Mine That Bird was nowhere near the level of a claiming horse, you can't use the comparison. He ran in a 900k race filled with allowance/small stakes type horses. Possibly G3 level horses if you look at Kelly Leak.

IMO, this is all you need to see.... Happens a lot, just not in the Derby.

The problem is that with the really good cheaters is that it is very hard to find the proof, that is why they are successful. They do get caught every once in a while since all cheaters makes mistakes here and there.

What you seem to be missing is that people see the Dutrow's and the Mullins as cheaters for two reasons, they do get caught often enough and horses make such unexplainable improvements when they come under their care.

Although, calling someone a cheater just because they move a horse up here and there can be unfair as well as horses can have problems, mental or physical, or bad habits that can be fixed which a prior trainer may not have been able to figure out which can explain improvement as well.

Booner, I am no expert on Beyer figures, but have a fair understanding and others, such as Drugs may be better suited to answer such questions than me.

Certainly it is logical to conclude that MTB likes the slop and some of the improvement could be attributed to that and that you should move him up when he gets a muddy surface again. It is just one tool amongst many handicapping tools you can use although you would like to see a bigger sample than one race before making the conclusion, but you can certainly find some longshots based on seeing good races under certain conditions.

A good example would be Accredit from earlier on the Churchill card on Saturday, I am doing this from memory, but I gave Accredit a chance to win that race at a decent price based upon the fact that he was 4 for 4 on off tracks and had run some good speed figures if I remember correctly. However, just because a horse has not run well in the off going once or twice does not mean they don't like it, the horse may have had traffic problems, bad trips, etc.

I didnt say he was, I answered a post that said there was some sort of angle from training and racing at Sunland in high altitudes and coming to CD and making a huge jump and improvement. I was just saying that some fool out there might think his 15 claimer is a stake horse now at Churchill.

-4 TG figure for RA

Thats huge for a ground saving trip that only got a 107 beyer.
With her type of trip seems like a 113-116 beyer would be more in line with the neg# 4

Friday had to be a nightmare for figuremakers with the track condition changing like seven times, but I agree that I thought her Beyer would be higher.

95% of statistics are made up.








:D

I'm not even remotely close to being an expert when it comes to making figures, but when you look at her time and compare it to the time in the Distaff, why would you think her figure would be higher than it is?