5/6 (CD): KENTUCKY DERBY

1. Forte 190 (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
2. Practical Move 160 (Yakteen/Vazquez)
3. Angel of Empire 154 (Cox/Prat)
4. Tapit Trice 150 (Pletcher/Saez)
5. Two Phil’s 123 (Rivelli/Loveberry)
6. Lord Miles 105 (Joseph/P. Lopez)
7. Derma Sotogake-JPN 100 (Otonashi/Lemaire)
8. Kingsbarns 100 (Pletcher/J. Ortiz (tent.))
9. Raise Cain 64 (Colebrook/Corrales/Machado)
10. Rocket Can 60 (Mott/Alvarado)

11. Hit Show 60 (Cox/Franco)
12. Confidence Game 57 (Desormeaux/Graham)
13. Verifying 54 (Cox/Gaffalione)
14. Sun Thunder 54 (McPeek/B. Hernandez)
15. Mage 50 (Delgado/Castellano)
16. Disarm 46 (Asmussen/Rosario)
17. Reincarnate 45 (Yakteen/Velazquez)
18. Jace’s Road 45 (Cox/Geroux)
19. Skinner 45 (Shirreffs/J. Hernandez)
20. Continuar-JPN (Yahagi/Sakai) JPN Auto-bid
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22. Cyclone Mischief 45 (Romans/TBA)
23. Major Dude 40 (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
24. Mandarin Hero 40 (Fujita/Kimura)
25. King Russell 40 (Moquett/Bejarano)

My longshot futures bet on Jace’s Road remains alive for now.

Kind of like Ted Williams' frozen head...

I’ve got the same shot of winning as Lloyd Christmas sleeping with Mary Swanson.

Stranger things have happened.

Mine That Bird winning was like Lloyd and Harry making it to Aspen on "The Hog"...

Hall of Famer Javier Castellano ~ he of 6 Travers, 2 Preaknesses & 12 Breeder's Cup wins but with a strangely dismal Derby record ~ lands Mage..

Having been named on Raise Cain last week, the Castellano/Mage move brings into question whether Ben Colebrook is running..

If not, add Skinner to the lineup..

Colebrook tells Dave Grening they are still planning on running.. Luan Machado being mentioned as possible rider.

The Pace Cast from today's discussion with Ty..

With a decided lack of true front-running speed, it seems like most of this is debatable.

Jace's Road is listed as a front-runner yet he decidedly took back behind Kingsbarn in the Louisiana Derby. The only time he set the pace was in a slowly run race.

Forte usually breaks well and settles midfield. He had a terrible post in the FL Derby & was shuffled back on the first turn in the Breeder's Futurity. Don't see him trailing.

Rocket Can has always been in a stalking position early.

Confidence Game actually wired a field that included Rocket Can. He's been forwardly placed all year and was floated out not once but twice while trying to show speed by listed presser Verifying on the first turn in the quickly run Rebel. He also skipped the final round of preps so should be fresh stretching out to 10 furlongs from 8.5f.

Continuar has faced Derma Sotogake three times now; he has in front of DS early in a Japanese race, alongside him in Saudi Arabia, and less than 2 lengths away in Dubai.

Hit Show is never too far away early. However, he was used quite a bit in the Wood from the outside post; the Withers is probably a truer line where he is likely to be just behind the 2nd flight without being completely out of it.

Who knows what to make of Wild On Ice, but the horse was less than 2 lengths away of a :45+ half last time and dueled through a :44 flat half in his 2nd start. In both the 2 races where he failed to establish early position he was bumped at the start.

Mage is another head scratcher. He missed the break in the FL Derby yet ran the race of his life. That off-the-pace style might serve him best at CD as opposed to reverting to a stalking/pressing trip. His turn off foot is a huge weapon in a race like this. Will he have it if he is used early?

Finally, I would guess given Baffert's penchant for stealing big races on the front end, that Reincarnate will attempt to go straight to the front a la Medina Spirit, who reverted back to a front-running style to great--if only short term--effect after a couple of stalking trips in his prep races.

Thx Rollo! Will add the Thoro-Graph opening quarter look and Timeform Pace Projector to get their interpretations too..

Is there anywhere you can access early PPs of likely contenders? I feel like Brisnet used to do this but haven’t seen anything this year.

Thanks!

Wild on Ice ankle injury suffered out of workout Thursday morning gets Skinner into the Derby field..

Hard to know how fast Derma Sotogake is since you don't get any pace figures and I am not particularly good at converting metric, but my question is, in a race which doesn't appear to have a lot of horses that want to set the pace, why would his connections not send him?

https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/st...07910047154176

Wild On Ice euthanized. RIP.

No Preakness for Instant Coffee (MTH ALW), Il Mirocolo (Won Thursday) and Henry Q (Peter Pan)..

Great students of the game we have here with all these trainers who collectively have decided that the Preakness is not a race worth winning.

We are left with another relatively paceless & rag tag field that once again features a dearth of horses coming out of the Kentucky Derby.

Pletcher & Cox didn't think Kingsbarns & Verifying might take a page out of Snow Chief's or Louis Quatorze's rewrites at Pimlico?

Cox didn't think Angel of Empire could emulate the redemption of beaten Derby favorites Prairie Bayou, Timber Country, Point Given or Hansel?

Rivelli didn't think that Two Phil's might get a boost on the more speed friendly confines of Pimlico a la Summer Squall, Tabasco Cat, or Curlin?

Mott & Cox didn't think that Derby pretenders Rocket Can & Hit Show might actually come to hand in Baltimore like Gate Dancer, Tank's Prospect, Risen Star, Oxbow, War of Will, Shackleford, or Pine Bluff?

And where's the imagination of all these international trainers who are willing to throw their impressionable 3yos at the Derby behemoth and expect (or pray) that they can handle all the shipping, quarantines, and hoopla surrounding that race but don't think a second go 'round two weeks later might be on more favorable terms with a race under their belts?

Derma Sotogake wouldn't have a relished an anemic pace scenario at Old Hilltop like he did in Dubai? Aidan O'Brien doesn't have a bunch of floundering Quality Road, Justify, or American Pharaoh colts sitting around at Ballydoyle that might actually wake up on a dirt track?

Well, at least we got Ed Moger, who basically admitted he's only running because he & his owner want to have front row seats to the Preakness party, bringing the winner of the El Camino Real Derby, a race that has produced 6 Preakness winners since the 1980s...

I guess Confidence Game is going to the front?

It’s only a $1.5 million purse that could launch a horse’s stud career (though, not sure what Rombauer is up to these days.)

Scratch that.

PREAKNESS PROBABLES/POSSIBLES

Mage (Delgado/Castellano)
Red Route One (Asmussen/Rosario)
First Mission (Cox/Saez)
Coffeewithchris (Salzman)
National Treasure (Baffert/Velazquez)
Blazing Sevens (C. Brown/I. Ortiz)
Perform (McGaughey/Lynch)
Chase the Chaos (Moger/TBA)

Red Route One might be the speed of this bunch.

Chase the Chaos…you don’t see too many 22 BSF on a form getting up for the win.

First glance at the Preakness field:

Add Forte & Red Route One to Belmont probables/possibles..

National Treasure & Arabian Lion decisions as early as Tuesday..

No Lord Miles, (or other Joseph horses), at Belmont..

Is the Monmouth allowance race Instant Coffee is pointing for in 2023 or 2024? He hasn't worked in 4 weeks...

At any rate, I hope they are at least considering the Belmont for Peter Pan winner Arcangelo. His broodmare sire is Tapit & his 3rd dam is Better Than Honour (dam of 2 Belmont winners)...

6/10 (BEL): BELMONT STAKES

Tapit Trice (Pletcher/Saez)
Forte (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
Kingsbarns (Pletcher)
Prove Worthy (Pletcher)
National Treasure (Baffert)
Reincarnate (Baffert)
Angel of Empire (Cox)
Hit Show (Cox)
Red Route One (Asmussen)
Arcangelo (Antonucci)
Henry Q (O'Neill)
Raise Cain (Colebrook)

So in addition to these HOF trainers who think slapping blinkers on a horse mid-career is some stroke of genius (as opposed to evidence of incompetence...if they are such brilliant horsemen, why wasn't the horse wearing them before?), now we have these first time in the spotlight trainers pretending to be conservative...in the middle of the Triple Crown?

It's like waiting in line for 2 hours at the height of summer in 100-degree weather at Disneyland to ride Space Mountain & then bailing out when the ride operator lifts up the safety bar so you can take your seat...

Anybody think for a second that Two Phil's claiming trainer is a conservative sort? If he wants to turn the horse into Lost Code that's one thing, but that's not what he's doing. It's the classic 'one in the hand is worth less than 2 in the bush' stupidity. He had the Preakness at his mercy, has a style that is conducive to the Belmont even if you think the pedigree isn't there, and he's worried about the Haskell (which let's face it is simply one of two main preps for the Travers)?

The Travers itself is over 2 months after the Belmont. You don't need to skip Triple Crown races because you're worried about having enough time to recover.

Give this guy his Fast Pass to the Tea Cups...

And this guy that trains Mage, suddenly he thinks he needs to give the horse a rest? You've been going full out since late last year, one more hurdle to jump and you're going to opt out? Yeah, you're doing right by the horse. You weren't worried about jumping up from a maiden sprint to a graded two turn race against a champion second time out or making your third start in a premiere Derby prep or running your horse with an untimely cut to the head 2 days before the race. Just hold him down without a sedative (cuz he'll test positive) and staple his open cut shut. Went friggin' Rambo on the horse but, no, that start in the Belmont 3 weeks from now, no that's too much.

Just sit in the shade while the rest of us have fun & you can meet us at It's A Small World.

Where's Chip Woolley when you need him?

Woolley Chuck Norris'd all these genius trainers that think they are entitled to the Triple Crown spotlight year in, year out. Dude wore a giant cast on a broken leg that was gangrenous & still rode a motorcycle across the country to run in all 3 Triple Crown races.

The horse had it easy...

Some of your finest work.

I didn't even think of the no sedative part. But it's all about the horse, ya know?

A vet was willing to do it so there is that.

Two Phil’s officially to the Ohio Derby. Looking to cement that 3-year-old championship.

For curiosity's sake, the only champion 3yo to win the Ohio Derby in 70-odd runnings was Skip Away in 1996.

The hilarious part is Skip Away ran in all 3 Triple Crown races and then ran in the Ohio Derby 15 days after running 2nd in the Belmont.

Even more hilarious is the runner-up to Skip Away at Thistledown was Victory Speech, who wheeled back 13 days later to take the Dwyer at Belmont, then flew across the Rockies to Hollywood Park to win the Swaps 15 days after that, then went back to the east coast for a rematch with Skip Away 14 days later in the Haskell.

Both colts beat older horses in the fall, too.

Rivelli had a chance to potentially win 2 Triple Crown races with this colt (and ran a winning race in the Derby, too). Instant stallion status with a win in any of those.

I'm sure if the horse wins the Ohio Derby but for some reason the horse never wins another race, I'm sure breeders will be salivating at the chance to breed to a Canterbury-Turfway Park-Thistledown stakes horse...

I’m a “more than 3 trainers are capable of training a good horse” guy but when these other guys get a good one it’d be nice to see them act like it.

The Ohio Derby?