Bellamy Road's performance was better than Esky's and he lost. I'm very concerned about the 1:13 and 3 yesterday. The Derby pace will be 1:11 and 3 at the slowest. Either set by Rule, Conveyance, Sydney or American Lion. If Esky uses any of his speed to stay within 5 lenghts he won't have the the finishing touch he has had the last 2 races. Could still win very easily. But if they opt to lay 10 lengths back of that pace. I'm not so sure. Plus we still have post positions.

I think Zayat will be selling a piece of him before the derby.

So if he stays close to the pace, he'll be in trouble, and if he lays off the pace, he'll be in trouble. Why even enter? And unlike Eskendereya, Bellamy Road showed little to no ability to rate in his prior races, plus he got hurt in the Derby. Different scenarios.

This is my question as well. It's easy to say "they all get beat" and they do, but I'm still waiting for someone to tell me which horse is close to him.

Still got the Pletcher Jinx to overcome also.

Just my opinion, but Id take the 1-2-3 from the Santa Anita Derby as a group at approximately the same odds as Esky is now (2-1).

There is one winner, and nineteen losers every year. Nobody should have an expectation of victory in the race. Furthermore, do you really think Pletcher would have wanted to start Keyed Entry, if it were up to him? Doubtful. And the same could be said for plenty of his other starters.

I don't consider a trainer "jinxed" when hopeless speed horses, or synthetic specialists (Monba, Advice), fail to win the race. It's a hard race to win! Even Pletcher said yesterday he's never had a horse who he felt could truly prosper at 10f.

A trainer who can beat Curlin in the Belmont with a filly, is a trainer who will eventually get the Derby.

What more did you want him to do yesterday? The horse rated perfectly, exploded when asked and destroyed his competition yesterday. Regardless of price, he proved that as of right now he is the most likely winner of the Derby. Maybe he hasn't had to run hard because of his tactical speed and he is just that much better than what he has faced. Right now, I don't see anything that appears to be better than him. Of course, there are still four weeks until the Derby and a lot can change between now and then, but it is hard to argue that there is a better 3 year old out there than him at the moment.

There isn't. No one has come close to the two performances he's posted. Now, the best horse doesn't always win the Derby (see Point Given in a long list), but no other 3-year-old has shown what Eskendereya has shown in his FOY win and Wood score.

You can only run in the race you are in--and all of the other horses in the Wood had the same pace scenario. What did they do with it?

If people are saying the Derby could be a race that falls apart, well no sh*t. That seems to happen every third year or so (like last year). If that is your betting strategy, I can't knock it, because those races pay great. Unfortunately you still have the task of determining who will pick the pieces under that scenario. Given the prices on horses like Giacomo and MTB, obviously that is a pretty tough game to beat.

FWIW, if Esky makes the gate in one piece, I DO intend to bet some "fall apart" tickets since I already have him very well covered by my future book ticket. I don't need to put another penny on him, which will be a luxury.

The derby fell apart last year?

Compared to what? Some other Derbies have been trashed much worse--you certainly had a couple of horses last year that made it around the track the evenly. But the winner was last of 19 after 3/4 of a mile. That kind of running style could not have possibly won the SA Derby or the Wood yesterday. So compared to those (the races we've been talking about), sure.

I didnt know that you were comparing it to two paceless preps. I thought you were comparing it to other derbies.

My definition of a race "falling apart" is when a majority of the horses that finish in the money were nowhere near the lead for most of the race and the horses that set the early fraction finish close to last. Last year, besides mine that bird, Pioneer of the nile was within a length of the lead at each point of call. Musket man and papa clem were all within a few lengths of the lead for much of the race. Even the two horses that set fractions finished no worse than 8th. The only other horse that closed besides mine that bird was Chocolate candy who finished a non threatening fifth.

See the 2005 vintage for a derby that really fell apart.

I believe I referenced that Derby in my post.

You did. But comparing 2009 to 2005 is fallacious in regards to pace meltdowns. Mine that bird wins that race last year if they would have run 52 for the opening quarter. It didnt fall apart, it was just a garbage race altogether.

If Eskendereya doesnt run, it might even be worse this year. I know im the 1 millionth person to say it but this crop is dreadful.

It's better than '08 for certain, and probably better than last year. It ain't vintage but it isn't the worst, either.