I have a few carla gaines human interest stories.....I should have called in.

I guess it's just me but I'm not sold on the group of 3yo's we have this year as being so good. I must say that I am surprised to see so many of them still racing turning in top performances in the fall after the way they battled in the spring and summer. After the TB Derby, I would have bet that either Street Sense or Any Given Saturday would not be around now. The Preakness was a battle for SS and Curlin and I thought for sure that the Belmont would knock out either Curlin or Rags. Well, ok that happened. But the point is that I've become so used to seeing so many of the leading 3yo's each year knocked out before we get to the BC that this is certainly a refreshing change. With racing being the sort of copycat game that it is, I hope that this year is not going to be an exception to the recent pattern of horses leaving early but will be the start of a new cycle of having them stick around longer. Even though in the case of SS and Hard Spun (maybe Curlin and AGS too), longer might just be through the end of the year. But after Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Giacomo, Jazil, Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat, Lion Heart, Bellamy Road, Empire Maker, Point Given, etc.....even the end of the year is an improvement.

I was reading in today's DRF where Asmussen said the weekend results "validated the form the 3yo's have had all year. This is a very special group of horses." I also read where they pointed out that Nafzger had said at the beginning of the year that this group was above the norm and this weekend's results confirmed that. What am I missing? I would guess that the consensus top five from the group are Curlin, SS, Hard Spun, AGS and Tiago right? No arguments here. How good are they though?

SS-ran that brilliant 108 Beyer in the Juvenile last year. This year, he ran a 110 and a 111 in the Derby and Preakness. In his last three, he's gone 105, 108, 107. Now some will say that the Dandy and this past race were preps and he wasn't full out. I get that. But what about the Travers? And he was put to a full test by Grasshopper in the Travers...who came back to lose in the Super Derby. How much has SS really progressed from last year and the spring of this year?

Hard Spun-ran a 107 figure in the Derby and has come back in his last three with 106, 107, 109. How much has he improved over the year? He was no match for AGS in the Haskell, was all out to beat First Defence (who came back to get bombed by better) and then benefitted from a perfect situation to beat SS in his last. I don't think there are too many out there that believe that in a truly run race with a sensible pace and some pressure that HS could beat the other top 3yo's at a distance beyond 8f.

AGS-he's an intriguing one. His Dwyer and Haskell wins were very nice and showed marked improvement over what he was doing in the spring. He appeared to be improving the way you like to see a 3yo do over the year.......until the Brooklyn. It wasn't just that he regressed back to a 103 figure but how he did it. He was really put to the test to beat a very horrible field of horses. Perhaps he was nowhere close to being set for his best and that race can be tossed. I am not so sure though.

Tiago-has gone from a 100 in the Belmont to a 103 in the Swaps to the 106 in the Goodwood so he's moving in the right direction but let's not be fooled here. That was a pretty pathetic group in the Goodwood and just like AGS in the Brooklyn and Hard Spun in the KY Cup Classic, it doesn't mean much to say he beat older when the older are that bad. Let's also be honest and say that when a horse is set to go into the BC Classic and his career high figure is a 106, there aren't many years when that horse would be considered one of the top half dozen choices. To me, it's a sign of this year's balanced (but below great) level of competition that he's even being considered a contender at all.

Curlin-In my opinion (and admittedly, I'm biased because he's been my Classic selection since the spring), he's the only one that's shown he has the potential to be a really top one. The JCGC was the top effort by a 3yo this year, not only because it earned the top figure of 114 but also because he beat Lawyer Ron, the two-time top routing figure horse of 2007. He didn't face an overmatched field (AGS) and he didn't have things his own way (Hard Spun) and he still got it done. His figure is not that much higher than the 111 he earned in the Preakness but with Curlin, he's the only one that I feel like there is more left in the tank.

They are consistent. They are balanced. But are they really that good?

you love those big bold numbers don't you?

Any worries that Curlin was dull at Monmouth and may not really like the surface?

Nope. I'd blame the layoff and the fact that they backed off some on him after a tough TC campaign more than I would blame a dislike for the track.

While I admire this filly and her accomplishments, and respect Carla Gaines and the rest of the connections for their excellent work, I have no problem saying flat out that there's no way Nashoba's Key will win HOY.

Since American racing is primarily known for its amazing dirt contests, HOY generally goes to a horse that has performed well on dirt (it takes a special turf runner indeed to overshadow our dirt racers; the last turf HOY I can remember was Kotashaan in 1993, and Nashoba's Key does not have Kotashaan's credentials), that has traveled widely and still maintained winning form (she has raced exclusively on the West Coast), and that has prevailed against a strong number of top-level competitors (she hasn't faced the same quality and quantity of competition as have others in the hunt for HOY).

More factors could be added to the list, but these are a good start.

And I'm not saying those factors necessarily should keep Nashoba's Key from winning HOY, but they will anyway.

Actually, I'd think it would give SS HOY if that happens.

I know SS won the Derby, but the Travers was pretty light on serious contenders. Grasshopper lost his next start and Sightseeing was nowhere to be seen in the Brooklyn.

I'd probably add Any Given Saturday to that list too. If he wins, I could see making a case for HOY for him.

i'd give HOY to smart strike.

I vote for Britney Spears as HOY :p

no, it's HORSE if the year, not whores.

One of those Dual Qualifiers perhaps :D

*spews cola* seriously give a warning before you throw that out there! :p I was mid gulp!

There's not a chance in Hades that anyone other than Rags gets 3yo filly. There's a better chance that the Ruffian movie will confuse the voters, make them think she came back from the dead, and cause them to give her the championship than for anybody in the current crop to beat Rags to Riches out of her trophy. After winning the Belmont, I hear she only needs two more miracles to qualify for sainthood.

Regarding the Classic, if neither Curlin nor SS won it would still be tight between them unless it was Lawyer Ron and as we all know, older male stayer on dirt is the trump card. Any of the other 3yos and I suspect it goes to Street Sense. I think the BC voters would get physically nauseous not being able to give it to the horse that broke the BC Juvie/Derby jinx. They've been dreaming of it for 23 years.

Nashoba's Key can win older female award if Ginger Punch fails in the Distaff.

glad i'm not the only one cleaning up the keyboard after reading a funny.
pillows pic of the frog with the french **** wine got me good.

and speaking of dual qualifying, rags performed more than one miracle.
faced males and won.
first filly to win in about a century.
won a spring classic for pletcher.

next she'll walk on water. and then maybe someone at the track will swear its her image in their half eaten sandwich, and they'll sell it on ebay.

Rags is our savior....Lear's Princess is the devil....and Nashoba's Key is...ummm....I'll think of something :)