Derby Trail Forums - TG Sheet players...Scat Daddy question

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never liked bird, but figs say he is a contender....he wont get my $.

Since this is a TG thread......any chance James Wilfred hits the board at 20-1 in the Aventura......questions abound with the field, and I see speed and fade for many in here. No way he wins, but exotic filler maybe?

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

He ran his best race with the wraps on. . . But he won't win this one either way. . .

Not true, he matched his last number without wraps....And you can squeeze a few big races out of them in wraps. See FuPeg. Here, and then gone....But Birdie isn't really that good to begin with.

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Not true, he matched his last number without wraps....And you can squeeze a few big races out of them in wraps. See FuPeg. Here, and then gone....But Birdie isn't really that good to begin with.

I agree about Bird might not being that talented, but numbers don't lie, but they do hide some things sometimes. If you don't believe Birds number, then you won't believe Circular's or whoever else ran in that races' number

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Not true, he matched his last number without wraps....And you can squeeze a few big races out of them in wraps. See FuPeg. Here, and then gone....But Birdie isn't really that good to begin with.

If McPeek was trying to squeeze a few big races out of him, why would he take the wraps off for the La. Derby?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Your wrap theory was blown out of the water there, he won with them first on.

That is a pretty solid number off a 100 day layoff Randall.....He moves forward a little, he could be a great price play come the Derby. I do worry about only 21 days and shipping, and also about FG numbers being somewhat fast sometimes

Horses win with wraps all the time. That doesn't blow any theory out of the water....This is from a blog and repost of part of an article about this topic.

Ed Fountaine of the NY Post is a bit skeptical of Street Sense. Not because he's found the shortest way home in his last two races, but because he came out on Saturday wearing front bandages, as he did in the Juvenile in November.

One explanation for the Breeders' Cup Jinx is that nine Juvenile winners never even made it to the Derby. Might "Sense" fall among their number? When he wore front bandages for the first time in the BC Juvenile, trainer Carl Nafzger said it was to protect him after he bruised a foot. When Street Sense came out wearing them again 41/2 months later, you had to wonder if the rumors over the winter about his physical condition had substance.

Now, front bandages on a Triple Crown contender don't make him an automatic toss. In recent years, Fusaichi Pegasus won the Derby, Smarty Jones the Derby and Preakness, and Afleet Alex the Preakness and Belmont Stakes with front wraps on. Then again, none of them lasted long after that. Fusaichi won one race after the Derby; "Smarty" and "Alex" never raced again after the Belmont.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Randall I see you are very anti wraps. Why? Some trainers always use them no matter what, just a matter of preference.

B/c I gamble all the time and history tells me all I need to know of young horses and wraps. See above post from the blog.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

No offense but Ed Fountaine knows about as much as my dog about horse racing.

This isn't a comment on his horse knowledge. But let's be honest, those with wraps added in their 3 yr old season leading up to the grind of the Triple Crown haven't even been around for the Travers in most cases.

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

B/c I gamble all the time and history tells me all I need to know of young horses and wraps. See above post from the blog.

If I ever own a horse he is getting wrapped from head to toe for every race possible

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

If I ever own a horse he is getting wrapped from head to toe for every race possible

LOL! Go for it...I will not bet them unless its a claiming race where most of them are cripples to begin with.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

If I ever own a horse he is getting wrapped from head to toe for every race possible

Will you name the horse Mummy ?:D

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Well no need to get into a whole Street Sense thing right now. Sure FuPeg, wasn't in the Travers, but really he was a very fragile horse. The fact he won the Derby had a great deal to do with what a great trainer Drysdale is. Smarty and Alex got hurt. It happens....A LOT.

Hey Dahoss, I'm not trying to change anyone's minds on here about it. It's part of my belief system. I do bet horses with wraps sometimes, but when specific circumstances are at play....I will never, and I mean never bet a horse who needs wraps on the turf. Let them beat me every single time....No bar shoes on the turf either, although what an effort by Leroi in the BR mile that year. Wish he were healthy b/c he ran some scary turf numbers.

Scat Daddy wins again!!!!!!

I love Scat Daddy and hope he wins, but I have a feeling that Stormello might be too tough in this one.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Notional - great progression after that monster Debut, closely getting back to that number which makes him a strong Derby candidate

wildcrazyguy - no

Scat Daddy - I agree with Randall, him getting back to that number means he is in great form. he might very well explode in this race, which is fine with me because I am not playing him in the derby

Adore - no

Stormello - another derby prospect. I am praying that he runs about a 2 or a 2.5 in this race so I can just unload on him in the Derby. Derby will be 3rd race off the layoff and I expect a 2nd or 3rd here. Hope he doesn't run his eyeballs out

Cheloadsfiaolee - no, too slow, will get overplayed because of Barbaro angle

Boggs - like the pair up from last, could mean move forward, probably not forward enough

John Star - should have sold when had the chance

Bird - Ran his two year old number off the shelf, which is HUGE. According to Jerry Brown of TG, that race was better then it looked out of him with that '!' notion on his sheet. Beware tomorrow and also depending tomorrows race, beware in the derby

So, all in all, for Tomorrow's race, I like Scat Daddy and Bird to run well. But, thinking ahead to the Derby, I think both Notional and Stormello have favorable sheets and with slight move forwards tomorrow, could be great plays on Derby Day

Quality run-down Scav, I'll just add a few thoughts;
Notional has a very strong pattern, zero first out sprinting, then 2 poly races (7 & 10), comes back at 3 with a 6 and then a 2.75 last at FG, 7 weeks rest. I call this a circle back pattern, sets up well today with the rail.
Scat Daddy, return to top of 1 in last is strong, but the fact that he "bounced" off of his last 1 is cause for concern, although mitigating factor is BC Juvenile, golden rail angle... which makes this a tricky read.. basically as the favorite, play to react, if he were a price, play to pair (that's my general theory on this type of line).
Adore the Gold is also a tough pattern to read, 1-2-4 in last 3 races, certainly not a single in here.
Chelokee is not THAT slow, has a 3 to run back to from last year.
BirdBird has a very healthy pattern, last was buried 3 first off the layoff, has improved or paired every race, need to see how the track is playing to deep closers.

Root, I don't like the pattern on James Wilfred, he has the isolated top of 5, but generally runs 8-9, which is what I would expect today... Green Vegas is FAST, might be the best bet of the day.

An absolute slam dunk for the Thoros in this race.

Scat Daddy did in fact match or move forward of his top matching his two year old number. Notional continued his line moving forward, though this number for most likely a touch off the last one..And Adore The Gold X'd like he was supposed to.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

If I ever own a horse he is getting wrapped from head to toe for every race possible

i recommend bubble wrap!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

One thing I forgot to mention: thorograph pattern reads DO NOT APPLY to Todd Pletcher! This is not sour grapes, it's simply the TRUTH!

A hot Prado (versus a crappy Albarado) is worth 2 lengths (minimum.) Exchange jocks,and you'd get the exacta reversed.There are a lot of top rate jocks,but that is strictly a "B" level jock.