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Bogs??
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So what do we think of today's 2nd race?
PPs: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...re_summary.htm (under Chief Seattle's progeny) 2nd (5:55) 1 Mile (All Weather Track) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Claiming ($25,000 - $22,500) | Purse: $27,000 Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML L D's Galaxy SCRATCHED 1 1 Monstrip Arterburn B Arterburn Lonnie 115 $25,000 L 6-1 2 2 Suz Slew Pino M G Romans Dale 115 $25,000 L 4-1 3 3 Classic City Diva Spieth S Faulkner Rodney C 115 $25,000 L 5-1 4 4 The Lady Waffles Gonzalez L A Feliciano Miguel A 115 $25,000 L 8-1 5 5 Borobeta Centeno D E Ness Jamie 113 $22,500 L 3-1 6 6 Sweet Ginger Brown Vega H Scherer Merrill R 115 $25,000 L 12-1 7 7 Dress in Dubai Goodwin C A Trivigno Michael 115 $25,000 L 12-1 8 8 Native Miz Rodriguez E D Deegan Joseph C 115 $25,000 L 10-1 9 9 Premier Roma Allen R D Jr Bennett Gerald S 115 $25,000 L 8-1 10 10 Rivie Martinez W Lauer Michael E 115 $25,000 L 10-1 |
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The 1 and 5 both have very good route speed and are synthetic lovers. The one horse is 5-for-14 lifetime at PID - with wins at 17/1 and 16/1 and several ITM finishes at fat prices. The five horse has been in the exacta 13 out of 16 times at PID .. with 6 wins - including wins at 12/1, and 7/1. Her last two figures easily exceed avg winner par for class level. The 7 on the other hand, is a certified synthetic hater - and her trainer is 1-for-47 here .. with almost his entire stable running well below form at this track. To me, the 7 horse impacts the race by making things a lot tougher for the 1 and 5. Even though the bias is to inside-speed - in races where the pace has been extremely contested - the winner has typically been a horse drawn inside, who is able to save ground early, and only comes off the inside to pass tiring duelers. That's why I picked the 2 horse to win this race in the paper. |
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If he changes posts and trips with the second place finisher - the second place finisher murders him. |
R3 was a pretty nice one. . .
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You're talking about a 100 day race meet - where both post 1 and post 2 are looking like virtual locks to show a flat bet profit for the entire meet - in all races - no matter what happens the rest of the way. The rider of the 5 in the last race should be shot. About 3 different times today that a pacesetter was taken well off the rail - and an eventual winner came scooting up the inside of the pacesetter. |
How have you been capitalizing, DrugS? I've been trying to find the horse who I think will get the lead and just betting that one to win for the most part. I'm up, but the lack of a good wagering menu is killing me.
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I'm obviously doing well because of the track - both in the paper and through betting. But I never end up catching these insane mega longshots like the one who won the last race. * Last time out - the horse breaks from post 11 in an 11 horse field * Two starts back - it breaks from post 9 in a 9 horse field * Three starts back - it breaks from post 5 in a 6 horse field going 2 turns So ... in it's last 3 races ... it's been drawn inside of a grand total of one horse .. and now it gets post 2 and it's 34/1 against dogsh!t. The problem is that I can't bring myself to even stab at those kind of horses when they suck bulls - and this one didn't even have any speed and was cutting back to 5fs. The jockey on the 5 horse got loose - but like a typical 8-for-233 jockey would - he kept the horse well off the rail the whole way while setting the pace. I have a good idea which jockeys are idiots and which ones aren't .. but sometimes you hope and they always fail you. |
The head on is up. Here's how brilliant this ride was.
Here's the pan: ![]() The 5 is loose on the lead in a 5 furlong sprint - basically a sure sign of victory if you're on the rail .. the 2 is in the white cap in second place saving ground. Here's the head-on: ![]() He's out in the four path like an imbecile. You could drive a semi inside of him. |
It seems like Ms Moscow (10/1 ML) might be live in the 6th tomorrow at 8.5f.
Decent speed, favorable post, non-terrible jock, and although the one AW start wasn't overly impressive it came in her debut last year against the bias going 8f at PID. Throw in the fact that the probable favorites are either parked way outside or are trying poly for the first time, and she might be worth a play. I might play WP and box her with the rail horse if the price is right. |
Did you notice that the #4 & #6 won every race but two today?? The other two were won by the #2 horse.
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The saddle #'s have little to do with anything because of entries and scratches and such. |
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I wish I knew who might get an easy lead in the first tomorrow. There's no speed at all in that race ... and if something gets loose - they are a near cinch to either win at a price or run 2nd to Musical Mix. If Musical Mix doesn't win the first race tomorrow - she'll never win a race. She's been victimized by draws repeatedly - and she finally gets one to go her way. |
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Paul |
Presque Isle Downs update so far tonight:
Race 1: Wire-to-wire winner pays $17.40 Race 2: Wire-to-wire winner pays $20.20 Race 3: Wire-to-wire winner (breaking from Post #2) pays $72.60 to win and wins by 6.5 lengths. Race 4: Wire-to-wire winner pays $4.60 Yeah, inside-speed was off to a good start. |
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A Mike Maker trainer horse off of a 3 wide off-the-pace trip paid $45 to win the 9th at Saratoga yesterday - a turf sprint. From that same race - Goldzar had a 3 wide trip pressing the pace and he came back and won his next start by over 3 lengths at 6/1 odds. Amazingly, that race was won by a rally wide horse named Rockin Rockstar who won the 100K Tom Ridge Stakes earlier in the meet at PID in his only other start. I was telling a few guys this morning that Rockin Rockstar should be voted horse of the meet regardless of what happens in the Masters ... all I got was either "They have a vote for horse of the meet here?" or "who's Rockin Rockstar? ... is that the horse ...." |
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The winner of the 6th race just went wire-to-wire and won easily despite lugging sharply into the rail in the stretch. Paid $19.40 to win. I had the trifecta in this race picked cold in the paper - it paid $240.40 and the winner was listed as my best play of the day. Yay me. |
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