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-   -   Bridge jumper on Zenyatta (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23778)

SentToStud 07-06-2008 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
What is the percentage of odds on favorites that finish in the money?

What is that percentage in stakes races?

What is the percentage in races where horses are facing similar company to the last?

What is the percentage for horses racing in similar conditions (ie track, distance, company) as last?

I bet when you break all of it down, without even taking into account what type of uber talent Zenyatta has or how bad those particular horses were, that the percentage is extremely high.
Can anyone think of a horse that recently went off 1-20 to win who ran out of the money?

All the "good" situations you mention are more than negated by this.

Plus, I think any good horse running these days has a 10% chance of getting injured in any race. Maybe the steed would still stagger in 3rd for you.

The Indomitable DrugS 07-06-2008 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
I bet when you break all of it down, without even taking into account what type of uber talent Zenyatta has or how bad those particular horses were, that the percentage is extremely high.
Yeah - she barely beat a troubled Tough Tiz's Sis.

Silver Swallow, who blows, was beaten less than 2 lengths.

dalakhani 07-06-2008 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigsmc
Place pool:

1 - $5,931
2 - $149,445 - Proud Spell
3 - $7,169
4 - $13,217
Ummmm....i said SHOW betting and you have a place pool here.

dalakhani 07-06-2008 01:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SentToStud
Can anyone think of a horse that recently went off 1-20 to win who ran out of the money?

All the "good" situations you mention are more than negated by this.

Plus, I think any good horse running these days has a 10% chance of getting injured in any race. Maybe the steed would still stagger in 3rd for you.
I cant think of a 1-20 that ran out of the money given the criteria i layed out. If you can name it.


As for 10% getting hurt, that is just not accurate.

ateamstupid 07-06-2008 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
Ummmm....i said SHOW betting and you have a place pool here.
Wow.

Bigsmc 07-06-2008 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
Ummmm....i said SHOW betting and you have a place pool here.
I know what you said and I know what I posted.

dalakhani 07-06-2008 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Yeah - she barely beat a troubled Tough Tiz's Sis.

Silver Swallow, who blows, was beaten less than 2 lengths.
Yep you are right. She ran poorly and the other two ran lights out with Silver Swallow having it all her way and running the race of her life.

So what is the worst she could have finished without injury? Third and she actually won.

SentToStud 07-06-2008 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
I cant think of a 1-20 that ran out of the money given the criteria i layed out. If you can name it.


As for 10% getting hurt, that is just not accurate.
Think harder.

dalakhani 07-06-2008 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Wow.
I am glad you are amazed.

dalakhani 07-06-2008 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SentToStud
Think harder.
you made the claim, you say the name. (damn if that didnt rhyme..not intended!)

I dont know the horse that you are referring to.

The Indomitable DrugS 07-06-2008 01:12 PM
War Pass in the Tampa Derby?

I'm sure this putz will redboard a case as to why he was likely to not hit the board.

Bigsmc 07-06-2008 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SentToStud
Think harder.
You may have to start giving out hints.

Bigsmc 07-06-2008 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
War Pass in the Tampa Derby?

I'm sure this putz will redboard a case as to why he was likely to not hit the board.
Ding ding ding.

Give the man a case of tube socks.

dalakhani 07-06-2008 01:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
War Pass in the Tampa Derby?

I'm sure this putz will redboard a case as to why he was likely to not hit the board.
Hey, you dont need to call me names. If you want to dismiss, thats fine but no need to insult me. I havent insulted you.

hi_im_god 07-06-2008 01:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalakhani
Yeah, and that is such a great bet? What are the statistics behind that bet? How often does that win? What percentage would you have to hit in order for that to be profitable for YOU? And just because your bet is a good one (and im not saying its not) what makes the bridge jumper's bet so stupid?
let's see...

if i'm correct and the horse should be 3-1, he's going to win 25% of the time and i'm going to collect $22.00 for every $2.00 bet when it hits.

so, for every $8.00 invested I make a $14.00 profit.

That's a 175% roi.

if you could accurately predict a horse would be itm 99/100 times and it returned $2.10 for every $2.00 bet, you'd win $0.10 99 times ($9.90) and lose $2.00 once for a total profit of $7.90 on $200.00 bet. that's a roi of 3.95%.

PeteMugg 07-06-2008 01:17 PM
All this logic aside, I'm guessing this guy could afford to lose the 200k. That's more than I can say about half the folks that dropped $100 at my OTB yesterday.

But let's say you're stupid rich and love horseracing, how would you bet the races that it would mean something to you? Big P6 tickets? Or would you become an owner and drop half a million on a well bred yearling?

dalakhani 07-06-2008 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
War Pass in the Tampa Derby?

I'm sure this putz will redboard a case as to why he was likely to not hit the board.
Besides, unless i missed something, War Pass had never raced at Tampa Downs...putz.

The Indomitable DrugS 07-06-2008 01:23 PM
Go play in traffic you tard.

dalakhani 07-06-2008 01:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hi_im_god
let's see...

if i'm correct and the horse should be 3-1, he's going to win 25% of the time and i'm going to collect $22.00 for every $2.00 bet when it hits.

so, for every $8.00 invested I make a $14.00 profit.

That's a 175% roi.

if you could accurately predict a horse would be itm 99/100 times and it returned $2.10 for every $2.00 bet, you'd win $0.10 99 times ($9.90) and lose $2.00 once for a total profit of $7.90 on $200.00 bet. that's a roi of 3.95%.
Fallacy. The notion that the horse "should" be 3-1 is purely subjective. He is actually 10-1. Base your numbers and ROI on the 10-1 probability.

dalakhani 07-06-2008 01:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Go play in traffic you tard.
Unfortunate. I had higher opinion of you. I really did. Oh well.


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