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-   -   "In The Spotlight" with Dr. SwineSmeller (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24413)

my miss storm cat 08-11-2008 04:50 PM

Not getting involved in this but sorry for Masterful Miss who I think maybe had a little chat with Chocolate Lava before her race.....

Rudeboyelvis 08-11-2008 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller
8/11/08 Coast to Coast with Dr. SwineSmeller
Del Mar Race's 2 and 3, post 2:32 Pacific time.

Should Chocolate Lava fail to set the grass afire at Del Mar today, I'm buying a two dollar ticket on a Pacific freighter bound for Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Once there, I'm going to hike my happy @** up Mt. Kilauea and experiment with bungy jumping into Kilauea's active volcanic crater using kite string for a bungy cord. That is if I don't have to just swim out and feed myself to the California coastal great white sharks because I didn't have a lousy two dollars left in my pocket for a cheap freighter ticket. I think I can get the kite string donated. I can probably get the two dollars and the kite string donated.

Dead last, Sport...Keep up the fine work, and when you jump into the volcano, make sure some one is there to tape it and put it up on YouTube for us...

Rudeboyelvis 08-11-2008 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Chocalate Lava is a 4 year old who has raced 14 times. How does her sales price from over two years ago enter in to the equation for her chances today.

Jim, Everyone was overpaying for Orientate's back then...Now his offspring barely bring his advertised stud fee. Most of them are gone from the track by 4 as I'm sure you know they're not the soundest lot in the bunch....

A 4yo Orientate with just 14 career starts??!! Red Flag City...It is just refreshing to meet one of the guys who is fueling the pools for us

Rudeboyelvis 08-11-2008 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller
A bunch of drivel followed by:

I'll play In The Poconos for $20 WIN. I'll also play a $5 exacta box coupling #1A In The Poconos with #7 Shade of Moonlight.
Dr. SwineSmeller

Gotta hand it to you bro... Back to back win picks that BOTH finish dead last. They ought to give you a consolation DD for something for that....
You definately keep it amusing

ArlJim78 08-11-2008 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis
Jim, Everyone was overpaying for Orientate's back then...Now his offspring barely bring his advertised stud fee. Most of them are gone from the track by 4 as I'm sure you know they're not the soundest lot in the bunch....

A 4yo Orientate with just 14 career starts??!! Red Flag City...It is just refreshing to meet one of the guys who is fueling the pools for us

and i guess by this reasoning Chocolate Lava would also outclass Zenyatta because she sold for $400K while Zenyatta was a discount $50K horse.

Rudeboyelvis 08-11-2008 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
and i guess by this reasoning Chocolate Lava would also outclass Zenyatta because she sold for $400K while Zenyatta was a discount $50K horse.

Exactly...Never realized how easy this game was to figure out...:$: :zz: :$:

Dr.SwineSmeller 08-11-2008 07:18 PM

I don't like sharks the most
 
I'll let ya'll vote, do I take the Mount Kilauea kite string bungy jump or swim with the Pacific great white sharks? If I get my choice, can I borrow two dollars for a cheap boat ride?

Dead last twice today. Tried to beat the chalk, didn't happen. Oh well, the sun will rise tomorrow. Not the least discouraged. Picked 9 races so far, that equals a full card. It's not the first time I've lost to a full card. Four days deep and I'm behind, but the way I figure, I've got (whichever comes first) 26 more days left in a full month play to get back up, or go down $1000 in the bank first.

RECAP>
Del Mar Race 2- It is now believed that horse dyslexia is contageous. After being sneezed on by Bahama Mama in the paddock, Chocolate Lava took a right in the first turn and was finally roped and tied after running wild and harassing the women down on the Sunset Strip. Ralston Purina LLC has offered Mona Talla a bid of $40 to salvage the beligerent three legged $400,000 cart mule at the Del Mar Dud Sale.

Del Mar Race 3- In The Poconos fired backwards out of the gate and was last seen hitchhiking east out of LA on I-40 wearing a "Pennsylvania or Bust" sign around his neck.

Today's wagers: $80, return $0.
Total called wagers to date: $288 bet, return $78.

Derby Trail WPS record: 9 starts, 1-1-4. Mythical $2 Win on each= $18 bet, return $5.20.
Dr. SwineSmeller

Dr.SwineSmeller 08-11-2008 07:34 PM

Involved in what?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat
Not getting involved in this....

I can't tell you about what I'm not involved in either Miss storm Cat, For the 1st time in all my message board days, I have used the IGNORE command (two days ago), and I threw the key in the pig's trough.

Delvis reminds me of why I make my dogs stay outside.

Dr. swineSmeller

my miss storm cat 08-11-2008 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

Dead last twice today. Tried to beat the chalk, didn't happen. Oh well, the sun will rise tomorrow.

Damned right it will.

Keep posting your picks. Kilauea isn't going anywhere so don't be in such a rush to go bungee jumping.

my miss storm cat 08-11-2008 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller
I can't tell you about what I'm not involved in either Miss storm Cat, For the 1st time in all my message board days, I have used the IGNORE command (two days ago), and I threw the key in the pig's trough.

Delvis reminds me of why I make my dogs stay outside.

Dr. swineSmeller

Posted before I saw this.....

I've never used the ignore feature, although I've been tempted at times. :D

Dr.SwineSmeller 08-11-2008 07:43 PM

No apologies necessary
 
[quote=my miss storm cat...Masterful Miss who I think maybe had a little chat with Chocolate Lava before her race.....[/QUOTE]

At least Masterful took off frontwards out of the gate, navigated the first turn, and crossed the finish line. That is tons better than I can say for my 2 ghost plays today!

Dr. SwineSmeller

GPK 08-11-2008 07:44 PM

Rare is the occasion when I am rendered speechless....but......

Coach Pants 08-11-2008 07:53 PM


Dr.SwineSmeller 08-11-2008 08:01 PM

Go Baby Go!!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
and i guess by this reasoning Chocolate Lava would also outclass Zenyatta because she sold for $400K while Zenyatta was a discount $50K horse.

Nope Jim, I'm with you on Zenyatta 110%. She is the grizzly bear they all will try to beat on Breeder's Cup Day. When they're fast they're fast.

I've taken two early wagers out for the Breeders' Cup. Zenyatta and Casino Drive. I got 10/1 on Casino for the Classic the day after he scratched from the Belmont Stakes. Of course if he/she fails to go to post I still lose.

I'll say it straight up. I think Casino smokes the Classic field, no matter who is in.

Here is why, as sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. (Just like Dilemma). Notice the crowd as they gaze at the million dollar yearling all grown up as he dances for them in the paddock and prepares to leave Mint Lane in his dust in this years Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont. (I framed this pic for my living room wall). Shades of his grandpa, Secretariat>

http://horseracing.about.com/od/late...a051008a_3.htm Thanks Vanessa Ng for the great shot!

Rudeboyelvis 08-11-2008 08:10 PM

....Aaaand the hits just keep a comin'... I agree w/ MMSC - please keep this thread going, I may have no need for cable TV :D

Coach Pants 08-11-2008 08:13 PM


Rudeboyelvis 08-11-2008 08:18 PM

OUT - Analysis, DRF, TG

IN - original sale price, pedigreequery.com, paddock horsey pictures

I'm starting to get it... :eek:



geeker2 08-11-2008 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller

Del Mar Race 3- In The Poconos fired backwards out of the gate and was last seen hitchhiking east out of LA on I-40 wearing a "Pennsylvania or Bust" sign around his neck.

Dr. SwineSmeller

No such Freeway in LA:p

otisotisotis 08-11-2008 09:15 PM

ahh yes! Sales Tags,Casino Drive! Here's a classic ESPN thread -

http://boards.espn.go.com/boards/mb/...2884881&lid=36

Dr.SwineSmeller 08-11-2008 09:38 PM

You Have No Heart Geeker
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by geeker2
No such Freeway in LA:p

If you were a tired horse from way up in the Poconos trying to get back home after you'd just rode 4000 miles in hot trailer with a nose hole from Pennsylvania to California only to have dirt clods for dinner, you'd be a little disoriented too when you first hit the road trying to figure out which way was east. Don't blame the horse for being lost.

Dr. SwineSmeller

Dr.SwineSmeller 08-11-2008 10:42 PM

Casino Drive can outrun an Indy car
 
[quote=otisotisotis]ahh yes! Sales Tags,Casino Drive! Here's a classic ESPN thread -

Howdy Otisx3. Proof positive right there that I am a rabid Casino Drive fan. I admit it. It's the sport of kings fan in me. Casino is my main boy! It has nothing to do with a $100 bet. It's different in the Classic. Winner is world champ. There is no bigger rush to a sports fan than to hear the final gun fire and see your home team crowned champs. For thoroughbred fans, that's the Classic baby!!

Dr.SwineSmeller 08-11-2008 11:21 PM

[quote=ArlJim78]she will always be a $400K purchase no matter how many times she races or how poorly. it has no relation to her current form relative to the rest of the field today. this $400K baby took nine tries to break her maiden and had to ship out to Fairplex to get it done.

So far Jim, I've made my decision to make a play 3 of 9 times because of purchase price. And it is obvious when I am doing so.
Those three horses have went 1-0-1, for -.80 cents on three $2 win bets. I'll recap the purchase price play totals when I resign from the thread in 26 more days. Then will come final judgement.

ArlJim78 08-11-2008 11:33 PM

[quote=Dr.SwineSmeller]
Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
she will always be a $400K purchase no matter how many times she races or how poorly. it has no relation to her current form relative to the rest of the field today. this $400K baby took nine tries to break her maiden and had to ship out to Fairplex to get it done.

So far Jim, I've made my decision to make a play 3 of 9 times because of purchase price. And it is obvious when I am doing so.
Those three horses have went 1-0-1, for -.80 cents on three $2 win bets. I'll recap the purchase price play totals when I resign from the thread in 26 more days. Then will come final judgement.

the final judgement is already in, its a dumb idea to ignore on-track performace in favor of the sales price comparison.

Dr.SwineSmeller 08-12-2008 12:35 AM

Tick tock
 
[quote=ArlJim78]
Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller
the final judgement is already in, its a dumb idea to ignore on-track performace in favor of the sales price comparison.

Time will write the book Jim.

Best of luck at the windows.

Dr.SwineSmeller 08-12-2008 01:34 AM

8/12/08 Coast to Coast at Deleware Park
 
8/12/08 Coast To Coast with Dr. SwineSmeller
Deleware Park Race 5, post 2:33 Eastern time.

Jungle Cat is going to have to show me he can't race for me to believe it. Garnering no respect in his first out at 12/1 on the morning line doesn't deter my cat curiousity. I'm gambling on pedigree here. With calculator in hand, I have to begin to work my bank at this point to catch a value bet to get back in the game. Jungle Cat fits the value bill. Jungle Cat's two grandsires are Seattle Slew and Storm Cat. His sire, Forrest Cat, stands stud for a $35,000 fee at Brookdale Farm in Kentucky. But here is #6 Jungle Cat opening at a $25,000 claiming tag. It just doesn't fit.

Jockey J A Bracho gets only this one mount today. He's got one shot to put dinner on the table and his baby needs new shoes.

If Jungle Cat will get up for me today at 12/1, I'll be doing the jungle boogie with a plus side bankroll tonight. I'll play Jungle Cat for $26 WIN. Go Baby Go!!

Dr. SwineSmeller

TheSpyder 08-12-2008 06:49 AM

[quote=Dr.SwineSmeller]
Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
I'll recap the purchase price play totals when I resign from the thread in 26 more days. Then will come final judgement.


geeker2 08-12-2008 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller
If you were a tired horse from way up in the Poconos trying to get back home after you'd just rode 4000 miles in hot trailer with a nose hole from Pennsylvania to California only to have dirt clods for dinner, you'd be a little disoriented too when you first hit the road trying to figure out which way was east. Don't blame the horse for being lost.

Dr. SwineSmeller


Uh...OK..but there still isn't an I-40 east/west/north or south out of LA............it's a game of creditability...and it would appear you are having some difficulty in this area.

Rudeboyelvis 08-12-2008 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geeker2
Uh...OK..but there still isn't an I-40 east/west/north or south out of LA............it's a game of creditability...and it would appear you are having some difficulty in this area.


Geeker - He's never let silly things like facts cloud his judgement.... He only goes by pedigree and pictures, yet in this race Graham Motion has a colt entered that's an Elusive Quality out of a Boundary mare, which actually has a chance to hit the board, if not win at a pretty square price of 6-1 m/l.
Broke mdn last out by 7 and 3/4ths for 20k, vs. his impecably bred pick that barely squeeked out a neck for mdn 16k last.

ArlJim78 08-12-2008 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller
Jungle Cat fits the value bill. Jungle Cat's two grandsires are Seattle Slew and Storm Cat. His sire, Forrest Cat, stands stud for a $35,000 fee at Brookdale Farm in Kentucky. But here is #6 Jungle Cat opening at a $25,000 claiming tag. It just doesn't fit.

Isn't this considered a negative sign? Are you not making the case against the horse you're playing to win?

Also how can you make a value play based on the morning line odds of a first time starter the day before the race?

Rudeboyelvis 08-12-2008 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller
8/12/08 Coast To Coast with Dr. SwineSmeller
Deleware Park Race 5, post 2:33 Eastern time.

Jungle Cat is going to have to show me he can't race for me to believe it. Garnering no respect in his first out at 12/1 on the morning line doesn't deter my cat curiousity. I'm gambling on pedigree here. With calculator in hand, I have to begin to work my bank at this point to catch a value bet to get back in the game. Jungle Cat fits the value bill. Jungle Cat's two grandsires are Seattle Slew and Storm Cat. His sire, Forrest Cat, stands stud for a $35,000 fee at Brookdale Farm in Kentucky. But here is #6 Jungle Cat opening at a $25,000 claiming tag. It just doesn't fit.

Jockey J A Bracho gets only this one mount today. He's got one shot to put dinner on the table and his baby needs new shoes.

If Jungle Cat will get up for me today at 12/1, I'll be doing the jungle boogie with a plus side bankroll tonight. I'll play Jungle Cat for $26 WIN. Go Baby Go!!

Dr. SwineSmeller

Elusive Quality stands for 100K. please help us follow your logic, for it is fascinating....Also it must be comforting to know that the connections and agents have so much confidence in him that the best he can draw is a morning exercise rider with 27 starts at the meet....







hoovesupsideyourhead 08-12-2008 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis
Elusive Quality stands for 100K. please help us follow your logic, for it is fascinating....Also it must be comforting to know that the connections and agents have so much confidence in him that the best he can draw is a morning exercise rider with 27 starts at the meet....







OOOOOOO!!!!!

miraja2 08-12-2008 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller
I'll say it straight up. I think Casino smokes the Classic field, no matter who is in.

Based on what?

Coach Pants 08-12-2008 01:22 PM


Antitrust32 08-12-2008 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Based on what?


Based on his awesome quarantine skills.. duh.

MISTERGEE 08-12-2008 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr.SwineSmeller
8/12/08 Coast To Coast with Dr. SwineSmeller
Deleware Park Race 5, post 2:33 Eastern time.

Jungle Cat is going to have to show me he can't race for me to believe it. Garnering no respect in his first out at 12/1 on the morning line doesn't deter my cat curiousity. I'm gambling on pedigree here. With calculator in hand, I have to begin to work my bank at this point to catch a value bet to get back in the game. Jungle Cat fits the value bill. Jungle Cat's two grandsires are Seattle Slew and Storm Cat. His sire, Forrest Cat, stands stud for a $35,000 fee at Brookdale Farm in Kentucky. But here is #6 Jungle Cat opening at a $25,000 claiming tag. It just doesn't fit.

Jockey J A Bracho gets only this one mount today. He's got one shot to put dinner on the table and his baby needs new shoes.

If Jungle Cat will get up for me today at 12/1, I'll be doing the jungle boogie with a plus side bankroll tonight. I'll play Jungle Cat for $26 WIN. Go Baby Go!!

Dr. SwineSmeller

got the price of 35-1 but unfortunately ran next to last

geeker2 08-12-2008 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE
got the price of 35-1 but unfortunately ran next to last


"It's like a nightmare, isn't it? It just keeps getting worse and worse, doesn't it?"

Rudeboyelvis 08-12-2008 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis
Geeker - He's never let silly things like facts cloud his judgement.... He only goes by pedigree and pictures, yet in this race Graham Motion has a colt entered that's an Elusive Quality out of a Boundary mare, which actually has a chance to hit the board, if not win at a pretty square price of 6-1 m/l.
Broke mdn last out by 7 and 3/4ths for 20k, vs. his impecably bred pick that barely squeeked out a neck for mdn 16k last.


WINS paying 12.80 - Poor Dr. Pig, can't even follow his own advice :zz:

robfla 08-12-2008 02:27 PM

Smell good. Smoke more pork butts.

declansharbor 08-12-2008 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis
WINS paying 12.80 - Poor Dr. Pig, can't even follow his own advice :zz:

Nice call RBE!! I should have laid some doucets on him while I was on the road...All is good though, off to see Radiohead tonight!!!

Rudeboyelvis 08-12-2008 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor
Nice call RBE!! I should have laid some doucets on him while I was on the road...All is good though, off to see Radiohead tonight!!!

You and I both!! In and out of meetings all day and no access to the ole' online account.... Very logical Trifecta (with the scratches of National Guard and Proudest Native) paid 331.00 for 2 beans... Gotta hand it to the good Doc, he's picking out some great races to beat him at.... Enjoy the show, man!


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