Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   Praise For Del Mar (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15910)

Scav 08-14-2007 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I forgot who I was talking to. Thanks for the lesson.

Let me ask you this, how much have you played tracks with poly, on a consistent basis?

ArlJim78 08-14-2007 10:30 AM

The great thing about poly is the amount of misinformation going around and that people tend to react irrationally when faced with this new variable.

Scav 08-14-2007 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Not very consistent. I played both Keeneland meets and dabble at Cali. I just thought your "angles" are basic handicapping, no offense.

They might be basic, but the public sure hasn't picked up on them yet.

How can you argue about something that you haven't had alot of experience with?

Sometimes the simplest angles go over looked, which happens on all surfaces, but as aj said, people overreact to this stuff, all they have to do is change up their capping a little

miraja2 08-14-2007 10:43 AM

I think the addition of a third surface has to help good handicappers in the long run. Being able to track the patterns of dirt-to-poly and poly-to-dirt performances is crucial.
At Arlington, for example, there have been a number of horses coming in off nice performances at CD or Hawthorne that have been seriously overbet (especially on Saturdays when there is a lot of dead money at the track) because the switch to poly wasn't given enough consideration. I also think the "turf horses love poly" angle has been seriously overblown, so horses with good turf form are often severely overbet in their poly debuts.
So like I said, I think the addition of a third surface helps the good handicappers. That, of course, is why I hate it. I need something to help us crappy handicappers.

pgardn 08-14-2007 10:47 AM

I find it very hard to believe that synth. is totally random surface.
One of the main problems is the belief that fast horses are better. Or horses with a high cruising rate are better. It might just be this surface plays to endurance in a very diff. way that grass. And the horses you think or thought were crap (for whatever reason; its usually price or level run at on dirt), are actually tough animals in a war of attrition on a tiring surface. Or maybe they have a hoovestrike and stride that works well on the surface under certain conditions.

There has to be a way to cap it. It may be People are going to have to change notions and old habits drastically. I just have a hard time labeling a horse as crap when he/she has just beaten 9 other horses just because I lost a bet.

Hell maybe its just a matter of a horse relaxing and not battling the surface. Especially if they have been bred for, and trained on dirt.

I am glad it is here. And I am glad it adds some confusion. Because that leaves openings for folks willing to try and figure it out. I have seen many more horses in each race on the stuff, and larger payouts. I dont see what is wrong with that unless you are stuck on old methods that dont work anymore.

Now after stating all this betting stuff. I would much rather watch a horse run on dirt because its beautiful the way the horses can stride out on it. It really makes the horses look like the great athletes they are.

ArlJim78 08-14-2007 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn
I find it very hard to believe that synth. is totally random surface.

it isn't anywhere close to random. i would like to know how people are coming to this conclusion. where is the data? frankly I find it less random than dirt.

pgardn 08-14-2007 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
it isn't anywhere close to random. i would like to know how people are coming to this conclusion. where is the data? frankly I find it less random than dirt.

I will admit syn. is more confusing for me, but I really have not had time to look at it closely. So I will defer to the more resourceful, flexible, everyday cappers.

Scav 08-14-2007 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
What am I arguing? I just think your angles are basic handicapping. The public, as a whole doesn't know what they are doing, which is why skilled handicappers are able to make money.

I am in the middle with Poly right now. I don't think poly is as good or as bad as it is talked about here. But I do think it was rushed into places that really didn't need it, like California. But the surface, from what I have seen, and while not betting a ton, I watch almost every race, is not easy to gauge. A simple changing up capping isn't enough on a surface that is unpredictable.

California was in DESPERATE need for it. Santa Anita track was horrible about breakdowns as was Del Mar.

I actually don't think this is as much about the actual surface but the actual bottom of the track. When installing poly track, you essentially start from ground zero, thus installing an even track. The old 'bottom' of Arlington was horrible, which led to all those breakdowns last year, with the new bottom, we have had substantially less. The recent breakdowns were because the horses were sore and had major problems, but we haven't had any healthy horses break down because of the surface, not a one

Scav 08-14-2007 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Disagree about Cali. They had breakdowns, but the reasons are not so clear.

Weren't a lot of the breakdowns on each surface last year because of sore horses? I seem to remember a fantastic article written by Christine janks about it. Seems like a sore horse will breakdown on any surface, so instead of spending millions and millions of dollars, how about making a concerned effort to get horses that have problems off of the track.

There were like 40 breakdowns, and about 20 of them were in the same exact on the track. Far turn near the rail

Scav 08-14-2007 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
What track are you talking about?

Arlington

Scav 08-14-2007 09:11 PM

Quote:

"The old handicappers, the ones that have been around 30 years, are all mixed up," he said. "It's very slow. It's a brand-new project. Our old tracks, the sandy loam, were fine. We started getting problems when they started adding wood products to them, and it would ball up in their feet."
Per Bruce Headley speaking about old school handicappers having problems.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/87604.html

pgardn 08-14-2007 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
He also said the way the old tracks were was fine. I'd also love to see these new school handicappers that are doing so good handicapping the stuff because I have not seen it.

If there is money to be made, they will come. You can be sure of that. It may be like a new market has opened up.

pmayjr 08-14-2007 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Some people have been playing tracks like Del Mar and Hollywood Park for 20 years, they have all these built up angles and experiences with wagering. Perfect example is that Ata Dynaformer horse with EG Burnison or wahtever his name is. I had NO IDEA who tha person was, but for 20 years he has been sneaking horses in and someone caught on to it. The fact that the surface has changed, it has opened it up for younger people to create their own angles from the start, we are essentially getting new tracks thus new angles.

You don't beat this game right away, it takes experience, time and a beating. Right now, everyone is back to square one with polytrack

Scav,

The past 2 years have been the first 2 that I've started playing So-Cal tracks on a somewhat frequent basis. Why? The field sizes. Whether it has something to do with the switch to poly or not, the field sizes are getting bigger, and therefore bettable. Yuo're still seeing the 5 and 6-horse fields, but not nearly as much as a few years ago.

JJP 08-14-2007 11:05 PM

I believe Arlington had 24 breakdowns last year, not 40. As for the earlier comment about randomness with Polytrack, there's no question its more random. Until the majority of horses have run 5-6 times over it, one can only draw limited conclusions. I'll bet TP, where 95% of the non-maidens have run over it, and I feel speed at least has some chance. But the crap that they run on at Kee, AP and Dmr is just brutal to watch. It looks like all the speed tires, and the deep closers can't get in gear quick enough, and the midpack runners basically inherit the win with their one paced style. And ALL the runners look like they are struggling in the stretch. Let's hope PETA doesnt watch these debacles.

I find some horseman's comments very strange: they talk about the surface not "breaking away" like dirt, yet the horses' hooves must be sinking in further because the times are so much slower. What gives? And supposedly the horses come back after a race or workout and barely blowing? Yet it seems that every horse is struggling in the stretch....yet another contradiction.

theiman 08-15-2007 12:15 AM

I have a question regarding the DM surface vs other polytracks at Arlington, Keeneland, TP, and Woodbine. It seems DM Management was insistant on not watering the track, as some horsemen had asked to perhaps tighten it up, or make it firmer. Now DM will get no rain during their meet at all. Yet the other polytracks all get rain during their meets and the tracks seem to play fairer or at least time wise a bit more normal. What effect would one or two rounds of the water truck, a day, have on the track, that rain at the other places have been able to handle? I cant see it hurting the track as the rain is supposed to filter thru the track and keep it "fast" all the time. Was it something to do with not putting the "jelly" thing into the DM polytrack vs the other poly's?

I am all for a safe surface yet it seems the research and scenarios to keep a surface safe, and competive were not done.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:42 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.