Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Considering you post your money wagered and won in your signature, boy are you sensitive. Seems to me if you want to brag, you should be able to take it a bit. Honestly, you are an idiot for betting a even money horse to show. A big idiot. It's awful horse betting, awful. I have some bad news for you. You have not mastered this game and I think that's pretty obvious. You know next to nothing about it. Giving out your SAT score? Classic.

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

It should be a SPOT PLAY for you when a heavy favorite figures to pay well in the show pool. It should light up in front of you. It should jump off the page.

You can't just randomly wager on the tote board, but if you have done your HOMEWORK and you understand the POOLS then you are allowed to take advantage when Strong Heavy Favorites have good value in the show pool.

It has nothing to do with the WIN POOL. If there is a decent field size and the show money is distributed in the right way... bingo.

Don't even look at the win pool when checking to see if the show pool has value. It has nothing to do with it. You have to estimate how much value and how much late money will decrease that value. There was late money. And he still paid 2.40. He could have paid more if everyone with a pulse didn't wager late and cash on that idiotic wager.

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

your saying that its the connections betting late exposed you..

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is really misguided for many reasons.
You do realize the inaccuracy of the highlighted part I assume? With so much late money affecting the pools these days to suggest that you were the unfortunate victim of late brilliance defies reasoning. What happened was just was was expected to happen......the betting evened out at the end.

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Curiosity got the best of me


NO.

JR Cruiser who was claimed from a good horseman but one that wins at only 3%

was claimed by well meant Owner Moss into High% barn Amoss

JR Cruiser never recieved lasix in 13 starts.
a - possible drug interaction to lasix?
b- previous trainer was low budget and low meds (naturally leading to assumption he didn't pay for expensive performance nutrition/medications)


JR Cruiser showed no signs of health problems , and did show a willingness and response on critical replay review.


Watching the pools JRC fluctuated between 2nd and 3rd public choice. The favorite was ahead the whole time in the pools. The other 2nd choice was a Asmussen/Bridgmohan horse who was more attractive to the public.

After OFF the pools flashed and JRC had recieved a very disproportionate amount of money. In that flash the Asmussen horse recieved very little money. There was a $5000 increase in JRC's win pool money.

The late money was so odd, that I had to check the replay to see if JRC broke well on top (which he didn't), which would signal a possible past post.


3 possible probabilties

1. WHALE (positive expectation player with large bankroll) bet about $3,000 late to avoid drawing in the PUBLIC's late money and tote affected money

2. AMOSS knew he had a nice horse who was so far above this field now that he had given it Top Class nutrition and medication, that it really didn't belong in the 10k. Saw it was 4-1 in the program. And he or a partner made the 3k late wager. (yes trainers actually wager on their horses)

3. the PARIMUTUAL SYSTEM was erratic and by chance, the distribution of the win pool money was totaled in such a way that it gave a false appearance of disproportionate late money.


If you have a question ask me Hooves. Don't try to discredit me with something that I not only explained to you, but posted the horse well before the race and made a 63% profit on the wager which was also posted before the race.

Next time a sound hay/oats/water goes to a POWER BARN you can do your homework, if it is Amoss you can watch the win pool for disproportionate late money(to either verify your hunch, or to build a case that Whale or Parimutal was responsible) , and if he is a strong favorite in a nice size field you can check the Show pool to see if he is going to pay a lot to show :eek:


thats enough responses from me. Time for some good food and get ready for this weekend. We have a bunch of horses like indian blessing and grasshopper who may or may not lose as heavy chalk, we have zfortune getting lesser money than bridesmades like blackberryroad and pyro. It could be a big weekend.

Good luck