The only truth to that is that I became aware of the horse because of his sire.

Had I happened to have seen his debut otherwise, I'd have been impressed with the late flying move he made when he finally got his act together.

Again, he seems like a horse to me that will improve a lot as both the distances get longer and he gets more seasoning.

Combine that with what looks to be yet another lackluster group of classic horses, and, well, I think the horse is in the upper echelon of soon to be 3yos that have a real shot of winning the Derby.

I have never been a fan of Dynaformer, in the least, but I was utterly convinced Barbaro was going to win the Derby, even before his so called lackluster dirt debut in the Holy Bull. More so afterwards, come to think of it.

The only offspring of IC I ever liked for the Derby was Uncle Mo, but I also thought it was unlikely he'd run in it.

I thought Indian Blessing was overrated, and this was after watching her win twice. This from a person who said she was going to win the BCJF race before she made her first start.

So yeah, I'm a bit of a lunatic when it comes to IC, but I remain objective and honest when I evaluate any of his runners.

Depends on what we're calling a lights out performance, I guess.

15 of the 23 horses broke their maiden by 2 lengths or more. 12 of the 21 I have BSF for earned a figure of 84 or higher.

Should have cracked my Champions book instead of relying upon memory.

If very recent history is any indication -- you might want to flirt around with something very lightly raced that won either a turf or synthetic route in fast time.

Big Brown won his debut by a pole on turf at Saratoga -- got the fastest Saratoga 2yo Turf Beyer of the decade. Barbaro ran a triple digit Beyer in a turf route as a 2yo in his 2nd start. He was the fastest 2yo turf horse since Incurable Optimist.

Even Animal Kingdom won his maiden race 2nd time out by a good margin running an 84 Beyer going 9 furlongs at Keeneland in October. Wise Dan's Presque Isle Mile was UNQUESTIONABLY the best performance by any horse at PID this year. He just crushed the Graded Stakes Fayette at 9fs by a wide margin and got only a 97 Beyer in victory. You're talking about an older male Graded Stakes winner dominant in wide margin victory -- only 13 points faster than a 2nd time starter 2yo attempting 9fs.

Any lightly raced 2yo who can run in the 100 range routing on the turf - or 85 range routing on synthetic - is worth a look. The less classier his beaten competion the better. In theory, surface should matter... but distance has suddenly become of MAJOR importance because of how lightly raced and trained these horses are now compared to even six years ago.

Most of the huge odds horses are obviously not value.

A weird thing I'm a little annoyed about on Breeders Cup Day was how I bet the Juvenile Fillies when I loaded up on My Miss Aruellia as a rare horse who offered extreme value while still at short odds.

I had My Miss Aruellia a 72% chance to win on my own value line. Anything over even money was obviously great value on her.

MMA was faster than Union Rags in a similarly paced race on the same card and at the same distance. MMA was six full lengths faster on figures than anyone else in the field. MMA projected for a perfect trip when I did my pace analysis. Tom Amoss raved about MMA's workout and all indications were she was coming into the race great. No one else in the race had any upside I could see.




I bet $500 to win on her... something I rarely do

I was so proud of my chalky little plunge I took a picture of the win bet with my cell phone while I was at the voucher machine to cash them.

In hindsight -- it proved a stupid bet. I bet about $700 on the race... $500 on the win ticket, $100 into the P3, and about a $100 into the exotics. The win ticket only profited just over a thousand. I did way better with the exotics.

Had MMA been even money or 6/5 instead of 2/1 ... I wouldn't have bet her to win at all -- and probably spent $300 into the P3 and $300 or so into the exotics.

Perfect Shirl (another horse I win bet) and Royal Delta (standout single) win the next two races -- and my two keys behind MMA were Grace Hall and Weemissfrankie -- and they finish 2nd and 3rd. As it turned out - the win bet was great value -- but the exotics proved INSANELY great value.

^^^^^^^"Most outlandish shoehorning of a red board" Nominee ^^^^^^^

It's not a redboard if you post about it before the race.

What's outlandish about it? If My Miss Aruillia is even money instead of 2/1 the race works out way better for me.

He did tell me 2 weeks before that she was his lock of the weekend.

Betsy says the same thing.

Is taking a picture of winning tickets the new cool thing to do?

I would guess it's cooler than all the pics I have of recent losing tix?

That's what I did. I have two editions of that book. I see there's a new third edition of the book coming out. It's BS. The DRF should send you either supplements if you own older copies or should publish less expensive addenda to the original.

The funny part is that the tagline in the advertisement for the new one is "From Ack Ack to Zenyatta". Turn that phrase around and you have most people's reaction to getting force-fed the latest "happenings" with the great mare.

I have the first edition, skipped the second. I'll probably go for the third, which is out now, apparently. Wonder how long it will be before it shows up on Amazon.

We could flood this place with all of our recent losers.

You have to cash the tickets to get the money so if you dont take a picture what would you frame?

Indian Blessing was a dam fast filly. How was she overrated?

Kodak would be a $300 dollar stock......................

She wasn't, even if her 4YO campaign was basically wrecked by a trip to Dubai. She was very good.

IC also said that he thought Uncle Mo's King's Bishop was overrated while his Timely Writer was extraordinary.

Just think if you had listened to me on Musical Romance.

Nice to see you have trimmed your nails, somewhat.

I think I gave you Musical Romance, no?