I guess I can't argue there...This year's BC Juvy filly winner might be like an Action This Day was a few years back...it has that feel to it right now with just 8 weeks till the race....Baffert will probably be even money and a bad fave at that price....

Who are you looking at right now as far as 2yo colts that are quality and could go on in the BC Juvenile?...It is well documented who I have hung myself out on here.....:D

I have no idea and to be honest I don't pay an enormous amount of attention to the BC. I am primarily a day to day player and I try and focus on what is in front of me. Marrying myself to horses at this point won't do me any financial good.

That Assmussen/Blasi maiden breaker from closing weekend looked pretty damn good though. I would say he was the most impressive 2YO winner of the meet. He won pretty easily. I'm sorry City Snitch is out, as he looked good as well, though it's hard to guess how far he will go. I certainly have no problem looking past the stakes winners we saw at Saratoga, as while perhaps Circular Quay is a little better than I thought, I am not going to get excited about a horse who won a five horse race with effectively a four horse duel in front of him. The one interesting thing about him is that he seems to be a rare closer from that barn. I am curious to see if he maintains his running style effectively as they go longer. Regardless, I look forward to betting against him at a short price in the right spot.

Yeah, she's got a runner's family, but her half sister, Chic and Hide, was a bona-fide sprinter and she was by the stamina-influenced Seeking the Gold - yet she could not go two-turns.....makes you wonder if thsi A.P. Indy filly will go on - although you would think she would......I ahevn't seen her or paid attention to her body type to understand what she is built for....Does she possess a routers body like most A.P. Indys?...long-bodied, etc....

The other problem with her is that she needs to break that maiden QUICK to have a serious pitch to point for the BC Juvy Fillies....might be a better 3yo if she is like most A.P. Indys....

Is Nick going to run her at Belmont or is he pointing for Keeneland with her? I would imagine he'll keep her in NY and try to win quickly with her there so that he can try to make Nov. 4th if he thinks she's that good....

She could still break her maiden in a week or so and make the Frizette. Follow the Sun King route. As for knowing Nick's plans....I make it a point to let people tell me things. I don't particularly like to ask. If they want my opinion they can ask but I don't get up at 4 in the morning, or work 365 days a year, for over 12 hours a day, so I don't ask. And if I did....I wouldn't repeat it here anyway.

I take it you're not a Scat Daddy fan then :D ......................Asmussen's colt is a runner, but Steve has always thought that Napa Cat was his best 2YO - but that colt is on the shelf right now......

Scat Daddy is talented. My problem is that over the past horses from that barn have not gone on so I am skeptical about any of them. Clearly Circular Quay and Scat Daddy are talented but I will take a wait and see approach. Too many of Pletcher's horses disappear as quickly as they appear.

Don't get me wrong, the guy is a terrific trainer, who runs a superior operation, but with the " win-early " focus unfortunately we have seen too much burnout. That is somewhat why Circular Quay intrigues me, as his running style doesn't fit their normal profile, but so far none of the early flashes from that barn ( at least as far as colts are concerned because Ashado was around forever ) have really panned out. But, they get too many well bred and talented horses to not eventually have some major TC contendors.

And I don't mean ridiculously overhyped bums like Bandini.

this is the type of thread content i doubt if you could ever find anywhere else. with all the new people coming over right now it surely sets a good example of what to expect. very interesting analysis.

good job all, especially BTW, Cunningham, and GPK.

Is he talking about Bandini or Bernardini? I assume he is talking about Bandini. Bandini actually had a lot of potential but he had some physical problems and never lived up to his full potential. Even in the big 3 year old races in Florida last year, I don't think you were seeing Bandini's best races. I think they were already having problems with his ankle. They managed to get a one more good race out of him in the Bluegrass but he was done after that. One of my trainers saw him being lead over to the paddock for the Ky Derby and he told me that one of his ankles was huge. The connections tried to act like he hurt his ankle in the Derby but he had the bad ankle before the Derby.

By the way, Bandini is already retired so you don't have to worry about him getting cast in his stall and retiring.

:D Can I use this as my new tagline?! I totally agree.

What was your opinion on Kauai Calls, who came out of Blasi's stable?

I like Imperial Reign a lot too.. Very impressed with that one so far.

I'm on the fence. I thought it was interesting how she was ridden in her debut in that she was pushed along very hard the whole way and really didn't seem to have any speed. I was surprised she showed so much speed when she won the depleted allowance in her next start though perhaps she was forced due to the inside post. Still, she outran a pretty fast Mott horse and the Jerkens runner ( prior to that one breaking down ). However, I will be curious to see if she is rated as they stretch out in probably her next start.

In other words....I don't know what to make of her. She's certainly done nothing wrong and does seem to have a lot of maturing to do. She probably has as much potential as just about anyone right now.

panty raid is going to a nice filly after the ankle problem sorts out..

Thanks! Hopefully some more interesting horses spring out of this two year old crop, not overly impressed so far.

Horses that impress us in August usually don't pan out. More than often they are either precocious or rushed too early. Of course, it seems trainers wait so long to start firsters, with so much emphasis on the BC, that one little setback seems to end their year.

On the other hand, has anyone discussed Tagg's firster, Nobiz like Shobiz, who won his debut ( albeit with a perfect trip ) at a mile on Saturday at Belmont and earned a Beyer number of 94? I saw he's going straight to the Champagne ( and then, weather permitting, if everything goes right, I expect Tagg to point him to the Cheltingham meet ).

I think that is what impresses me most about Henny Hughes, excellent 2 year old, lasted through the BC Juvie and being flown all around the world (lord only knows why he was, winters in Florida are lovely) and is still impressing.

Was super surprised by Nobiz...it made me forget about having Vanquisher in my picks.

Isnt "Nobiz like Shobiz" a recyled name from a horse who ran appx 7-8 years ago?

He meant Bandini because he was talking about Pletcher's horses relavent to the Tripel Crown....

They obviously like her and she is an intriguing filly for stretching out....her dam was a graded stakes winner going two-turns and ran in the Kentucky Oaks a few years ago, so you believe she'd at least get a mile....Also, her second dam is by Alleged, which reaffirms that thought....FuPeg is usually sprinter/miler but he has been versatile to the mare's offerings and this filly should get two-turns...she alos has the look and style that would givce you that impression.....not sure HOW far she'll go around two turns, but she should not balk at the BC Juvy Fillies distance of 1 1/16 miles if they get her there....Asmussen has never given $2 million for a horse at auction IN HIS LIFE with all the horses he's bought and trained - so it should be clear that he thought he was replacing Summerly in the regard of attempting to find another Oaks contender...

Boy, the FuPeg/Meadowlake mare cross is pretty darn solid, as it also produced top 2YO Pegasus Wind from the Lukas barn....

With that being said, a 2YO filly has grabeb this division rather decisively early on and gone on to dominate in the BC Juvenile Fillies - asserting her superiority over the other juvenile fillies in her crop - the last few years with Storm Flag Flying, Halfbridled, Sweet Catomine and Folklore all being rather dominant....

There will be a change in that pattern this year - or at least it has that feeling, as Baffert's filly is the #1 seed at the moment but looks far from dominant.....

I can't speak of the California horses you mentioned, but at this point in the year Storm Flag Flying was a maiden breaker and Folklore was coming off a mediocre second to Adieu in the Spinaway.

It's early.