Plays for 5/18 picking up where I left off for Round 6....

GG R1 3:05 #1 Eastern Sand (coupled, only playing this one)
GG R2 3:34 #5 Groupofthefuture
GG R3 4:03 #1 Souvenir Sands
GG R8 6:34 #2 Smiler

Canterbury R1 7:00 #5 Angel Smoke
Canterbury R2 7:27 #4 Wingbrook
Canterbury R4 8:22 #1 Before the Storm
Canterbury R8 10:12 #5 A Team Leader

If I get knocked out, I'll start Round 7 another day. Not automatically going into the next round. That hasn't worked so well for me, has it now? :)

Your choice, but I don't see why you wouldn't want to just start right into Round 7. Do you think missing one has some bearing on missing a later one the same day?

Anyway, I'll stay tuned...

--Dunbar

jman, you might want to consider the Barbaro Stakes on Preakness day. Chelokee dominates this field, and the 2nd best horse, Soaring By, probably will skip it (according to Pletcher in DRF), making it a 6-horse field.

--Dunbar

I don't know, it doesn't really make sense.... but it's more of a "re-grouping" thing. I'd rather start fresh when I flub it up. If I haven't hit one of these by the end of this round, I am going to a "one or two a day/best play of the day" strategy... I'm going a little too fast I think. A few of these races, even though they are 6 horses, aren't all that distinguishable.

After this round, he might have to be my play of the day tomorrow! :D

ah, what the??? boy, that sucks... Eastern Sand ran off the board in the 4th leg of Round 6. Geez....


Okay, I know I said I wouldn't continue if I lost, but I wasn't planning on going out so quickly....so, Round 7 starts with Race 2 at Golden Gate. I can't believe this insanity!!

To start off Round 7...

#5 Groupofthefuture got 2nd and paid $2.20 - Running Total - $110

#1 Souvenir Sands got 3rd and paid $2.10 - Running Total - $116

#2 Smiler WON and paid $2.10 - Running Total - $122

Don't have time to update all of Round 7 right now, but that one ended a little prematurely as well... Angel Smoke got 2nd, Wingbrook killed the round.


Before the Storm and A Team Leader started off Round 8 on the right foot. I will go with Chelokee in the Barbaro Stakes today as my 3rd pick in Round 8

#5 Angel Smoke got 2nd and paid $2.10 - Running Total - $128

-----End of Round 7-----

-----Start of Round 8-----

#1 Before the Storm got 2nd and paid $2.20 - Running Total - $110

#5 A Team Player WON and paid $2.40 - Running Total - $132

Chelokee WON and paid $2.10 - Running Total - $139

(emphasis added)


I tend to agree that it would be more interesting if you were more selective, using the kind of big fav/short field that would tempt bridgejumpers.

Good job keeping your stats, btw!

--Dunbar

well here goes for today... 2 races I can feel real solid about. If these don't Show, well....

Canterbury R6 3:53 - #3 Run With Joy

Mountaineer R3 6:40 - #5 Fresado

and with the SCR of Vitruvius in the Peter Pan I'll take Sightseeing in the 8th at Belmont

Sightseeing WON and paid $2.10 - Running Total - $146

Run With Joy got 2nd and paid $2.40 - Running Total - $175

Fresado WON and paid $2.40 - Running Total - $210

I have one for 5/21, maybe another one pending scratches.

Woodbine R1 (12:10) - #5 Gantu

Gantu WON and paid $2.10 - Running Total - $221

Need 3 more to finish off this round.

1 more, Calder R8 - #4 Frosty Secret

Round 8 stops right there! Dagummit...


That was a decent little run... I would be curious to see what my win % has been so far. I don't have time to figure it up right now. It's gotta be somewhere in the 50% range. Just betting WIN in short fields might be a more profitable strategy, but this is pretty fun.

Ouch! You had sight of the finish line!

--Dunbar

Hi jman5581,
I was fooling around with show parlays last year for awhile. I started with $5 and parlayed until I reached $20. At that point I began to wager half of the total, giving me a cushion in case one ran out. It was very tedious and I reached a point where I felt I was letting some decent win bets and pick 3 opportunities get by, particularly when I reached a profit level of $80 and I was losing $40 on a show bet when I could have been investing $40 in a pick 3 using multiple horses. However all said and done I made a small $20 profit and never lost my original $5. I played about 25 races over a 10 day period before giving up.
Good luck on your endeavor, I may start one up again myself.

PCL, it's not a bad way to turn a small little bit of money into something more substantial to play on exotics and multi's. As you said it can be tedious, especially dealing with 5 or 10 bucks. I would recommend someone do a parlay with a little larger amount of $. Maybe $50 or $100. It's not too hard to string a few together (okay, so maybe 10 in a row is a little agressive, so far at least) and before you know it you've doubled up and you can take that $50 or $100 you made and play a few P3's or a P4. You use something that's hopefully less risky to have an opportunity to do something more risky. And hopefully get more reward. Some would say why not just take your $100 and play a P4, but the object here is to parlay some profit and still have your $100 in your pocket when you play the P4.

Good Luck Port Conway Lane. Nice name.

Round 9

Fairmount Park R1 - #4 Safeforsure - 2nd - paid $2.10 - Running Total = $105

Fairmount Park R2 #7 Stefanie C (see next post) - 2nd - paid $2.10 - Running Total = $110

Fairmount Park R4 - #1 Freestyle Spirit SCR Substitute #3 Cousin Bill 3rd - paid $2.20 - Running Total = $121

Fairmount Park R6 - #1 Cat on the Grass WON - paid $2.10 - Running Total = $127

Fairmount Park R7 - #6 Stop the Race WON - paid $2.60 - Running Total = $165

I'm feelin' it on FP today... R2 #7 Stefanie C

FP R7 - #6 Stop the Race

Just putting today's results at the end of the thread... I go ape on FP...it's like defending the home turf. :)

5/23

Suffolk R1 - #2 Cruisin on Faith (Out of the Money, try to figure that one out in a 5 horse field)

------Round 9-------

Suffolk R8 - #5 Carlow (my first pick ran 2nd, this one ran LAST)...


HOW MUCH HAVE I LOST IN TOTAL DUNBAR? THAT WOULD BE $900, BY THESE RULES.

------Round 10-------

Suffolk R9 - #9 Satire WON paid $2.20 - Running Total = $110

HOL R1 - #5 Eye Candy Sandi 2nd paid $2.10 - Running Total = $116

HOL R7 - #4 Idiot Proof WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $122

5/24

CD 2nd - Leo's Pegasus

BEL 8th - Harlington

HOL 1st - Gemstone Jean

HOL 3rd - Blue Cay

HOL 4th - Windy

Yup. You're at -900. You're going to need to finish a couple of 10-bet runs to get back into contention. So far what you've shown is how hard it is to win 10 show bets in a row!

btw, your Harlington pick would give me pause.

--Dunbar

He's done it on 10 mos. layoff before...


Let's assume the rules of this experiment were 5 straight rather than 10 straight. How often would a person have to win assuming a 75% profit can be shown on average for a 5 race parlay? Over half the time?

I'll take the 7 right now in the first at CD. Out of Aces

------Round 10-------

Suffolk R9 - #9 Satire WON paid $2.20 - Running Total = $110

HOL R1 - #5 Eye Candy Sandi 2nd paid $2.10 - Running Total = $116

HOL R7 - #4 Idiot Proof WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $122

5/24

CD R1 - #7 Out of Aces 3rd and paid $2.10 - Running Total = $128

CD R2 - #5 Leo's Pegasus 2nd paid $2.60 - Running Total = $166

HOL R1 - #2 Gemstone Jean WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $174

BEL R8 - #2 Harlington WON paid $2.50 - Running Total = $218

HOL R3 - #5 Blue Cay WON paid $2.80 - Running Total = $305

HOL R4 - #4 Windy 3rd paid $2.20 - Running Total = $336

Say you either lose 1 or win 0.75.
If X=% of time you need to win to break even, then

0.75 * X + (-1) * (1-X) = 0. because 1-X is the percent of time that you will lose.

.75X + (X-1) = 0

1.75X = 1

X = 57%.

That's how often you'd have to win to break even under your assumptions for 5-in-a-row.

--Dunbar

Round 10, 1 more...
 

------Round 10-------

Suffolk R9 - #9 Satire WON paid $2.20 - Running Total = $110

HOL R1 - #5 Eye Candy Sandi 2nd paid $2.10 - Running Total = $116

HOL R7 - #4 Idiot Proof WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $122

CD R1 - #7 Out of Aces 3rd and paid $2.10 - Running Total = $128

CD R2 - #5 Leo's Pegasus 2nd paid $2.60 - Running Total = $166

HOL R1 - #2 Gemstone Jean WON paid $2.10 - Running Total = $174

BEL R8 - #2 Harlington WON paid $2.50 - Running Total = $218

HOL R3 - #5 Blue Cay WON paid $2.80 - Running Total = $305

HOL R4 - #4 Windy 3rd paid $2.20 - Running Total = $336

GG Last Race - #1 Itza Hemi :)

ahhhhhhhhhhhhh dammitohell!!! I can't get to 10 for the life of me... that was a LOCK!!! What's goin' on??? Oh well, 9 straight....no luck on the 10th.

Round 11 to commence probably next week.

Hi again jman5581. It's a tough game. I was wondering where you would be now if you wagered only 1/2 your bankroll on each horse since you started. You certainly would have your initial wager whatever that may have been.
Anyway good luck on the next round.

I don't think that's necessarily true. Show me some numbers.

--Dunbar

Frustrating, I'm sure! But "a lock" in a maiden claimer? Also, another horse was 9-5, so your horse's 3-2 is not a sign of overwhelming support.

Tough loss, anyway.

--Dunbar

I'm not going back in the thread to track every wager made but the idea is that if the first wager was $100 and successful (example: first winner pays $2.20. Bankroll=$110. Next wager is $55 to show. Horse loses. Bankroll= $55. Next wager is $28 to show, so on and so forth. While the original $100 may not be left at this point in time the losses that jman5581 has incurred are limited and he has enough winners to offset a periodic loss.

I adjusted the amounts using my proposal and after 10 races it's back to square 1 and the original $100 is almost intact.

#1 Itza Hemi lost $95. bankroll =$95

Less risk = less reward, but I think the idea is fairly slick and could work out in one's favor over a LONG period of time... slow and steady can win the race. As in investing.

I was caught up in the moment, just trying to complete a round. I hate Golden Gate Fields.