I'd put him at 50-1 to get to the gate of the Donn and actually win it, maybe more like 70-1 since he still has to get through this prep and come back in 4 weeks. Then it is three more months before there is another G1 on the east coast which means he has to stay healthy and in training and performing at a high enough level to even be entered in another G1. I think that is incredibly unlikely and that even if he does enter another G1 his chances of winning are 50-1 again.

At least Sir Greeley will almost certainly be in the Carter and Met Mile as he has been a durable horse so perhaps the 50-1 odds on him are too low if you think 35-1 is completely unrealistic.

This is silly....and you know that.

What do you think the odds of him actually running this prep, coming out of the race well and getting to the starting gate in the Donn are? Then what do you think the odds are of his beating Invasor and Premium Tap and everyone else that shows up if he does actually make it to the race? I'd say pretty fricken slim. I'm not talking what odds you'd get on the track since those are much lower than the actual odds due to takeout. Realistically he is at 2% against those horses and 67% to actually be there which multiplied together puts him right around 75-1.

I think it would be incredibly difficult for Strong Contender to beat Sir Greeley at 8f. I think it may even be difficult for SNS to beat Sir Greeley at 8f. I'm not going to make any judgement on Strong Contender til I see him run a couple races this year however. He could end up being a nice horse I think.

Whatever happened to Ministers Bid?

Whatever happened to Ministers Bid?

Hes pulling a sleigh with Dr. Pleasure.

He's in my stable mail, he has a couple of works at
Gulfstream, both i think were at 5 furlongs.

He's another horse I got slammed here for suggesting was being overrated after his allowance win at Belmont last year.

The good news? He's still eligible for a NW2X.

:D They can make it a four horse if they add in Baffert's two-some of Bob and John and Point Determined.

I thought he was over-rated as well, but he could at least be running to try to break those conditions!

I thought I remembered us agreeing on this one.

John Ward doesn't believe in running. Did you see his numbers for last year? 88 starters and 13 wins! The guy did not run ONE 2YO at Saratoga last summer! He has to have a minimum of 25. I find it mind boggling.

Of course, nothing is as crazy as him declaring Dr. Pleasure to be his best 3YO.

Is he the trainer that they said would loose his stalls somewhere if he didn't run more? Shame, because he has some pretty decent bloodlines in his barn, and a few nominated to the Derbies, but it certainly doesn't look like they will make it to the races.

strong contender this weekend. cool, at least there's one race to look forward to.

Not sure....but he should.

Those numbers are amazing concidering he has a barnfull of horses. I would estimate that he averages less than 1 start per horse. No wonder he has his own training barn at Keeneland.

I heard they have problems keeping help.

To bad, they get some very nicely bred horses, but they never seem to race. I just don't get it.

Hey Out of the Box, I see that Interior Designer is in against Rogue Agent on Friday. Please give us your take on the race. Dont worry, my paltry $50 win bet wont shake up the payoffs all that much :rolleyes:

What we really want to know is what exactly happened in Interior Designer's last race that prevented Arroyo from riding him in the stretch ( and probably winning ). Arroyo kept looking down to his left, and even said something to Santos as he went by, but the head-on was inconclusive though it seems possible he either lost or broke his left iron.

Thats very interesting. I noticed the same thing but I think I refrained from posting about it. I actually liked Interior Designer in that spot, but didnt make a wager for some reason. While watching the race, I cursed myself for not betting it, because Interior Designer looked home free.

A very large bunch of 4yr olds that will be running in stakes races that there owners and or trainers think they are so special that hey dont even consider trying to progress through the conditions. Go back and look at the colts on the derby trail last year . So many dropped of the list after some early problems , without proving there inability. As we see some that fit in this catagory are even bypassing there 4yr old year and going to the shed to make there money. Such a crazy assumption. Sometimes it looks as if all they need is "POTENTIAL" . Keeping them racing is to much of a gamble. Hard for a plaino horse player to understand. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ rules.