Derby Trail Forums - The Rail at Aqueduct

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Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not getting into the " juice " discussion...because I can't.

I found the feature race on Saturday to be highly questionable. There was a Barclay Tagg horse, Stormy Kiss maybe, who on paper was clear speed and pretty much a cinch. The second choice was trained by Gary Contessa, Magnolia Jackson, a horse of minor ability who while she could win, and deserved to be second choice, was no major threat to the favorite on paper. Now the betting opens, and Magnolia Jackson opens 1/9, and the obvious favorite is somewhere around 2:1. While Magnolia drifts to 2:5 a few minutes before post she still remarkably is ultimately favored while both horses are even money. The race didn't even need to be run.

Tagg's horse got the lead, but it was apparent to anyone watching that Magnolia Jackson, who was stalking, was going to eat her up at will. And she did, with the longest shot on the board sucking up for second. Now, I don't think anything went on with Magnolia Jackson, and her abhorant 75 Beyer fig backs that up, but how the hell did EVERYONE know that the Tagg horse was finished?

I cannot make my decisions based on the board but if I am finding situations like the one described above I simply cannot bet.

Not trying to disparage anything you have said but wouldn't you consider Magnolia Jackson (like 4 of 6 on the inner) an Inner Track Specialist like Stellianos? Wasn't it a 4 or 5 horse field with really only 2 possible winners unless they raced themselves into oblivion I thought the odds kind of made sense. How many times have you seen it where the fav and longest shot on the board hook up in the very short fields? somehow the pace of the race isn't very honest in those situations, either too fast or too slow.

I am hear at 1:30 am preparing for the Beulah Contest and watching AQU replays and of the first 6 races only 1 race was wire to wire with the inside runner winning.

Ok Now I see Remorse going w2w with CC Lopez up, what else does that guy do anyway? Barcola wins by 18 with Contesa. Eric Donavan on the replay show said " Baracola was a tremendous overlay, he didn't know how she wasn't 6/5 ot lower"? Last race of professional maidens was won by the 5 3 wide on the turn clearing in upper stretch in a stagger fest of low level Mdn Claimers. The type you never used to see in NYRA. ( Philly Park or Laurel)

Not sure I would claim yesterday as an inside BIAS day at AQU. Just a bad card, with bad horses.

NC Tony

I just got done watching TVG from today(I dvr it while I am at work).
that was ridiculous.

the closest I ever get to a racetrack is the finish line boxes at Lone Star.
so can someone tell me exactly how a track gets in this condition, and more importantly, why it is so difficult for the track maintenence crew to correct the overwhelming bias.
Im sorry if this is a stupid question, but I am very ignorant when it comes to these matters.
Ive never worked around dirt before.
I understand how track biases work and can identify them, but Im just wondering how they are physically formed.

Repent

Is it really a Bias or is it Bad Handicapping?

Many times it is my opinion that a Bias is a convienient excuse for bad hadicapping that day.

Many times we just can't be honest with ourselves. And if a bias does exist and you recognize it's presence but still bet expecting a "non Biased result", well.....

I do not think there are as many true Bias situations as we seem to think there is.

NC Tony

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoCarolinaTony

it may be overused as an excuse,
but real biases do exist.
hell, if not, they would not have torn KEE apart and put in that crap that created another reversed bias.

Repent