He was slower than molasses tim taht day. he earned a nothing fig, and the trainer is ice cold going 4-40 so far this year. No way, no how.

No Chance. Didn't you read what Oracle said. :eek: I know somebody that thinks he could run a big race too. It wouldn't shock me if he got a piece of it.

Sure, no chance. Just like the $180 horse in a Grade I at Churchill.

Its a horse race anything can happen. Rock Lobster is not out of this by any means. Showing Up is a nice horse but never been on the weeds. Frenchys Cat, Kip de ville and Go Between are hardly world beaters.

I'm confused. Are you suggesting because Seek Gold upset the Foster that Rock Lobster can win the race Saturday?

Don't get me wrong, I have only begun looking at the pps for Saturday's race, and there is no doubt that Rock Lobster is an outsider. However, I will look a lot harder before throwing him out. Mike is right about one thing....he will have to improve a LOT to be competitive here.

I love Showing Up but any horse can win this race. They are all either untested on the grass or just not that impressive on the grass. My reasoning is that Showing Up would win this race against this field 1 out of every 2-3 times it is run, so I think 2-1 or better is a good bet.

I am suggesting that if a 90-1 shot can win a grade 1 against some of the top horses in the world, a horse like Rock Lobster could beat a field of unprove or unimpressive three year olds on the grass. Rock Lobster wouldn't be nearly as big a shock as Seek Gold.

Yeah I mean other than the fact that hes slow, stepping way up, and the trainer is ice cold, I see a whole lot I like about him!!! Oh, and did I mention that since so many people love to bet closers who finish like he did last time because they mistake a slow last part of the race that a horse clunked into to(confusing that close with talent) and that the trainer is 4-40 but still gets overbet off a race he won 8 years ago that he will be no value either/ gee thats just what I have been looking for!!!!!!!!!! A slow horse stepping up in class who will be overbet and is trained by a cold trainer. Sounds good to me!!!!

I just read who is trainer is. Now I see why you don't like him. Let me guess, you like Dutrows horse.

Well, I am not inclined to like Rock Lobster, but the second horse in his last race did come back with a big win. And, honestly, there aren't any proven killers in this field. It's not like Stream Cat and Go Between are monsters, Showing Up is both distance challenged and a major if on the turf, Outperformance had a very good trip in a race that collapsed last out, Roman Dynesty is a guess ( albeit an educated one ), Lewis Michael is another turf unknown ( though I would take him at his odds over Showing Up at his ridiculously deflated odds ). However, all those horses are more likely to win than Rock Lobster, along with Can't Beat It, who may be the best longshot in the race ( though Eddie Castro doesn't help ).

The problem with a horse like Rock Lobster is that not only does he have to improve substantially, but a whole slew of horses also have to fail to show up. The odds of both of those things happening are far greater than his odds will reflect.

Maybe we should key him in the fourth slot in the super.

Are you disputing my statistics? Wanna make a wager on that?

I wouldn't dispute anything you say, but Rock Lobster wins races. That said, betting against Showing Up in this race is like throwing money away. Dutrows $500K purchase won't even be competitive. Cornelio and Tagg are in for a nice paycheck this weekend. A future turf star will be born this weekend.

I agree, Rock Lobster wont be half the shocker that Seek Gold was. While I didnt think it was all that an impressive Stephen Foster, Seek Gold was a complete surprise and I heard no mention from anyone on here in any way.

Mike Dickinson is due for a win like this and this horse is more than capable. Like I said, there are no world beaters in here, outside of Showing Up, a 3rd tier of turf horses who if they ran this race 10 times, there would be perhaps 8 or 9 different winners.

I wasn't really following Barbaro that closely back then, but I was told Rock Lobster ran against him 1x and that he is a pretty good horse.

Rock Lobster was fourth, more than ten lengths behind Barbaro, with a maiden finishing third. That maiden bombed in a MSW on the turf Belmont Day in his next turf start.

He was 4th beaten 11 lengths in the Laurel Futurity that Barbaro won. He then shipped to Cali to run in a stakes race at SA that was rained off. You can't count that race against him. In his last race, the Woodlawn, he beat a very moderate group in a slow figure effort. The third place horse that day Unbridled behaviour is also entered in here. He's a closing horse that likes grass. Being by Mt Livermore I question his wanting to go any farther than he has. A useful horse no doubt.

Lewis Michael is far from being an unknown on the turf, he was like 5 or 6 lengths back from the monster Barbaro, and that was only his 3rd or 4th race....

Thanks, I don't know what the hell I was looking at. He looks like he could be a better turf horse than dirt horse who has improved recently.

Barbaro is not in here, nothing close to him is. I dont see the point of comparing how badly Rock Lobster got beat by Barbaro with how he shapes up in this spot. I think Lewis Michael is a better dirt horse. Showing Up is totally unknown on this surface and will be a very sort price versus his actual chance to win this. Stream Cat is also a closer, so why is this not held against him? Neither Kip De Ville or Go Between are significantly faster than Rock Lobster, the pace scenario and what kind of trip everybody gets will easily nullify any "advantage" you think they have over Lobster.

I think its a great spot to step out of the box on. I hope for those who bet Kip Deville, that he runs better than Love of Money did in the Stephen Foster. That was pretty awful.

Tim I completely don't understand what you just said. Stream Cat is not just a closer, hes a closer who is graded stakes winner with good figs. Are you really comparing him to Rock Lobster?
And what does love and Money have to do with deville? Am I missing something?

Same trainer is all Mike. No reason not to bet him but I just thought I'd bring it up because Love is Money burned a lot of people this weekend. Absolutely no relevance to this race.

The Lobster is right in the mix, if they go fast up front he has every right to be able to close into this. This is the kind of race that screams a price. Thinking maybe the Lobster goes off at 10/1, 12/1 at best.

Michael "The Mad Scientist" Dickinson's charge has a great chance to make a lot of noise in here.

So many folks so quick to completely dismiss Steam Cat here, eh?

I like Stream Cat here but it wouldn't surprise me if Showing Up won with little effort. SC is the most proven horse in the field and should win if Showing Up doesn't take to the turf. He breeding says he will though. If Showing Up moves up off his Kentucky Derby effort he is just too good for these horses. His lack of seasoning cost him in the derby but there are no derby horses in here. I just don't like the price you are likely to get on SU. I will probably bet the Stream Cat because he probably goes off at a longer price.

That Love of Money was just awful. Use him in a few bets and he just packed it in.

He'd only ever carried his speed that far once before and I am kind of surprised that anyone would be shocked that he didnt. You still dont make sense Tim. Dutrow's % is just about as high as anyone in the country. He sent out a loser, well umm, find me a trainer who doesnt. And Dickinson is a "gaudy" 4-42 this year with his starters at all tracks. Thats just atrocious, esepcially since he runs most at B level tracks. Dutrow wins 4 races in two days all the time. Good luck.

I dunno much, but speed @ Churchill doesn't work, period. I have been out there almost a dozen times this meet and can't count the times overall. Don't think I would use both hands the number of times I've counted a horse on the lead over a mile that wired em.

And Kazoo was a dismal third the other day at Monmouth behind Joey P and the mighty Slam Bammy! Ouch! Thats a race you would have thought he'd do much better. What happened to his early speed? :confused:

It wasnt the track bias, Love of Money was just plain awful. No excuses, needs to be dropped to a grade 3 next time.

Tim I'm sure someone will pass your thoughts on to the trainer who trained the HOY last year. LOL!!!
He needs a cut back in distance more than he needs anything else.

I don't think his race was terrible, but a big grade 1 and the classic distance might be a little over his head.

He only ever carried that speed two turns one time and that really was a fluke. He shipped to Philly Park on a day when the track was scraped to the bone, fast and speed favoring and he got real loose agaisnt some horses who werent very good. That was the Penn derby. Hes a very fast horse but two turns against top company is not his game. The race came up weak and he had been training good so he took a shot. The way Gander talks you would think he was 3-5 and breaking from the rail rather than a horse with a so so shot who drew the 10 hole in a two turn race.
The only way to get lucky and steal a race you aren't maybe the best in, is to take a shot. Kinda Like MOquette did with Seek Gold, or D wayne did one year in the Belmont with Commendable. Some guys only run their horses is soft spots to pad their % and never take a crack. They hurt their owners by doing this, picking out only soft spots and never giving the owners a chance to cash out and get lucky. Real good trainers do not pick out exclusively soft spots so they can get a win and pad the % totals.

I dont know about Dutrow. Always thought he gets to play by different rules in NY then the does anywhere else. KY is not NY.

I dont know what difference the odds make in dismissing an out of the money performance in a race where Dutrow was talking the horse up like he couldnt lose. "If my horse runs his race he will be very tough to beat" is what he said before the race. I thought he made a pretty easy lead for a horse of his ability and expected a better finish out of him thats all.

Not faulting Dutrow at all for trying this grade 1, I didnt think it came up all that particularly tough either. To be honest, I thought it was a real good chance for him to win a grade 1.

really? Then why is he winning at such a high clip in KY now with his stable there? And he ships to win stakes all over the place, even won the Wueens Plate last year. Thats what most guys say about Rick when he beats them, which he will do quite often.

Dutrow has a poor opinion about his horses based on the comments he makes publically. Earlier this year he declared that New York Hero was going to win the Met Mile ( he was virtually eased ). Before Wild Desert made this year's debut, a losing one in a minor stake, he intimated he was as good a horse as he has ever trained. There is no better example of why one should ignore trainer's comments than the irrelevent verbiage coming out of his mouth.

I guess I can have an opinion. Last I checked he has been caught before. Once you get caught you have to live with it. I just don't trust NY racing in general.

Frankel trained Wild Desert when he won the Queen's Plate ( over probably the worst field in history in that race ).

Oracle was wrong about something. No way. :)

.....and it filters to this board.

It was an over-medication of a legal drug administered more than 7 days in advance, that traced amounts stayed in the system on racing day.

Love this Mentality that people have everywhere. 'Oh my God, that trainer got suspended for illegal drugs. He's a juicer! He's a juicer!'

"I guess I can have an opinion. Last I checked he has been caught before. Once you get caught you have to live with it. I just don't trust NY racing in general."


Why is this such a popular opinion among horse racing fans? To be honest I am not in the game nor will I ever be, just a gambler and a fan. NY easily has the best racing consistently throughout the year. I find racing at Churchill horribly boring outside Derby & Oaks week, racing in California except for Santa Anita an utter mess, and use to like Gulfstream but that has gone down the tubes except for a few big Saturdays early in the meet.

People cheat everywhere. Its not exclusive to NY. Look at all the stuff thats gone down in Southern Cal over the past couple years.