tweeted just a few minutes ago....

Mike Welsch ‏@DRFWelsch 3m3 minutes ago
Violette on Upstart. "He's got a temperature and we'll see where that leads us. If he's really sick then we're in trouble.

Mike Welsch ‏@DRFWelsch 3m3 minutes ago
"We can overcome missing the breeze today. He's really fit. If he has to stay in the stall for a week then that's a different story"

Ugh! I hope he recovers quickly.

I was thinking today that I don't recall a year of Derby Preps like this where the "chalk" won so much. In other years, you have horses on one circuit or another who are "chalk" and win, but on others you get some "new players". Nothing that won most of these Derby Preps paid much, if any. They were all bet, they were expected and they delivered. That's a good thing in a good way in that these are good horses who we expect good performances from and they deliver. A mark of a good horse. Time will tell, but for now it looks like a good crop.

The intriguing question is "How fast can they run ?" We've seen Dortmund win, American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, International Star, Mubtaahij (if he runs), Frosted and others. They won, but is there more if needed ? Was the prep their top or is their more, and how much more ?

We can look at their numbers, Beyer, Thorograph or whatever, but you have to wonder what else is there. We know what was there, but is that it ? Is there more or was that it ?

I just know some, or all of them maybe have something else. We just have to find or guess who. It's kind of a great situation this year. We have some good horses who are very consistent, as opposed to other years. It may be hard betting, but that's OK too.

I'm going to look at some prep film over and I'm not necessarily going to look for a "trip" but I'm going to look at the way the horse is running, his stride, his demeanor, determination and energy and look to see if this horse is showing me he may have something more. Another gear, another step, another level.

I'm going to be looking at those horses like Dortmund and American Pharoah and say "How really good are you ?"

Firing Line no longer the track record holder at SUN. NM-bred Proceed breaks it by .02 in the Sunland Park Handicap.

In fairness, that horse is not your typical Nm bred type of horse.

As of now my big three are Dortmund, American Pharoah and Upstart. Ill probably cover Frosted in a back up kind of way.

Everyone knows you are keying carpe diem with the Bafferts.

At this point Carpe Diem is slow.

Kentucky Oaks

1. Condo Commando (Rodriguez)
2. I’m a Chatterbox (Jones)
3. Stellar Wind (Sadler)
4. Birdatthewire (Romans)
5. Lovely Maria (Jones)
6. Include Betty (Proctor)
7. Oceanwave (Catalano)
8. Angela Renee (Pletcher)
9. Sarah Sis (Mason)
-- Maybellene -- Possible (Baffert)
10. Eskenformoney (Pletcher)
11. Puca (Mott)
12. Shook Up (Asmussen)
-- Luminance -- Possible (Baffert)
13. Forever Unbridled (Stewart)
14. Achiever’s Legacy (Hollendorfer)
-------------------------------------
15. Money'soncharlotte (Breen)
16. Danessa Deluxe (Navarro)
17. Callback (Baffert)
18. Wonder Gal (Gyarmati)

My key horse in Derby Day verticals and horizontals will be One Lucky Dane.

I keep hearing how deep this field is but honestly I dont see it. Feels like maybe 3-4 horses can win this thing.

Like him too. Hope he gets a better trip than his sire. It was over at the break for him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bd0rf8RSeo

Cheers,

O

Verticals, yes. Horizontals, no. IMO, Baffert could put 3 in the superfecta.

It would be nice to get 1 of either Keen Ice or Frammento to pump up the exotics. Just hopefully not both:D

Steve- You have Luminance as possible. Can you elaborate? Assume she goes in eight belles if not Oaks? Thanks.

War Story
 

May have a different trainer for the KY Derby? days coming?

Baffert, who had been on nearly every Monday for weeks, had hinted that he's not sold on either as Oaks runners. He reiterated again today that he'll monitor them leading up towards the race and make decisions based on how they're doing.

If you are referring to the fight in Indiana, no. Amoss will continue to battle Gorajec and the Commission.

At what point will we start to get some probables for the other Oaks/Derby stakes? Just wondering as I'm starting to research..

Thanks Steve for the PP's.