I agree with this Cajun. Most of these horses are going to be exhausted going to furlongs anyway. I remember when people thought Alex couldnt get 10 furlongs.

Alex had strong damsire breeding to get a distance. He wasn't any surprise to the people who noticed that.

Yeah, at that price, I have a lot of questions about him.

There are a lot of reasons to bet against him for sure. I still don't know what tickets I will play and whether I'll play against him totally or include him. He won't be my top choice.

One of the big questions is how well Bernardini will handle the crowd. He looked pretty flighty before and after the Travers. Large crowd, full field, he might have issues that we'll see in the paddock/post parade.

I was just messing with you. He's not my pick in the BCC at all. Nice colt, for sure, but he's just as guilty as Invasor and Lava Man for running against weak fields. I think a 14 horse field will be a wake up call in itself for him.

Slot dirt: It is clear you are new to thoroughbred handicapping. Not taking breeding into account is like buying stock in a company without looking at their financial records. A case in point earlier this thread with INTERCONTINENTAL people said she could not get the distance, but anyone with a modicum of breeding knowledge could find that her full sister Banks Hill won the 2001 breeders cup. Intercontinental paid $32 and won for fun.

Both are by the great Danehill out of the Juddmonte blue hen Hasili, as are European highweight Dansili and multiple Grade I winner Heat Haze. Look around for similar breeding for this years cup, and thank me later!

Cajungator: Riddle me this Why do you think Sun King is proven at ten furlongs? when he has tried the distance five times and been blown away all five!

Hey Todko: Premium Tap's center of distribution is remarkable. I knew he was inbred to Stage Door Johnny and took it no further. He may get beat but it will not be the trip that does it. If he gets thru at Turfway, he spreads that field and is third or fourth choice for the classic. I like Dynagold today, his form is somewhat hidden and Willie fits. Good cappin. BBB

If you continuously use breeding as your measurement, you're going to get beat. Plenty of horses are actually bred to go 10 furlongs, but does that mean that ALL of them do?

Yes, there are plenty well bred slugs, but they can get 10f, just very slowly...

You know what I meant... :p

All horses can run 10 furlongs, it's just a matter of how far behind they're going to finish! LOL :D

The funny thing is somebody I can't remember who, came on here extolling the horse racing knowledge BBB has, I thought wow, great addition, then the breeding nonsense comes out and I think next....

Um, I'd guess the best handicappers out there barely use breeding, if at all, unless it's in maiden racing.

I'd like Sun King in the Classic if they ran the 10f around 1-turn!

I look at breeding but I look at so many other things as well. Breeding is only part of the equation when handicapping older horses. Now breeding plays the majority in looking at 2 year olds. But if you are looking at breeding when handicapping the Classic then you are on the wrong path. We have all seen these horses race numerous times of the past two years. We all should be well informed on what they can and cannot do by now. When handicapping the Classic, I will be looking for works, how the horses looks after a work, how does the horse look in general, does the horse seem to like the track, how is he eating, how is he cooling out..........all these things are much more important to me than breeding.

Ditto on that, Euro...

I also look for the horse with something "red" in their name and gold in their silks. :eek: :D HAHA!

That was funny and it took me a moment to figure out what the heck you were saying. That fortune teller was pretty cool. I hope she is there next Derby as well.

At the top levels of the sport, a handicapper not taking breeding into account is like; a person going into a restaurant and ordering pot luck... your going to eat a bunch of lousy meals.

Cajun: Your statement that Sun King is proven at ten furlongs indicates that you have not seen his past performances or cannot correctly interpret them. BBB

BBB:

The fact that Sun King has not won at 10 furlongs does not tell me that he isn't capable of winning at 10 furlongs.

And not a single person said that they don't take breeding into account while handicapping. It's just not used as the only angle and horses that have been around for a couple of years are looked at differently than those who are just starting. ;)

With the Breeders Cup Classic, if you are using breeding as a factor to determine the winner, you're going to struggle. I'd much rather use my own two eyes to take a look at 14 horses we've all seen run many times to figure out what horses have the best chance to win. Breeding absolutely does not come into play at this level of racing.

I asked yesterday: name the five races (actually four, but we'll say five for arguments sake) at 10f in which Sun King was a participant? Derby, Preakness, Classic, Gold Cup are three. Did he run in another 10f race this season that I am missing? He ran decently as a three year old in both the Gold Cup last year and the Classic before his connections figured out he wasn't at his best on the pace.

No one is igoring breeding, we are saying that breeding is a component when capping older horses.

Now I am not sure why you dont think Sun King can get the distance. He only raced twice at that distance after the Derby 1 year ago. Once in JCGC where he finished 3rd to Borrego and that horse simply drew off. However, Sun King was clear by 5 lengths finishing 3rd. In the Classic he stunk it up but he was facing older horses and a couple of good ones even though I didnt think the field was all that well. But since, the horse has matured and has run some nice races. He was closing nicely in his last three starts and if you look at his fractions he is getting faster as the race goes on. Sometimes that is an indication of a horse that is capable of going longer. In handicapping you have to look at the hidden vairables and be able to make sense of them. Closing at 1 mile or 1 1/16 miles does not equal being able to get 10f. But it also doesnt say the horse cant. A clear third by 5 against older horses for the first time and a dismal peformance in the Classic doesnt mean he cant get 10f. I think he will run a good race and this field is suspect and why not him.

Slot I know you know this but the Preakness is at 1 3/16 not 1 1/4.

Interesting quote from Albertrani in the Blood-Horse:

"Lava Man certainly has the credentials," Albertrani said. "We haven't faced a horse like him yet. And Sun King would be the other horse I'm looking at."

- Where's the love for Invasor? :cool:

Yes, but the original post included the Preakness as one of the 10f races Sun King has run. It's a sixteenth short of 10 furlongs, but for argument purposes, I'm fine grouping this into the other three 10f efforts Sun King has had.

And I think he's only tried 10 furlongs three times, 3:0-0-1 if I'm not mistaken. I don't think that says anything about the horse's ability to run well next Saturday.

I agree with that.

good luck chatting with BBB. i mentioned other horses who were supposedly limited at going a distance according to some posters, yet showed they COULD indeed do so--which he interpreted as me saying I thought they were limited--when in fact i was using them as examples to show that not all horses who are perceived as being limited (such as sun king)are actually unable to get a distance of ground. now of course when i mentioned GZ and intercontinental, they had never run at their bc distances, so it was a 50/50 shot for those who said they couldn't do it--yet they showed quite easily that they could.
now sun king is a different case, as he has run at the 10f distance previously. of course he's shown some ability--such as his narrow loss to invasor...

Good for you Euro: But first let me post that I fancy Sun King as a fabulous racehorse, and my post, was merely expressing that there are two sides to every coin. He somewhat resembles the "wiseguy" horse this year. Many 'cappers, this forum, are "keying" him and I think he has some very large obstacles. For instance;

1) He has tried this trip, about a mile and a quarter, five times. From the half mile pole home, in his closing finishes, Sun King, has lost; 8 lengths,6 lengths, 6, 8, and 9 lengths.

2) Sun King will not have raced in NINE weeks.

3) Sun King will pick up NINE pounds off his last.

4) Sun King has not won A Grade I. Of his two Grade II triumphs, one was in Pennsylvania and the other was in the Commonwealth @ Keeneland when the field STRUGGLED to get their last 3/8's in some :40 seconds. The average winning Beyer for that race is 108; Sun King's Beyer of 98 would not have put him anywhere close in the 20 previous runnings.

Ceejay and Sightseek excellent input.

As for Intercontinental's wire job which was a major score for many in our circle, Brisnet.com bet a $49,000 pick six ticket and did NOT include her! BBB

One of my handicapping associates drilled Intercontinental big time last year. I didn't question the horse's ability to get the distance -- the breeding spoke volumes about distance (as was later proven in the actual race). However, I was overly negative about the Bailey to Bejarano move on turf. To me, Jerry Bailey is perhaps the best turf jockey America has ever produced. One of the few who could turf with the Euro jocks. Bejarano, to this day nearly a year later, isn't the turf jock that he is on dirt. To me, Bailey to Bejarano on turf was a huge downgrade (not so on dirt however).

I missed a huge price that day and was stunned like most 'cappers.

After the race, when I asked my handicapping associate why she chose Intercontinental, she said, "Bejarano has an uncanny ability to get horses to relax -- he sits well". She had a sharp eye that day and from being associated with the Kentucky circuit her judgement was sound on Bejarano and the call.

She made a nice chunk of change and I was glad for her.

Nice work BBB. I really appreciate the analysis.

I like Sun King but I agree that he has proven that 10 furlongs is beyond his scope. The hype surrounding this horse for this race i wont understand other than the fact that it is a New York based Zito horse and like all the other ones, they seem to be overhyped from the start. I am glad the hype will possess people to bet on entries with little to no chance. Sentimental favorites like Perfect Drift and Sun King always helps the other prices.

As for Premium Tap, I dont like his chances at all either. I am willing to throw out the last race but its the other races that i have trouble with. The woodward was won on a speed favoring track against some pretty suspect horses. In the race before, the whitney, he was destroyed by Invasor. He just doesnt seem like a top class horse especially looking at his lack of success in even winning allowance races of which he was 1-4 this year.

Let me ask you guys who are doubting Sun King: first, name the five races where he's attempted 10 furlongs? I only count three.

Second, has Sun King tried 10 furlongs in his four year old season? Lots of horses have run up the track at longer distances as three year olds, yet came back to run brilliantly at 10f as older horses. Pleasantly Perfect comes to mind. Conversely, there are many horses who show promise at a distance as sophomores, yet don't run a lick as an older horse. Flower Alley immediately comes to mind.

I'd love to hear answers to those two questions.

I think hes healthy now though Da Hoss.
Pletcher was furious with the committee's decision to make him an also eligible and if he were only running the horse on the owners say so, I doubt he would have been that furious.
His last work was also reported to be excellent, as in super.

My point is that I don't think a few races against some very tough competition as a 3YO really proves a thing when it comes to the form of an older horse in November of their 4YO season. My second point is that 3YO form doesn't always translate into form as an older horse. Maybe Pleasantly Perfect is a bad example, but there are still a gaggle of horses out there who stink up the joint at a distance as a 3YO, yet run their eyeballs out at the same distance once they've matured.

When Todd got furious did it occur to him that it was impossible for Flower Alley to be excluded from the race?

Or perhaps he couldn't believe the committee actually excluded the least deserving entrant in the race. Who, pray tell, does he think Flower Alley should have received preference over?

Super Frolic?

Dalakhani: I would not be too critical of Premium Tap's Whitney debacle as he missed several workouts due to bad track conditions.

Slot: Pleasantly Perfect is by Pleasant Colony out of an Affirmed mare, a stout ten furlong pedigree. Sun King is genetically challenged at ten panels as his past performances point out. Two races were at one mile and three sixteenths, and lumped into the five. BBB

Super Frolic for one.

Horses in bad form who have won grade ones and raced at that highest level should always be preferred over horses who NEVER have.
I don't think I'm alone in saying that it isn't rocket science that in a grade one race that horses who have ACTUALLY won grade ones should get iin before those who never have.

Suave is a joke as well. Hes never won a grade one either, and his form doesn't exactly look like he belongs in here.

Super Frolic has had a MUCH better year than Flower Alley.

Suave had a better year, as unbelievable as it seems, than Flower Alley but he is probably the fairest argument for exclusion.

Regardless, I am surprised Todd made an issue of this at all, as it doesn't seem like him especially when you consider the horse really wasn't being excluded....and Todd is easily smart enough to know that.

I'm not going to continue arguing with someone who thinks having Clever Trick as a broodmare sire is going to be a detriment to a horse trying to run 10 furlongs for the first time in over a year next Saturday. That is just downright preposterous.