which makes it so sad that he's stuck out west. there's just no way of telling how he really stacks up. now, if the derby were run in cali, i'd play him to win the thing. but i don't trust the racing out there to tell you who really can do what. it's why square eddie was coming to oaklawn-not all horses like it out there. you have to find where they fit.

Comparing Southwest closing splits
 

Two races prior to the Southwest, Oaklawn ran a $30,000 claimer for older fillies and mares at the same one mile distance as the Southwest. Old Fashioned’s winning time was 1.76 seconds faster than the final time of that claiming race, which was won by Nine M.M.. Old Fashioned ran his final furlong in 13.18 seconds. Nine M.M. ran her final furlong in 13.22 seconds. Old Fashioned was half a length off the lead with a quarter to run, and the final quarter mile in the Southwest was run in 26.37 seconds. Nine M.M. won her race going wire to wire, with the final quarter run in 26.41 seconds.

Granted, it was Old Fashioned's first start in almost three months, and he chased a fast opening half, but I expected the top dog on the Derby road to finish much faster than a Delta mare.

The Derby is a long ways out. Everything will sort itself out during the next few months. I think Old Fashioned is a serious racehorse. But I'm looking forward to seeing Hello Broadway run two turns as I think he has talent and will improve with natural maturation and running long. Danger To Society ran a clunker in the Holy Bull but he ran well prior to that debacle. He wouldn't be the first horse to run a dud and come back to make his mark on the Derby Trail.

Who's running in the FOY?
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...tch_021309.pdf

According to Privman/Watchmaker Derby Watch Capt Candy Man,This One's for Phil, Beethoven, West Side Bernie are running.

Should be an interesting race.

Imperial Council behind
 

Why is IP behind. Old FAsioned has 4 races. IP has 3. Both have one race this year. IC has had 8 works since Dec 31. He Rac 6.5 and 7 furlongs a 2 year old. Old Fashioned had 6 furlong a mile race and Remson. Last year Big Brown did not run until March 7th.

now that is true. i remember when a certain horse ran a clunker, the trainer explained why the horse ran badly, and was attacked by many. yeah, sure, he had a lung infection....
afleet alex came back well from that debacle...

has he run a mile, or around two turns yet? maybe some think he should have by now, if he hasn't. i haven't been paying him much attention, so i honestly don't know what he has done as yet.

I disagree with your accessment about Pioneer of The Nile not taking to a true dirt race course. He's only run on turf, Poly @ Keeneland, Pro Ride @ Santa and Cushion Track @ Hollywood. While it's likely Baffert will take the California road to the Derby, he has shipped horses east to prep in the past. It would not surprise me if he runs Pioneer in the Wood Memorial. Baffert is not a big fan of these synthetic tracks and might want to find out if he has a dirt horse prior to the Derby.

I just can't picture Shug rolling the dice like Dutrow did and entering Imperial Council in the FL Derby and then the Derby. Who knows though? It's a different world now with Derby preps.

who knows
 

It is a whole new world. I think allowance and then wood or Gotham and wood. Shug is cautious but why even start training him late in December if he's thinking Belmont or Travers? You can't train all spring for the Belmont.

Really? You think Baffert is anxious to expose Pioneerof the Nile for the ordinary turf horse he is by running him on dirt before the Derby when he can be the likely favorite to win the $750,000 Gr. I Santa Anita Derby? I'd think this one through again.

Here's the pp's of the the Derby winners from 1992 to 2008.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...rbywinners.pdf

That was clearly his worst career race, and he still won. Bad enough that wiseguys let him go off at 7/2 in the Rebel with Purge favored. As much as I think Old Fashioned is the correct current Derby favorite, this might have been his best career race.

Note in Davidowitz' column about the downhill not affecting races run at a mile.

Incidentally, I remember that column specifically because it made me decide that Peace Rules could be forgiven for the extremely slow final 3F's in the Blue Grass (and even though he didn't win the Derby, he ran extremely well) and Sir Cherokee being an easy toss.

Peace Rules :{>: He'd be unstoppable in the older male division now!

Obviously being a part of a legit pace will take its toll.
47 seconds is nothing like 45 seconds. Totally different world.

However, I agree that it wasn't a champion type of finish. Times was mediocre. He hasn't shown that he's best yet. THey all still have a lot to prove.

That's a good point. But don't you think he'd like to know if he has a dirt horse? Baffert loves the attention of the Derby spotlight but he usually only goes to the race if he thinks he has a legit chance.

I find it ironic that the owner of Pioneer of The Nile got into a spat with Joe Harper at DelMar and removed all his horses from So Cal. Now he has a Derby contender who is proven on So Cal synthetic tracks and is a huge question mark when it comes to running ondirt.

Peace Rules was as game of a horse as there was. He always ran hard and gave an honest effort.

those horses ALL run good out west unless something really pressures them in a race.
Baffert is going Cali all the way to kentucky

He would CRUSH these, even at his less-than-preferred distance of a mile and a quarter.

I'd imagine he knows already what he has and he'll maximize the opportunities for him. (Or try to considering the variable of the mercurial ownership involved.)

I think that is what is amusing about this conversation about Old Fashioned. When Peace Rules was running I remember reading on the boards that he was never brilliant enough and not very good because at the time there were some really nice horses running. Now we have a horse who, while lacking true jaw-dropping brilliance, of Derby Contenders past, has been checking the appropriate boxes and like you said is the deserving Derby favorite, yet on this board and others there are people who seem to think OF isn't deservent or head of the class. Perhaps they're holding out for brilliance we may (or may not) be seeing this year.

You're probably correct in your accessment of Pioneer of The Nile.
I don't like his chances when he moves to Churchill Downs dirt. He could clunk up for a board placing but I think that's a best case scenario. If he wins the Kentucky Derby I'll be ripping tickets.

How do you think he'll run on CD dirt?

Here are the charts for the races at Oaklawn on Monday 2/16.

http://www.drf.com/drfChartIndexPick...&DATE=20090216

Quality Road, Capt. Candyman Can, Notonthesamepage, This Ones For Phil, Beethoven, Theregoesjojo, Taqarub, Break Water Edison and Jack Spratt.

It's February 16. Why does there have to be a "head of the class" right now? Is it that crazy to wait until a few more preps are run? I'd say at least half of the horses that'll be in the Derby starting gate haven't even gone two turns yet. Old Fashioned looks like a nice horse, but I don't think it's outlandish to hold off on calling him the horse to beat.

If I got my choice of horse from the SW it would have to be Flat Out. I thought that colt had a very nice run

I thought Flat Out was exposed. I could be wrong though. These horses are getting so ridiculously slow that he could clunk up for a placing in a TC race.

Aside from the mysterious sixth race that completely fell apart, no horse came from further than 2 1/4 lengths back to win all day. Three horses went wire-to-wire, and another three were never further than a length behind.

If you like Old Fashioned you better hope he's a lot better than he was today.

He probably is......but the real question is how much better.

If this was his final prep it would be cause for concern. However considering it was his first race in three months and he had to press a fast horse and he put that horse away and won I think it was a good effort.

It's early on the trail and we still have Hello Broadway going two turns at Tampa in the TB Derby. The FOY might have a runner or two that are serious racehorses with a legiit Derby chance.

Why did you dislike Old Fashioned race? He probably progesses off this race.This was the first time he was near a fast early pace and he beat the winner playing Silver City's game.

What's to like? He was on a pace that was mildly fast, where his distance challenged co-dueler finished second, and only a horse that broke four lengths behind the field made up any ground.

He should improve, but today's race was singularly unimpressive, especially given the hype he has received. He might be a good horse. We'll see.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/49261.htm

Some guy that they quote...Steve Byk, whoever that is ;)...pointed out the matching half miles for Old Fashioned and Smarty Jones. Smarty got it done later in the Derby obviously. Doesn't mean O.F. will but is it better to compare him to a claiming mare or to a past Derby prepper/winner? I get that they ran on the same day but we gotta put this thing in context of a bigger plan.

didn't baffert say he would wait til the ky derby to find out if pioneer can handle the surface? i also don't see him leaving a good thing, for a possibly not so good thing. the $$ is in cali, and seemingly ripe for the picking by his horse. besides, if he ships to churchill and loses, everyone will excuse it, and back to cali/syns he'll go. no harm, no foul.

So if Notonthesamepage or Taqarub wins a one-turn mile by a length, you would take that horse over Old Fashioned?

i think with it being only mid-february, that it's too soon to decide who is 'head of the class'.
hell, oftentimes we've run the classics and there is still debate on that subject.

flat out was closing late-what do you feel about his run based on how the track had been playing?
also, how possible is it to tinker with a track to benefit a horses running style-in this case, old fashioned?
it would certainly help oaklawns cause to have him win, and win big, wouldn't it?
and i'm not accusing anyone of anything untoward, i'm asking if it's possible?

The track might have been speed favoring... but considering the hot pace ... you can't move up Flat Out that much...even with his start.

I think you might find a possible live horse or two to bet next out if you go through the races there yesterday with a slow early -fast late race shape and look for a closer who either had some trouble or was hung wide. Looking for a such horse in a race that was run fast early - slow late wouldn't be as bright of an idea.

thanks!

What? So it's "better" to compare two times from five years apart than it is to compare times on the same day?

Did the Beyer come back from Old Fashion yet?

I wonder about stuff like that sometimes too. I'm no track superintendent, but I'd think it's possible.