porter already got a huge bankroll from selling the rights. then he gets a tremendous bonus with the gr 1 win. win, lose, or draw, he's got a HUGE amount of money from owning and then selling that horse. so, why not try the classic? it won't detract from the deal he's made, he's got his guaranteed bucks....it's only a win situation for him, there is no risk--horse is not going to be his after, he's got the money--why not try for the win?

Hard Spun's had four siblings - and all of them looked a little better on dirt.

Do you people realize that the Breeders Cup Classic is being run at Monmouth Park this year?

If it was run at most any other track - I think a rational case could probably be made for opting for another spot.

Cable Boy, Stormello, and Flying First Class are speed sprinters - I don't think they will be there to harass Hard Spun again...and make him rate - and no good horse looks any more uncomfortable rating than Hard Spun does.

He'll be vulnerable in the polytrack race at TP off his quick early - moderate late race on the sharp cut-back in the King's Bishop. I hope he runs VERY dismally in the TP race - and is "inexplicably" wheeled back to run in the Classic.

I'd love to get a big number on him come race day....and the worse he runs at TP - the less respect he gets from other riders in the race - the more likely he will be unpressured. And, as expectations lower, the more likely he is to finally be ridden correctly and with the proper tactics - and that is by gunning him to the lead (like in the Derby) and hoping the Monmouth Park track is as kind to one-dimensional speed as it was for the vast majority of the summer.

A real good performance by Hard Spun at TP - especially if it comes without being sent - is the absolute most discouraging thing someone who's intruged by him as a Breeders Cup Classic prospect would want to see.

Hard Spuns chances
Classic- Not very strong
Dirt Mile and 70- Probable favorite(unless Discrete Cat appears)
Sprint- Probably no worse than third choice
Turf Mile- Probably the most unlikely chance

Personally I think that regardless of distance, he is just not as good as Lawyer Ron, Street Sense, AGS, or Curlin. When you factor in the 1 1/4, I dont think he can win the race with Lawyer Ron in it, keeping the pace honest.

The dirt mile and 70 is IMO his greatest chance to win. The field will be moderate (who is out there?) and the distance is probably the closest to ideal for him.

I believe he could be a major contender for the sprint. He is plenty fast enough and the sprinters this year are pretty weak overall. There is plenty of prescedent for a horse of his type to turn back to 6 and win.(Smile, Precisionist, Gulch, etc.)

I give him little to no chance in the turf mile. 1st off despite his breeding, he is not the type that makes the transition stylewise, easily. Secondly, because the American turf horses are exceptionally weak this year, the Europeans that show up will have an even bigger advantage than usual. And Neil Drysdale is not training him. No offense to Larry Jones but Drysdale is a master at these situations and Larry Jones is much better with dirt sprinting types.

I would choose the mile and 70 race but there are other factors at play I'm sure. The least of which is the owners insistence to do things a little screwy. Personally it should not really make a difference whether or not the race is a grade 1 or not because despite the race not being a grade 1, people (breeders) will still consider it as such. The truth is that he has already done enough now (Kings Bishop) for a lot of people to consider breeding to him, though for those who think he will be a successful stallion should realize that there was a reason that there are very few good sons of Danzig standing in the US. I guess what I am saying is that he would be a whole lot better off winning the mile and 70 race or sprint than he would being 4th in the classic or 8th in the turf mile.

I will bet you that Monmouth will do everything possible to ensure the track is NOT speed favoring on BC day's 1 and 2. Dont you think that they recall the fallout from the perceived rail bias last year? Dont you think that every article written about Monmouth talks about the "speed favoring" track isn't read by Kulina and company? Don't you think that they don't want a parade of wire to wire winners which may hamper their efforts to get the Cup in the future? Isn't it possible that the track may play different in the late fall than it does in the summer?

There figures to be a lot of cheap speed in that race...and it's been cheap speed (and one bizarre Gomez ride) that has harassed this horse since the Derby.

While, from a percentage standpoint, it would look as though his chances are a lot better in that race because of the likely steep drop off in competition (unless DC comes back healthy and runs in that race) I think he has the look of a bet-against on race shape alone in the Dirt Mile. Opposite of that, I think he will have the look of an outstanding betting oppertunity, on race-shape alone, in the Breeders Cup Classic.

I agree with Chuck......when they all line up, do you really think he has a chance? Right now, he's at least 4th maybe 5th choice if the race includes SS, LR, AGS, and Curlin. So he lands another 15 million by winning the King's Bishop and now stands to collect 35 million when he hands the reigns to Darley, so the money is of least importance.....so from a competition perspective wouldn't you rather run a race where if everyone runs their best race, you got a shot? If everyone runs their best race in the BCC he's got no shot.

Well, why wouldn't Monmouth have done "everything possible" to ensure the track was not inside-speed favoring on ALL of their big racing days this year?

I know what you're saying - but, I'm not exactly betting on a slow, tiring, track come BC day.

Big racing days are rarely times when tracks showcase their ability to make their racetrack as slow and tiring as possible.

Because there is little chance that they will lose the Haskell to Belmont or Churchill. They are under the microscope and be sure that they know it. If you see 3 or 4 wire to wire winners in the dirt races ypu can be sure you wont see Monmouth with another Breeders Cup.

[Big racing days are rarely times when tracks showcase their ability to make their racetrack as slow and tiring as possible.

Man..if the track is going to be playing slow- Baffert might boycott :rolleyes:

LOL, whaaaaaa, whaaaaaaa:D

if this is an issue they are concerned with, why wouldn't they have already taken the steps to make the track less speed favoring? why do it only on those two days? won't that also look bad to make a last minute surface change? what good did it do for the people who sent their BC contenders out there to get a race in on the surface, if they go and substantially alter it at the last minute?

"Changing" the track is a simple process of taking extra dirt off , adding some or adding clay, changing the length of the harrows, adding water or not...
They dont have to dig it up or anything.

How will we know how the surface is playing until the BC days since they have no races there now?

I am always skeptical about saying a race over the track in July has any effect in November under different circumstances like the fact it will probably be 45 degrees colder and likely wetter.

i wasn't implying it was a complicated process to change it, but that track has played pretty consistently for some time. i guess fall weather is another variable though. lots of attention will be focused on the prelimary races.

It is like 3/5 to rain that weekend anyway

King Glorious
 

Lure demolished a field in his grass debut prior to running second on soft or yielding turf in the Kelso.

Maybe entering Hard Spun in the turf mile isn't such a bad idea...when it gets washed off and we have 3/4 of the field scratch..he would be a lock! :D

Coming off the turf wont happen no matter what

But I would like to see a horse entered
MTO-No rider

in the Turf.

That's about as likely to happen as the Cleveland Browns scoring over 50 points in a game.

Oh don't say that Chuck...My seats are on the apron and there is only enough room inside for 20 people, 30 tops...