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-   -   Tips/Thoughts on Breeders' Cup tickets this year? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24969)

Danzig 10-21-2008 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny
Considering the ship, change in climate (when racing in SoCal, FLA) the fact that most Euro's are beyond their best races when they get here etc, I think it's a fine record. Also, while those listed above all ran well in BC races, several, Domedriver, Lashkari, Tikkanen and don't forget Arcangues were not considered the very best in Europe.
As for all Euro's liking soft going, it's a myth. Dylan Thomas was undone by the soft going at Mon. Remember, they almost scratched because he didn't like soft. Daylami did his best in Europe on firmer going and when Euro's go to the Mid-East and Asia they often get rock hard turf and still win. This myth is like the one that holds that all Euro's are routers. Guess what, they've been runing G1 sprints on grass in Europe for ages now! I just wish that some of their sprinters would come here for the BC. I'd have thought the SA course might have suited them, though most as used to to a straightaway sprint.

but i don't think their idea of firm going is what we classify as firm. they all water their tracks when there isn't rain. i know some don't like the softer footing, but their tracks are still rather deep-and far from the firm footing in places such as santa anita.

Danzig 10-21-2008 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Keep in mind, on average, I'd guess the BC Turf draws 4-5 Euros and 9-10 Americans, so being >50% is a definitive statistical advantage.
(I guess they're 13-24 now with Red Rocks and English Channel added now... although with the dead heat in '03 I think they'd have to count a win for both)

That being said, they rarely send their top stock. It always seems to be their 2nd tier group, this year no different.

i don't know that you can say they don't send their best-ouija board was certainly one of the best. i think the best who don't run in the arc end up coming-it's a tricky time of year for their horses. i know at least one juvie that was supposed to show ended up not coming since her winter coat came in. too warm for them in cali, and they said that generally you see a bit of a drop in a horses efforts once they get that coat going.

i'm not disputing that on average the euros have better turfers, i just don't think it's this huge dominating thing they've got going as some seem to think. since it's pretty much an exclusive type of racing for them, and turf is secondary here, i'd think it would stand to reason that they would have an edge since it's all they concentrate on. also, it's not as tho we can't breed a good turf horse, they get bred quite often in ky-and invariably end up overseas after being purchased at auction. we export our best and brightest turfers, everyone here focuses on dirt. with good reason i'd say, look at how much emphasis is placed on the classic here, not the turf. it's where the money's at.

GBBob 10-21-2008 08:14 PM

Which would you prefer?
 
A BC run in mud/slop on dirt or the BC run on a synthetic surface?

And this isn't a biased question....interested in which people would rather handicap, which is a better money making opportunity, and which surface is fairer.

And a dry, dirt track is not an option here.

3kings 10-21-2008 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GBBob
A BC run in mud/slop on dirt or the BC run on a synthetic surface?

And this isn't a biased question....interested in which people would rather handicap, which is a better money making opportunity, and which surface is fairer.

And a dry, dirt track is not an option here.

This is probably dodging the question but I'll take this years BC over last years, because the turf races should be more form full.

GBBob 10-21-2008 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings
This is probably dodging the question but I'll take this years BC over last years, because the turf races should be more form full.

Understood..and I guess I should have narrowed it to the main track only.

VOL JACK 10-21-2008 08:21 PM

Personally, I would take the mud over the fake turf.
Thanks to Mike Helms' sire ratings I have been doing unusally well on the slop this year.

Bigsmc 10-21-2008 08:21 PM

Neither.

I cut way back on my wagering last year because of the slop, more so because of the bog masquerading as a grass course and I'm cutting all the way back this year.

CD in '10.

MaTH716 10-21-2008 08:29 PM

I think both scenarios make the baby races even harder to play with horses catching synthetic or slop for the first time.

As for handicapping, I would pefer the slop. You would think that most of these horses have some sort of off track lines/form in their pp's. Not to mention their bloodlines too.

geeker2 10-21-2008 08:36 PM

That's a tough question - but I think I prefer a microbrew.

Shouldn't you be packing?

3kings 10-21-2008 08:38 PM

I'll say the poly this year........last year most of the horses had never run on muddy tracks or bad turf. This year many of the horse have been exposed to some sort of synthetic track in training or races.

GBBob 10-21-2008 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geeker2
That's a tough question - but I think I prefer a microbrew.

Shouldn't you be packing?

Stay on topic Schlitz-boy

geeker2 10-21-2008 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GBBob
Stay on topic Schlitz-boy


I laughed :tro:

munster705 10-21-2008 08:57 PM

Breeder's Cup PP's
 
Hey Guys

Does anyone know when PP's will be available???

The Bid 10-21-2008 09:00 PM

Please......dirt.

hockey2315 10-21-2008 09:21 PM

They're FINALLY out. . . Sans post positions and morning line of course. . .

Pedigree Ann 10-21-2008 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig
i really wish i could remember where i saw the article about the 'euro turfers better than us tufers' thing being far from true. stats don't back it up at all. the top turf horses there run on very soft, very deep turf.

This is not entirely true. I was over there in Britain for a year (just returned in August) and there were some spells when the rain was scarce and the ground was pretty firm. As I recall, the entire Ascot meet was conducted on firm ground; horses were scratched because they didn't like 'to hear their feet rattle.'

Indian Charlie 10-21-2008 09:39 PM

The most interesting race on the BC card(s)...
 
The Damascus, after the Classic.

As much as I can't stand this group of three year olds, it should be interesting seeing the return of Into Mischief, Gayego and Georgie Boy all in the same race.

SCUDSBROTHER 10-21-2008 10:15 PM

Why she keep trying that Dancing in Silks going 7f? What am I missing ? Guess she is counting on speed bias stretching him out. This lady that trains Georgie Boy has probably moved into a house with him by now. I mean that horse is her life. Be surprised if he doesn't win at low odds. THAT IS HIS DISTANCE.

sumitas 10-21-2008 10:19 PM

I prefer a cozy , dry spot to do my handicapping .


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