This is incorrect or confused. The MDN win and Blue Grass both came at KEE... You may mean his ALW win at Churchill on closing day as a point of comparison of his dirt/poly form.

I would think a win at the Downs has merit in evaluating his Derby prospects...

And considering how individual flop races are being crossed out on several competitors' PP's during this Derby run-up, I don't know why Monba supporters couldn't cross out his difficult FOY and be happy with his credentials. He's not for me, but he's certainly as appealing as several others being supported on flimsier evidence.

I see how what I said could be misread.

I meant what I said, his BIG races, or good races, were his maiden win and his Blue Grass, I wasn't impressed with his ALW win at Churchill.

Watch his maiden win vs his Churchill win, side by side or back to back and tell me which one looked looked better. Which one the horse looked more comfortable in his stride. This horse wants no part of the dirt. I will concede that the argument is weak given he has won over Churchill, and his lone dirt start this year he was squeezed pretty bad, but I just see a different horse on the poly, compared to his lone dirt win.

i'll stick with the world record holder at 6F. he's liking the longer distance just fine, unlike others in this field. i like his style, sitting just behind the lead.

of course we'll have to wait until KD day to see how the track plays.

until derby week i'll chill.

Here's Monba's one dirt win - he had the kind of tactical position straight out of the perfect trip pic thread - and didn't exactly parlay the great stalking trip into a decisive win.

If you like sweet trip wins with ordinary figures this race might be for you:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wkvb3iZZpR0


If anyone likes this horse at all they simply have to believe he's vastly improved.

I think Bob Black Jack is a far better horse than more than half of this field - I also think he's one of the better bets in the race to finish last because of the pace, distance, and equipment change.

As soon as I saw his list, I forarded it to a friend with essentially the same comments you have. This is downright nutty.

i wouldn't like his top 2 with your money !

I think this thread further supports the notion this crop is crazy, wide-open and hard to figure.

Z Fortune could be cycling towards a new top. If the Oaklawn figure is a bit high (there was a dicussion about this), then he realistically could be cycling back to a new top.

The problem with these horses is when a horse does put in an good effort, people act as if they are allergic to it, because we have seen so many average races in the big events all spring long.

Can someone please explain the appeal of Visionaire to me? I'm not getting it.

Apparently his non-threatening fifth in the Blue Grass wowed many a prospective bettor.

I'm reluctant to completely toss him because he does seem to always fire and has at least some semblance of a closing kick, but I'm not in love with him either..

Love it Steve. Here is my take:

Kentucky Derby winner: COURT VISION
Kentucky Derby bust: MONBA

Court Vision
Positives:
1) Bred to be a monster. Gulch is one of my all time favorite sires (and runners). He is the sire of many, many good stakes runners, including 1995 Derby winner, Thunder Gulch (who, by the way, was out of a Storm Bird mare, like Court Vision and was out of the money in his final prep, the Blue Grass). The dam, Weekend Storm, is a full sister to the lengendary Summer Squall and a half sister to the equally legendary A. P. Indy. Now, those are some awesome bloodlines.

2) Bill Mott. This guy is way overdue.

3) Won a graded stakes at CD as a two year old. Might like the track.

4) Showed heart and guts winning both the IRQ and the REMSON as a two year old. Need to watch the replay to see what I mean.

5) Late kick. I know some will say he is slow but this horse seems to have a 5th gear that is on display very late in his races. Watch the replays and you will see what I mean.

Negatives:
1) Couldn't run down a blistering pace in the Wood and came home in a somewhat slow time.


MONBA
Postives: None

Negatives: Drug testing much tighter for the Derby so Mr. Pletcher will not likely be able to arrive on site with his bag of goodies. If unsure of this look at his Derby record. It's blantantly obvious. Year in and year out, the super trainers s*#t the bed in the Derby with can't miss runners. Hard to believe the Zito fiasco a few years ago.

Finally, for those sheep that can't look beyond the winners of the prep races (and believe me, that accounts for 85% of the betting public):

Derby winners that lost their final prep:
2007: Street Sense (2nd in Blue Grass)
2005: Giacomo (off the board in SA Derby)
2001: Monarchos (2nd in Wood)
1999: Charasmatic (off the board in SA Derby)
1998: Real Quiet (2nd in SA Derby)
1997: Silver Charm (2nd in SA Derby)
1995: Thunder Gulch (off the board in Blue Grass)
1994: Go for Gin (off the board in Florida Derby)
1993: Sea Hero (off the board in Blue Grass)
1992: Lil E Tee (2nd in Arkansas Derby)
1990: Unbridled (3rd in Blue Grass)

5 of last 18 (28%) Derby winners missed the board in their last prep before the Derby.

Who gives a crap? Blackberry Road is bred to be a monster too.

We're picking winners based on trainers? How's that worked for Pletcher fans?

So did Anak Nakal.

Eh, that's subjective, so I can't argue.

I shudder to think what his first four gears are if that's his fifth.

the overdue trainer angle? normally you only hear that one when you're at the track or OTB and its usually from a guy using a safety pin to help keep his trousers up.

Wow, I couldn't possibly disagree more. Court Vision hasn't improved a step since his IRQ 6 months ago. His Wood and FOY were plenty enough to prove he is a SLOW horse and does just enough to clunk up for a check. His 5th gear is the fact that he hasn't run a step all race and is passing the tiring ones. I am not a Monba tout but at least he appears to have improved as a 3yo and has the style and talent to work out a decent trip in the Derby.