where is any race of his that demonstrates he could win the classic? there will likely be three 3yo's that have beat him at various distances, (Street Sense, Curlin, AGS). To me its inconceivable that even if he inherits an easy lead that he will lull everyone to sleep and steal it, even given the weakness of the older division.

I'm not a historian, has the classic ever been wired? if so how many times.?

in all honesty i get the sense that you are joking.

Joking about what?

Actually it's been done 3 times:

1991 - Black Tie Affair
2000 - Tiznow
2004 - the amazing Ghostzapper

Actually most of the stalkers were headed backwards by then given that horses like Teuflesberg, Stormello, and Cowtown Cat really had no chance. After the quarter that I spoke of the first four horses were:

Hard Spun-Sedgefield-Street Sense-Any Given Saturday-Nobiz Like Shobiz. That quarter basically allowed Street Sense to make that big move around the turn and get right into contention.

I am not interested in debating whether the pace in the Derby was hot, because we can both agree that it was, whether there was a slow quarter in there or not. However, our opinions differ significantly on Hard Spun's future (in)ability to win a 1 1/4 mile race against the upper echelon.

NT

Wild Again dueled with Slew O' Gold's rabbit through insane fractions and won at a big price (he was 30/1 on the ML)

I'm almost positive Skywalker won wire-to-wire

Black Tie Affair went wire-to-wire and earned one of the all-time fastest Beyers in the history of the race

Ghostzapper went wire-to-wire and earned jointly the all-time fastest figure in the history of this race.

You have to remember though, there was no BC Dirt Mile in years past, and the cheap speed horses who run in the Classic each year would have gone in that race if there had been.

about Hard Spun sneaking off and winning the classic.

thanks,

I'm delighted to hear.

I just wish HS would be kept routing so I could have the oppertunity to get the inflated odds he'd be....based on this silly concept that he isn't capable of beating slightly better horses in a race tailor-made for him.

I remember... Ghostzapper, Tiznow @ CD, Cat Thief?, Black Tie Affair, Wild Again?. I think...

Just a shot in the dark, but I'm guessing the so-called "silly" concept emanates from his numerous defeats against slightly better horses and his one graded stakes win against much, much worse competition.

NT

I think that Hard Spun has the potential to be a one-turn MONSTER. This is totally the right move, but unfortunately, with this crop, you're gonna face some very good horses at any distance you try. Black Seventeen and Teuflesberg will give him fits.

He's already racing against the toughest competition that he's going to face come BC day IMO. He's already finished ahead of Curlin, while both coming off of the shelf. AGS was prepped and ready for this last one obviously. He finished well with SS in the Derby, a race that many pitch due to it's unique style. There isnt an older male or female out there that would send tremors through his camp, as they believe he has been running against the best all year. (save Turfway race)
To say that he's on a different "tier" than the other 3 yr. olds is laughable. He's right there with them all. I guess we'll have to wait and see for the last weekend in OCtober.

He just ran a 108 Beyer at MTH, off a layoff, where an early stumble cost him his chance of making the pace.

You are talking about as though he sucks.

I was dumb enough to have bet Any Given Saturday in the Derby, I know he had trouble and came out of it with a foot bruise, but he's had by far the best trip in each of his last two wins.

Street Sense has dressed up form and won't get the kind of pace he needs to produce his best.

Lawyer Ron was beaten at MTH by loose speed Gottcha Gold less than two months ago, anyone who knows JRV's style of riding knows this horse won't be applying pressure to the front-runner.

Curlin is another horse who needs pace...HS has beaten him in two of their four encounters.

There is no one else out there.

Has Black Seventeen gone seven furlongs yet? I think Hard Spun can handle the Teuf at 7 furlongs.

His race was probably the most visually impressive win that I've ever seen (on replay). Unbelievable how he was still there at the wire, let alone fending off a late charge by a stretch runner. Wasn't that the inception year of BC?

None of those races played to his style like the Breeders Cup Classic likely will.

It's as if a lot of you guys assume circumstances have nothing to do with outcomes.

Since I started this thing, and do really love Hard Spun, I just want to be clear that in no way do I endorse him running in the Classic. I'm tired of watching him try so hard, only to come up short. I like King's Bishop, Kelso, and if successful in the Kelso the BC Mile. If for some reason the Danzig colt doesn't like the grass, an outcome that would be tough to fathom, then run him in either the mile dirt or BC Sprint. IMO the mile dirt is cheesy so I'd take my chances in the BC Sprint based on his performance in the King's Bishop.

Visually impressive? No doubt about it!

However, it wasn't fast. They ran the Breeders Cup Distaff at 10 furlongs back than, and the spectacular Princess Rooney's final time in victory was much faster than Wild Again's.

It was the inagural Breeders Cup.