Bobby Fischer |
03-26-2009 09:06 PM |
you guys remember better than I do , i had to look him up again. I remember Einstein being in that race but forgot it was Mending Fences on the spill. That race (Dixie on preakness day) was wild. Can't remember If that breakdown really hurt cosmonaut as much as it was dramatic looking, not sure if it helped him by wiping others out without seeing the head on again. Not sure if the following race really fit my point with all that going on.
the citation, the hollywood turf cup , the Manhattan (following the spill), the bernard baruch, even the river city all underlays altthough the river city was totally different as he was underlayed against a weak field he still should have been moderately favored in.
The point had nothing really to do with Cosmonaut or Giant Oak or Pay in Kind as individuals. I used Cosmonaut and Giant Oak as symbols to represent the type of horse who gets bad trips because he is in over his head and is apt to find trouble and will either find trouble once again or really isn't all that good with a good trip. More importantly these types get into obvious trouble that puts them on everyone's watch list "he had to go wide" etc... the public bets them enough that there is no value.
Pay in Kind is a symbol of the kind of horse that actually could capitalize on a better trip and isn't necessarily as prone to a bad one. (the real world PIK won back, but he was unbettable at even money).
I haven't been playing Aqueduct, but I was watching the youtube Trips & Traps and he was a featured trip horse. That's actually a good show. Everybody thinks they are the best handicapper, but it is nice to hear someone's opinion about a trip. It's hard to have that conversation with a lot of people. Most people I talk to about horses offline DON'T WANT to hear about the higher level aspects of the game. They aren't in it to make a little extra money, and they aren't in it for the mental challenge. They're in it for a gambling addiction and an adrenalin rush.
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