Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
First of all, I am surprised by Grasshopper losing, and at face value I guess I overrated him. Regardless of circumstances, I am surprised that Going Ballistic could beat him. But, one of the joys of the game is how surprising it can be.
However, the biggest story has to be the continuance of the Pletcher barn underperforming. Octave, not exactly one of my favorite horses, but still very much the one to beat, was a very pedestrian second in the Cotillion. As an isolated result one could easily say this is unsurprising, and perhaps it was, but considering how much many horses from that once invincible barn have been underperforming, it does at least raise questions.
Then there's Fairbanks. OK, he lost to a nice horse in Brass Hat, who received a poor ride in the Woodward where he easily could have been second, but considering the pace scenerio and his pps coming into the race I would say it is at least fair to say he also underperformed. Once again, taken in isolation, perhaps the result was far from shocking, but I don't think these results can any longer be taken in isolation.
Then there's Any Given Saturday. He won, just as he was supposed to, against a decidely sub-par group. However, he worked pretty hard to win rather unimpressively, and while maybe it is just what Pletcher wanted leading up to the BC, it hardly resembled his dominent performances in the Dwyer and Haskell. Maybe Helsinki is improving, but all things considered, one would have expected Any Given Saturday to have handled that one more easily.
Now, none of these horses ran poorly, and all at least showed up, but as a group, and in conjunction with the poor results that barn has shown in NY since the beginning of August, there has to be at least some question as to what is different from the last five years or so. After years of many horses seemingly overperforming they now seem to be consistently underperforming. Maybe it's just the law of averages catching up but after seven weeks of these kinds of results it's surprising that more people aren't at least discussing it.
I know, Lawyer Ron was great in Saratoga, as was Wait a While in her return to form in the Ballston Spa. Pletcher is to be congratulated for the terrific work he did with Lawyer Ron as he clearly has managed to turn this horse from a solid, if unspectacular, performer into perhaps the best horse in the country. I look forward to seeing if he can duplicate his sensational Saratoga form in another venue. No sane person would suggest that Todd Pletcher isn't a great trainer but for the last seven weeks his horses have been dramatically underperforming, especially in NY, and this weekend was yet another example.
Maybe we all just got used to him seeming invincible, and his extraordinary accomplishments leading up the TC races, and then leading up to the BC, were taken too lightly. Maybe some of us, myself included, should have been more impressed, and should thus be less surprised to see the recent more realistic results. I guess after all those years of dynamite results it's hard for me to not at least be confused by what's recently occuring.
One of the greatest things about this game is that it eventually humbles everyone.
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