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The point I was trying to make with the Falcons-Saints game is that partly due to the new turf surface the hometeam had a big advantage. And that's pretty much what happened on KY cup day. Every stakes race was won by a local trainer and every jockey outside of Mike Smith who won a stakes race rides at Turfway. Will this home field advantage last? Of course not. Through time the top trainers and horses will dominate on this surface just like they do on turf and dirt. |
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Its exactly why I won't name names of the trainers who have told me the same. Noone wants to be labeled as an opponent of whats supposedly so humane. As if running races on deeper cushioned deeper surfaced dirt tracks isn't humane. |
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Any truth to that? |
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If you stand at the rail and watch the horses come back you can see horses that obviously do not like to breathe the poly. They snort excessively -- almost like they inhaled an allergen or irritant. Sure, you see that to a limited extent on the dirt also. It smells hugely bad. I don't know if that makes certain horses uncomfortable. I'll be at Keeneland tomorrow. It will be interesting to check that out. If I can stay away from the hottie co-eds and the beer stand :) . |
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I'll be there Wednesday. Can't wait. |
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I respect your opinion, but my feeling and actual experience is that I have won more than my share of maiden races on the turf because others are too lazy to do the work that is required to learn more about turf sires. All the better for me that people continue that trend, as it will continue to insure better prices for me in the end. |
Personally I think that if you avoid wagering on Polytrack you are making a big mistake. One reason is that there are a lot of unknowns about the surface. Which means that the other players have no advantage on you. If you watch the races closely you may be able to identify trends before the betting public and sharp players do. For instance there was a day at Turfway last week where the track was favoring speed very strongly. The track was also playing much faster in spirnts versus routes the same day. That is powerful info because very few people are aware of the trend. Also traditional sheet numbers are not as accurate on polytrack because there are days where the outside paths are much superior to the rail, therefore giving better numbers to the winners than they should get based upon the old methodology.
The richest people in this world capitalize on chaos and being ahead of the curve. That opportunity clearly presents itself here. Maybe you should temper your bets where you are wagering a smaller % than you usually would, but to put your head in the sand and say that you wont wager on it, and maybe miss some tremendous opportunities, seems a little narrowminded. BTW- Regarding With a City, the connections of that horse have produced some stunning upsets in the past in big races with horses that never had shown that kind of form and never did again. Also the field was basically an allowance race from which very little has ever emerged out of. |
I already have picked against Circular Quay in this race. I think he has ability but I think the horses in this race have developed into very good 2 year olds. I think the talent in this field and the two turns will get Quay beat. The surface might play a little into the equation because it is indeed a different surface. I don't think the change in surface will be the culminating factor as to why Quay got beat.
Now, the question to you is this....will you admit that any horse can run over PolyTrack as long as Quay wins. Will you finally shut-up about the surface. heck if Quay can win on dirt and PolyTrack then surface should't matter. So if you want to call out the Poly supporters pre-race then you should be called out as well. |
I'm a huge fan of CQ, but I wouldn't dare touch him this weekend. I have no idea how he'll take to the Polytrack. I'm hoping he stays wide and runs evenly to finish 3rd or 4th. That way maybe his odds are a little better when he runs back on the real stuff in the BC Juvy!
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I just wish that there was more of a happy medium. There is no doubt that often very good or great dirt horses don't take to it at all and as the surface spreads to the tracks through the country, this will completely change the sport as well bred horses will struggle to find a surface to suceed on. It is not fair for horses like CQ and other great dirt horses not to have a chance on this foreign surface. HOwever, it does do wonders for the soundness of horses. Far fewer breakdowns and a horse can run more often with less strain. So it's hard to decide which is more important , many believe that the safety of horses is but to what extent - that it ruins the game or completely changes it? I'm not complaining right now though as I've had the biggest scores of my life by far betting against these good dirt horses that top trainers ship in for stakes, and sticking with the horses who train or have run on it already (With a City by far the biggest score of my life). Last week had tons of success in the stakes races with Ball Four and UD Ghetto.
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I don't see how PolyTrack is going to change the game at all or the breeding. Horses will adapt and so will breeding. The only thing that will change is the names of the horses. People will say--well we will never get to see how good a horse could be because he never ran on dirt. Well the same could be said by saying--well we never know how good a horse could be because he couldnt run on Poly. Not sure if Poly is here to stay or not, but it won't ruin the the sport at all.
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Man.. this topic is like spoiled milk.. you take a sniff, you know it's bad, but you still have to take a drink.
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Polytrack is going to kill us all at some point.
I have NO idea why any trainer with any intention of running his horse in a Breeders Cup race would prep him on a track made of rubber and glue. Repent |
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