Bluegrass Cat also wasn't coming of a maiden race in which he drifted out to the center of the track.

The Sammy Davis is a two-turn, 1 and 1/16 mile race at Tampa on February 17th and it is indeed a prep for the Tampa Derby, which is exactly one month later. The Hutcheson is a one-turn race at the championship distance of 7 and 1/2 furlongs and it is on the same card as the Fountain of Youth. I guess it can be considered a prep for the Florida Derby. It has also been mentioned as Street Sense's first of two preps for the Ky Derby.

Either way Curlin will face much better competition and the Sammy Davis would be on two weeks' rest. The logical spots for Curlin IMO are an allowance around Fla Derby Day, the Wood Memorial/Blue Grass/Ark Derby, then the Ky Derby, a la Eddington. In the same vein though, should Curlin not win that last graded race, he will not be in the gate on Derby Day.

NT

Agree with your spacing for him, but lets be honest he needs to devlop rapidly along that time frame. Of course if he wins the allowance and one of the three major preps you mention connections are going to throw him in the gate first Saturday in May no matter what. But he would need to be a freak of sorts and I hate using that word. The way he bore out is very troublesome in my opinion. Could be immaturity but while I am no expert, could be something a little more.

Still I agree skip Sam Davis and point for allowance to be sure to see what you really have under the hood. Logical first step to me

Thanks, I stand corrected
 

I should have checked Tampa before posting. Now, I see the reasoning involved in BTW's answer. My Mistake. Agree, with the Allowance race next theory, due to the horses' immaturity, reminds me of Corinthian last year. EAch year, we seem to see a hot now horse with no 2 yo foundation pop up somewhere in racing , and the chatter starts. Some are pushed too fast , trying to play catchup, while others realize the futility and accept the horse as a late developer, ala Lost in the Fog. Helen Pitts seems grounded to me and the owners are the same as Einstein, who took down a G1 on turf last winter at gulfstream, then put away after May 06. I would guess that she will try to get him a stakes win, but not at the expense of the horses' longterm well being. ;)

I think they should prepare for the Sam Davis and see what happens with Any Given Saturday. If AGS runs in the Sam Davis then seek out an allowance. If he doesn't run then the caliber of horses in the Sam Davis will be no better than what he will likely run into in a Gulfstream allowance this time of the year so you might as well throw him in that "stakes" race. Not sure if they are opposed to running in NY but the Gotham shouldn't come up particularly tough and is graded. Could be another option.

Get your point about Davis. Could very well be nothing else but a Nx1 if none of big guns step in. Saw your earlier post about Hutcheson and while that might be more logical progression distance wise, i feel competition there could be strong as isnt Street Sense among others pointing for it? Just hate seeing horse rushed along off maiden win and do have worries about bearing out in stretch

Yeah, I think the Hutcheson makes the most sense in terms of distance but it should draw a tough field (although Street Sense could scare a lot off). Pretty silly that Oaklawn is the only one offering a mile stakes between the Holy Bull on 2/3 and the Derby since that is the distance a lot of these lightly raced horses should be trying right now rather than jumping to 8.5 or 9.

Agree 100%. Puts connections in real tough spot

The only "Stakes" winners nominated to the Sam F. Davis are:

Air Lord winner of a 54k stake at DEL
All I Can Get winner of 2 MI State bred stakes at GLD
Buffalo Man winner of the Spectacular Bid at GP and Storm Cat at MED
Drums of Thunder winner of the What a Pleasure at CRC, but just ran Feb 3.
Storm in May winner of Sunshine Millions Dash at GP

and that is it out of the 31 noms.

So, yes it is a glorified N1X at 8.5f.

Thanks for info. Isnt Buffalo Man going Sat at FG in Risen Star? Leaves us with Storm in May and other maiden winners? I stand corrected than. Seems solid foeld to try to stretch out against if connections choose to

Not sure where anyone is going to run. Those were just off the nominations list.

Absolutely the place to see what you have. It is mostly horses that are in the same boat. Maiden and allowance winners looking to see what they have.

Yes, Buffalo Man drew one of the outside posts in the Risen Star.

Curlin is in the hands of new ownership

there's a shocker...please say he isn't headed to the desert

No, not going to Dubai, promise

Going to Baffert, Zito, Pletcher , Frankel ??? Must have paid a high price after that auspicious MSW win. Feel sorry for Helen Pitts though if he's given to another.

The colt is going to Steve Assmusen. Jess Jackson, Satish Sanan and George Bolton bought the colt and the original owners are retaining a small %. Just as an FYI, Ken McPeek bought him out of the Keeneland sale for $57k.

Eric

If Ken Mcpeek were training him he would be worth half of 57k