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-   -   my derby top 10.. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11098)

Dunbar 03-23-2007 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Actually there is no real limit to how much 5000-1 you could take because you could easily turn around and give people 500-1 on him for whatever you bet....or more.
Excellent point! And if you give me the 500-1, I can turn around and find someone who would love 250-1. My goodness, that 5000-1 could support a small economy!

--Dunbar

hoovesupsideyourhead 03-23-2007 04:09 PM
its the way he did it ..chrolklee ..hes moving forward and was only a few ticks off cauys time with trouble..

disappearingdan_akaplaya 03-23-2007 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis
1. Great Hunter - (Looks to the best of the West, but so did Brother Derek last year :eek: )

2. Any Given Saturday - (Handled the Tampa surface with ease, only gets better for him)

3. No Biz Like Showbiz - (Hard to say any of the 4 "Lost" the FoY)

4. Stormello - (See #3)

5. Street Sense - (set track record in the Tampa quicksand - hope it didn't take too much out of him)

6. Adore the Gold - (See #3)

7. Ketchikan - (hope he stays under the radar - probably like 40-1 on Derby Day!)

8. Scat Daddy - (See #3)

9. Notional - (Meh...)

10. Circular Quay - (See #9)

totally agree with your point on the horse you have listed as#2

POINTGIVEN1985 03-23-2007 05:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I would take 5000-1 on this horse for at least $1000.

Is there no end to the idiocy?
why ? because he won a weak allowance race ? what is wrong with you ?

POINTGIVEN1985 03-23-2007 05:29 PM
this is unreal reading these responses, do any of you really belive this horse is better then street sense any given saturday nobiz circular quay great hunter notional scat daddy adore the gold stormello forfathers hard spun , hes not better then 1 horse i named, and i could name about 10 more including 3 fillies

POINTGIVEN1985 03-23-2007 05:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar
That got me thinking. How much money would you have to have available for betting horses (or devoted to horses and other roughly similar investments), to justify what would be considered a "correct" bet on Chelokee of $1000 at 5000-1 odds?

I think Ed Thorp showed that the correct "Kelly" bet was Bankroll*%ADV/odds. ("%ADV" is percent advantage, your expected return on the bet) For a $1000 bet, then, 1000=Bankroll*%ADV/5000. Therefore, Bankroll*%ADV would have to equal 5 million.

If fair odds on Chelokee are as "low" as 250-1, then %ADV is (5000/250) -1 = 19. (or 1900%) Therefore, you'd need a 5000000/19 = $263,000 bankroll to justify that $1000 bet at 5000-1.

But if fair odds on Chelokee are even lower, say 75-1, then a 77K bankroll would be more than enough.

And yes, I'm sure by now you are thinking that "no, there is no end to this idiocy!"

--Dunbar
listen put all the numbers up you want, would you put that kind of money on a horse that more then likely wont even make the race ?

blackthroatedwind 03-23-2007 05:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
why ? because he won a weak allowance race ? what is wrong with you ?

I have a myriad of problems, no doubt, but one of them is not a failure to understand odds. Sadly I now know that you don't understand odds....hopefully I won't learn any more of your problems in the future.

brianwspencer 03-23-2007 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
forfathers
lol in every way.

blackthroatedwind 03-23-2007 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
this is unreal reading these responses, do any of you really belive this horse is better then street sense any given saturday nobiz circular quay great hunter notional scat daddy adore the gold stormello forfathers hard spun , hes not better then 1 horse i named, and i could name about 10 more including 3 fillies

I hadn't realized that you were offering more than 5000-1 on all those horses.

I'll be pulling my lear jet, I JUST bought it, into Schenectady momentarily.

POINTGIVEN1985 03-23-2007 05:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I hadn't realized that you were offering more than 5000-1 on all those horses.

I'll be pulling my lear jet, I JUST bought it, into Schenectady momentarily.
can u read ? at no point did i offer a thing i said i would not take him at those odds, and i wouldnt im sticking by that, way way to much hype for a horse who has done nothing

blackthroatedwind 03-23-2007 05:57 PM
Unfortunately I can read.

randallscott35 03-23-2007 06:04 PM
Couple of points from reading this thread. First, I agree with Chuck about Great Hunter. I'm not that interested in anyone else at this point....Also agree with Andy about Scat Daddy although I said that about everyone from the FOY. They are all slowish. And Scat Daddy needs to be ridden b/c he's a grinder and he isn't even a fast grinder at that. He is a poor man's Limehouse who was able to finish 4th in a bad crop. This one couldn't manage that.

As for the 5000-1 comment, I'm sure Pointgiven didn't realize what he was saying so I'm not going to pile on.

POINTGIVEN1985 03-23-2007 06:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Unfortunately I can read.
well did i offer that or did i just say i wouldnt take it ? what is the big deal ? i dont like the horse i think he is a third tier horse, maybe lower, i like the horse he beat alot better, for you reppo... i was just trying to point out my dislike for him, i feel he's overated, i dont see what the big deal is

POINTGIVEN1985 03-23-2007 06:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35
Couple of points from reading this thread. First, I agree with Chuck about Great Hunter. I'm not that interested in anyone else at this point....Also agree with Andy about Scat Daddy although I said that about everyone from the FOY. They are all slowish. And Scat Daddy needs to be ridden b/c he's a grinder and he isn't even a fast grinder at that. He is a poor man's Limehouse who was able to finish 4th in a bad crop. This one couldn't manage that.

As for the 5000-1 comment, I'm sure Pointgiven didn't realize what he was saying so I'm not going to pile on.
i did realize what i was saying, if you offered me those odds now, i would not take them. its my opinion i think the horse has 0 shot to win the derby

randallscott35 03-23-2007 06:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
i did realize what i was saying, if you offered me those odds now, i would not take them. its my opinion i think the horse has 0 shot to win the derby
But PG (what is your actual first name so its easier to respond if you don't mind) 5000-1 is not necessary to get action. As others said you could get the same action for 250-1. I know you aren't serious to taking bets b/c no one here thinks you have the bank for it. But I don't like the horses chances but I'd be inclined to bet at those odds because they aren't realistic.

POINTGIVEN1985 03-23-2007 07:07 PM
my name is dominick, and i never said i had that kind of bankroll to take 5000-1 on something, i doubt anyone on here does

outofthebox 03-23-2007 07:13 PM
i,
 
War Emblem, Monarchos, Giacomo, just a few of the Ky
Derby winners in since 2000. I wonder if any of these winners would have been on any top ten lists at this stage. Point is that there is still so much time before the Derby and horses can go either way so quickly. I enjoy reading everyones list, and just wonder how much changing will be going on in the next few weeks after the major preps. In all likely hood the winner of the Derby might not have won his final prep.

POINTGIVEN1985 03-23-2007 07:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by outofthebox
War Emblem, Monarchos, Giacomo, just a few of the Ky
Derby winners in since 2000. I wonder if any of these winners would have been on any top ten lists at this stage. Point is that there is still so much time before the Derby and horses can go either way so quickly. I enjoy reading everyones list, and just wonder how much changing will be going on in the next few weeks after the major preps. In all likely hood the winner of the Derby might not have won his final prep.
giacomo and monarchos were at least both stakes placed at this point

blackthroatedwind 03-23-2007 07:24 PM
The bottom line is you said you wouldn't bet the horse at 5000-1, which is exceedingly foolish, as anytime you can take even five times the actual chances of any horse winning it is worth it to take the bet. If nothing else you can find a way to arbitrage the bet to make money. Instead of arguing with everyone that disagrees with you, like refusing to listen to the very sound logic that tried to lead you away from the worst sucker bet of 2007 ( Marina Market ), maybe you should at least occasionally think about what the other person is saying. Hell, even I do that on occasion.


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