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The Indomitable DrugS 08-02-2010 10:13 AM

Even though Kissin Kris ran a fast figure in victory in the Haskell and was 3rd in the BC Classic later in the year ... I would certainly take Lookin At Lucky over him.

Even though Bluegrass Cat won the Haskell by 7 lengths and ran a slightly faster fig than LAL - I'd take LAL.

The rest of your list I agree with back to Technology and Lost Mountain - I'd need to review them.

parsixfarms 08-02-2010 10:17 AM

In light of how easily he won yesterday (and with Drosselmeyer out and Super Saver's Derby looking more like a mud/Churchill-influenced fluke), Lookin at Lucky has a huge leg up on championship honors now. I'd be really surprised if he ended up running in the Travers.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-02-2010 10:22 AM

He could lose the Travers and he'd still have a leg up.

It's a very important 3yo race - and it's getting to the time of year when those 3yo opportunities start to vanish.

MaTH716 08-02-2010 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms (Post 677102)
In light of how easily he won yesterday (and with Drosselmeyer out and Super Saver's Derby looking more like a mud/Churchill-influenced fluke), Lookin at Lucky has a huge leg up on championship honors now. I'd be really surprised if he ended up running in the Travers.

I totally disagree. He seems to be much the best as far as the 3 year olds go. So why not run in and dominate races like the Haskell and Travers? I don't think people are benching horses because they might already have Eclipse Awards locked up. Some owners actually like running their horses in different races/spots (especially if they are much the best) as opposed to trying to run out the clock for the end of the year awards.

parsixfarms 08-02-2010 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 677109)
I totally disagree. He seems to be much the best as far as the 3 year olds go. So why not run in and dominate races like the Haskell and Travers? I don't think people are benching horses because they might already have Eclipse Awards locked up. Some owners actually like running their horses in different races/spots (especially if they are much the best) as opposed to trying to run out the clock for the end of the year awards.

I'm not suggesting that I think he should bypass the Travers; I was just stating that I think he will bypass the Travers. He's a California-based horse, and given the weakness of the divisions out west, he could still run in races like the Pacific Classic and Goodwood before the Breeders' Cup without "running out the clock."

MaTH716 08-02-2010 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms (Post 677112)
I'm not suggesting that I think he should bypass the Travers; I was just stating that I think he will bypass the Travers. He's a California-based horse, and given the weakness of the divisions out west, he could still run in races like the Pacific Classic and Goodwood before the Breeders' Cup without "running out the clock."

Baffert mentioned several times how he thought the LAL was a better "dirt" horse. Also how Baffert prefers a track with a real dirt surface. So I actually think he will be staying East. Whether or not he runs in the Travers is still up in the air. I personally think he will.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-02-2010 10:51 AM

What in the hell was Bravo doing on Afleet Again? Obviously he would say he was riding to win with no regard to where he might finish .. but if he doesn't make an insanely pre-mature move that forces him 6 wide the entire way around the far turn .. he's 2nd in the Haskell and picks up 200K.

The great figure maker 'PG wanted to give a very poorly ridden Afleet Again a 105 Beyer and the so-so 4yo Omniescent a 115.



Amazing that he was in front of a promising sprinter like Trappe Shot on the turn.

RockHardTen1985 08-02-2010 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 677117)
What in the hell was Bravo doing on Afleet Again? Obviously he would say he was riding to win with no regard to where he might finish .. but if he doesn't make an insanely pre-mature move that forces him 6 wide the entire way around the far turn .. he's 2nd in the Haskell and picks up 200K.

The great figure maker 'PG wanted to give a very poorly ridden Afleet Again a 105 Beyer and the so-so 4yo Omniescent a 115.



Amazing that he was in front of a promising sprinter like Trappe Shot on the turn.



First off, I said 110-115. Leaning towards 110. Second I asked you to join the team and help.

MaTH716 08-02-2010 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 677128)
First off, I said 110-115. Leaning towards 110. Second I asked you to join the team and help.

What's this team that you are always talkin about and who's already on it?

Sightseek 08-02-2010 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 677131)
What's this team that you are always talkin about and who's already on it?

It's the Opus Dei of handicappers.

RockHardTen1985 08-02-2010 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 677133)
It's the Opus Dei of handicappers.


:)

Indian Charlie 08-02-2010 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 677133)
It's the Wopus Dei of handicappers.

FTFY

Sightseek 08-02-2010 12:11 PM

So now we know the LOCKS to win a race almost a month from now and three months from now, how about talking about the big race that is actually taking place this week?

RockHardTen1985 08-02-2010 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 677170)
So now we know the LOCKS to win a race almost a month from now and three months from now, how about talking about the big race that is actually taking place this week?

Nicole, I will talk any race with you... What race do you want to talk about?

Sightseek 08-02-2010 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 677173)
Nicole, I will talk any race with you... What race do you want to talk about?

The Whitney!

RockHardTen1985 08-02-2010 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 677176)
The Whitney!


Nothing to talk about, you know that. QR cant lose. I dont know how you bet, but if KMac runs that Redding horse I would think tossing Blame for second is the way to make money. Blame is ok, but slow. Hes just slow, and maybe someone can outrun him and make a $20 plus exacta, rather then the $8 QR-Blame will pay.

Sightseek 08-02-2010 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 677180)
Nothing to talk about, you know that. QR cant lose. I dont know how you bet, but if KMac runs that Redding horse I would think tossing Blame for second is the way to make money. Blame is ok, but slow. Hes just slow, and maybe someone can outrun him and make a $20 plus exacta, rather then the $8 QR-Blame will pay.

I can really see Kiaran saying something like "it's too much to ask of his horse at this time" and point for the Woodward. Dutrow has already ducked. It's too bad Lukas got Mine That Bird and not a good horse since he doesn't duck.

RockHardTen1985 08-02-2010 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716 (Post 677115)
Baffert mentioned several times how he thought the LAL was a better "dirt" horse. Also how Baffert prefers a track with a real dirt surface. So I actually think he will be staying East. Whether or not he runs in the Travers is still up in the air. I personally think he will.

If Bob skips the Travers, I will be really upset with him and I will have to voice my opinion on FB to him.

parsixfarms 08-02-2010 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek (Post 677187)
I can really see Kiaran saying something like "it's too much to ask of his horse at this time" and point for the Woodward. Dutrow has already ducked. It's too bad Lukas got Mine That Bird and not a good horse since he doesn't duck.

I'm not sure where that gets him, as the Woodward is likely to come up a tougher race than the Whitney if Dutrow runs Rail Trip there. This weekend, Pletcher intimated that Quality Road would go Whitney-Woodward, and then skip the JCGC to have a sixty-day break heading into the Breeders' Cup.

Port Conway Lane 08-02-2010 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski (Post 677093)
No, my critical ranking was not based solely on the Beyer numbers assigned. Let's look at this critically- of the 3yo restricted races, the Haskell would rank 4th behind the Derby, Preakness, and Travers for races "I want to win" (given that the Belmont has become somewhat irrelevant in a non-TC year). It's a serious and important race in the landscape of 3yo racing and a race I happen to love. They draw really good/great fields and important horses, benchmark types. I looked at each of the horses and said "do I want them or LaL in a matchup?"

Rachel Alexandra- RA
Big Brown- BB
Any Given Saturday- AGS
Bluegrass Cat- BC
Roman Ruler- tossup LAL
Lion Heart- LH
Peace Rules- PR
War Emblem- WE Tossup
Point Given- PG
Dixie Union- DU LAL
Menifee- Menifee LAL
Coronado's Quest- CQ
Touch Gold- TG
Skip Away- SA
Serena's Song- SS
Holy Bull- HB
Kissin Kris- KK LAL
Technology- tossup LAL
Lost Mountain- tossup LAL
Restless Con- LaL
King Glorious- KG
Forty Niner- FN
Bet Twice- BT

So I came up with 3 tossups, 1 yes, and 19 no's. I'd like to know where you disagree with my assessment (if any.) It's an interesting comparison if nothing else.

Up to and including the Haskell the ones in bold would differ from your list.

Coach Pants 08-02-2010 04:11 PM

I stopped reading after the first 20 posts.

Dude.

AeWingnut 08-02-2010 04:58 PM

why is anyone excited about a 3-5 shot winning a race?

RockHardTen1985 08-02-2010 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeWingnut (Post 677403)
why is anyone excited about a 3-5 shot winning a race?

Is it all about betting? I would enjoy horse racing even if I did not/could not bet for a while or at all anymore.

herkhorse 08-02-2010 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 677424)
Is it all about betting? I would enjoy horse racing even if I did not/could not bet for a while or at all anymore.

post of the year

The Indomitable DrugS 08-02-2010 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane (Post 677363)
Up to and including the Haskell the ones in bold would differ from your list.

Better than Menifee and Dixie Union? You must be a huge fan of horses who consistantly beat absolutely garbage fields in time no faster than freaking Omniescent.

War Emblem never finished 2nd or 3rd - he'd stop on a dime or run a hole in the wind .. the kind of horse you always play against underneath in exotics if you don't like him .. but he'd breeze in-hand against LAL.

Menifee was just plain better than LAL. He actually faced real horses and ran several better races.

Dixie Union would beat the ever loving piss out of LAL. Dixie Union was an awesome horse who would be hailed as a super horse in this crop. He beat both Caller One and Swept Overboard twice sprinting. When he won the Haskell - the very good Captain Steve was 2nd, future two-time Santa Anita Handicap winner Milwaukee Brew was 3rd and More Than Ready was 4th. The start before the Haskell he was beaten just a neck by Tiznow and had to give Tiznow 11lbs. He had a 112 Beyer sprinting and a 111 Beyer at 9fs and he faced absolutely amazing competition.

Roman Ruler was nothing special - and I rated him a toss-up with LAL - but he was a very good 2yo sprinter and he beat an ok horse in Flower Alley in the Dwyer and was a good 2nd to the older Rock Hard Ten in the final start of his career.

Here's who finished 2nd to LAL in his Grade 1 wins. Make Music For Me (1-for-10 lifetime), Pulsion (1-for-9 lifetime - most recently 5th in an N1X) Noble's Promise (winless in his last 6 starts) First Dude (1-for-9 lifetime) and Trappe Shot (tough trip horse finally making his graded stakes debut)

The Indomitable DrugS 08-02-2010 06:11 PM

* LAL



* MENIFEE



* WAR EMBLEM



* ROMAN RULER


RockHardTen1985 08-02-2010 06:24 PM

So its all about beyers right? L@L was won 5 G1's second by a head in another and won 2 G2's. Champion 2yr old, but these other horses are faster and better, because the beyers are higher? THanks for clearing it up DOug.

ateamstupid 08-02-2010 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 677444)
So its all about beyers right? L@L was won 5 G1's second by a head in another and won 2 G2's. Champion 2yr old, but these other horses are faster and better, because the beyers are higher? THanks for clearing it up DOug.

By your logic, Lookin at Lucky blows Quality Road off the track. It's all about Grade I's and Eclipses, right?

The Indomitable DrugS 08-02-2010 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 677444)
So its all about beyers right? L@L was won 5 G1's second by a head in another and won 2 G2's. Champion 2yr old, but these other horses are faster and better, because the beyers are higher? THanks for clearing it up DOug.

You're so clueless and incompetent it's amusing.

How do you think Dixie Union would do against Make Music For Me, Pulsion, Trappe Shot, Noble's Promise, and First Dude?

He might do to those horses what Rachel Alexandra did to Malibu Prayer and Gabby's Golden Girl last year ... the only difference is that the horses LAL grinds down in his big wins have absolutely no Graded Stakes luck - and horses like Malibu Prayer, Gabby's Golden Girl, and Flashing are all Gr 1 winners.

RockHardTen1985 08-02-2010 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 677455)
You're so clueless and incompetent it's amusing.

How do you think Dixie Union would do against Make Music For Me, Pulsion, Trappe Shot, Noble's Promise, and First Dude?

He might do to those horses what Rachel Alexandra did to Malibu Prayer and Gabby's Golden Girl last year ... the only difference is that the horses LAL grinds down in his big wins have absolutely no Graded Stakes luck - and horses like Malibu Prayer, Gabby's Golden Girl, and Flashing are all Gr 1 winners.


Its not that simple.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-02-2010 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 (Post 677457)
Its not that simple.

Yeah .. Lookin At Lucky is a 2yo champion after all!!

Look for the first two horses who finished 2nd to him in his Grade 1 wins to appear for a 20K claiming tag sometime in the future.




RockHardTen1985 08-02-2010 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS (Post 677458)
Yeah .. Lookin At Lucky is a 2yo champion after all!!

Look for the first two horses who finished 2nd to him in his Grade 1 wins to appear for a 20K claiming tag sometime in the future.






Ok Doug.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-02-2010 06:57 PM

Latigo Shore sure flattered Trappe Shot and Nacho Friend today.

randallscott35 08-02-2010 06:58 PM

Pulsion is due.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-02-2010 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35 (Post 677461)
Pulsion is due.

I love Make Music For Me's form .. he was 6th at 2/5 odds in a MSW race sandwhiched right in between three straight very competitive finishes in Grade 1 company.

It would be lovely if Pulsion, Make Music For Me, and First Dude all met in an N1X allowance race .. First Dude would take them apart.

tiggerv 08-02-2010 07:03 PM

Pennsylvania Derby?

http://www.drf.com/news/lookin-lucky-headed-home

Coach Pants 08-02-2010 07:09 PM

An ideal bridge between the Haskell and Breeders Cup Classic?

FFS, Privman.

Coach Pants 08-02-2010 07:25 PM

There would be multiple orgasms going on in this thread if LAL equaled Menifee's Haskell.

rpncaine 08-02-2010 07:31 PM

F***in' Awesome Avatar!

Coach Pants 08-02-2010 07:43 PM

It is.

If Philadelphia Park had any sense they would fly him up there for Pennsylvania Derby day.

It already has over 3.5 million views on Youtube.


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