Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   Crist on the Farcical World Cup (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=35198)

freddymo 03-28-2010 05:00 PM

I am just surprised Gitano Hernando didn't confirm Abrams thoughts that he was a synth. freak?

Bigsmc 03-28-2010 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tector
I am very happy that Dubai Inc. went to plastic, because I don't want top American horses going there.

Now if we can go back to dirt for the BC, it will be perfect.

:tro: :tro:

I enjoyed watching yesterday. I did dip my toe into the waters, but it wasn't as much as I would normally put into the early Daily Double, so I could care less what nonsensical results were produced. Next year, I'll keep all of my money in my pocket, but I will watch. Nothing to get lathered up over. It's an event and I'll treat it as such.

_ed_ 03-28-2010 06:36 PM

It wasn't just on the synthetic track that we saw illogical results. Honestly, did anyone expect Al Shemali to win the Duty Free? He was at 89-1 here. It happens.

clyde 03-28-2010 07:59 PM

Of course his first name isn't Jesus---it's Steven H.




Thought that was pretty well known,but oh well.

ninetoone 03-28-2010 08:37 PM

I think the pace made the race in the Classic. Modest fractions. A faster pace up front would have equaled a Gio Ponti win, and this thread & Crist's article would have never happenned. It was more about the pace than the surface.

letswastemoney 03-28-2010 08:53 PM

I think it would make things more exciting if they eliminated the turf race, so that every turf star like Dar Re Mi and so on could compete in the $10 million race instead.

chucklestheclown 03-28-2010 11:49 PM

Isn't this a lot like baseball writers carping on the Super Bowl? Contrary to what I may have led others to believe, I read the drf quite frequently. Crist should concentrate on running the dam thing and let the experts handle the racing.

tector 03-28-2010 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown
Isn't this a lot like baseball writers carping on the Super Bowl? Contrary to what I may have led others to believe, I read the drf quite frequently. Crist should concentrate on running the dam thing and let the experts handle the racing.

These would be the same experts who have run the game into the ground?

chucklestheclown 03-29-2010 12:09 AM

No. You are referring to (I think) people who talk about stuff they focus on one board meeting a quarter. When I say "experts" I am talking about people who have expertise on a subject, such as MyMissStormCat visavis Dubai and International Racing in general. Just the laughable difference in odds between the U.S. and Britain yesterday should be enough to satisfy even a casual observer that the U.S. doesn't understand overseas racing, or even cares to.

tector 03-29-2010 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown
No. You are referring to (I think) people who talk about stuff they focus on one board meeting a quarter. When I say "experts" I am talking about people who have expertise on a subject, such as MyMissStormCat visavis Dubai and International Racing in general. Just the laughable difference in odds between the U.S. and Britain yesterday should be enough to satisfy even a casual observer that the U.S. doesn't understand overseas racing, or even cares to.

I know I don't care to.

Bigsmc 03-29-2010 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown
No. You are referring to (I think) people who talk about stuff they focus on one board meeting a quarter. When I say "experts" I am talking about people who have expertise on a subject, such as MyMissStormCat visavis Dubai and International Racing in general. Just the laughable difference in odds between the U.S. and Britain yesterday should be enough to satisfy even a casual observer that the U.S. doesn't understand overseas racing, or even cares to.

If you find the odds differences "laughable", I hope you took advantage of them. It's not as if the UK slayed them. They only had one winner pay under $15.

Two of the seven race winners (Calming Influence and Kinsale King) had lower odds in the US than in Britain. The unofficial numbers I have:

Joy and Fun 12-1 UK/ 18-1 US
Calming Influence 14-1 UK/ 13-1 US
Musir 1.375-1 UK/ 1.7-1 US
Kinsale King 7-1 UK/ 4.5-1 US
Al Shemali 40-1 UK/ 145-1 US
Dar Re Mi 9-1 UK/ 12-1 US
Gloria 16-1 UK/ 25-1 US

johnny pinwheel 03-29-2010 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer
I have great respect for Mr. Christ but I think he is way off base here. I am no fan of synthetic surfaces and if I had my way they would all be gone. But, I made good money on the world cup races without throwing darts at a board. Anyone reading Pat Cummings excellent work all week would have had to taken a hard look at the World Cup winner. Pat all week long wrote about how Gloria was a stand out in his works and on apprerance. Then factor in that he figured to be lone speed in the race and the fact that he has run well in this race before and it is hard to say he is impossible. The winner of the prior race ran third in the Breeder's Cup turf last November (in fact I used her that day) and has beaten the boys before in group races in Europe. Again, it hardly took a dart to land on her.

A $5 double on these two races returned $1557.

The 99-1 upset that came in the race prior was a turf race. I agree that one was tough to come up with but it wasn't a synthetic surface which produced that crazy result.

Again, I agree with the main argument that it would be better to go back to dirt and turf only. However, I think using the world cup results to make that case is a real reach.

Paul

dar re mi the winner of the turf classic was a definite overlay and not that hard to get. it was a turf race though. the next race was for 10 mil and the favorite was coming out of a 61k race. the second choice was a turf horse and the winner was a bum(really thats sour grapes). i had two doubles going but could not come up with the winner. one of mine was red desire who had just beat all of the top three at the distance and track last out. for 10 mil they should be attracting horses like vodka, quality road and zenyatta. instead its a pack of pigs. the synthetic is not to blame but it sure does not help. they could of kept the purses the same because that amount of money for horses like this is the farcicle part of this equation. the breeders cup does not shell out this kind of money and the quality is tons better. it used to be the oppisite way around. i think the sheiks crapped on their own parade.

pweizer 03-29-2010 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel
dar re mi the winner of the turf classic was a definite overlay and not that hard to get. it was a turf race though. the next race was for 10 mil and the favorite was coming out of a 61k race. the second choice was a turf horse and the winner was a bum. i had two doubles going but could not come up with the winner. one of mine was red desire who had just beat all of the top three at the distance and track last out. for 10 mil they should be attracting horses like vodka, quality road and zenyatta. instead its a pack of pigs. the synthetic is not to blame but it sure does not help. they could of kept the purses the same because that amount of money for horses like this is the farcicle part of this equation. the breeders cup does not shell out this kind of money and the quality is tons better. it used to be the oppisite way around. i think the sheiks crapped on their own parade.


We certainly can't make the argument that Zenyatta skipped the race because of the surface. Quality Road also went to Santa Anita for the Breeder's Cup on synthetic (although refused to load). From an American perspective, as Steve pointed out earlier, the timing is tough to get our best horses. This is true at least if they want to have a full campaign. How many of our great horses went over there, won the big race, and were never the same? It is a tough trip.

Paul

blackthroatedwind 03-29-2010 12:17 PM

If it was a dirt race it's hard to believe Quality Road wouldn't have been there. All they would have sacrificed was the Met Mile....and as glad as I am that he's running at Belmont.....I think they would have made that swap.

Linny 03-29-2010 12:24 PM

No matter the outcome, from top to bottom the DWC had a better lineup this year than last and apart from Curlin a better lineup than 2 years ago. I follow international racing closely and apart from the US horses there were 7 G1 winners. Gloria has run in the Carnival the last 3 or 4 years and won one of the local preps for this race. He won the G1 Singapore Cup last year. Alybar has clearly moved up his game since going to Tapeta, but then again Cigar wasn't "Cigar" until he got to dirt. Red Desire was a G1 winner in Japan who was third to their 2x HOY in the $5.4m Japan Cup last fall and had woon a Tapeta prep locally.
The fact that the US horses didn't get the big money is no excuse for trashing the race. Who the heck did Curlin beat when we were gloating about the best horse in the world?

As for the timing, to the Aussies, it's late summer, so it's like the end of the Saratoga or Del Mar meetings yet they still show up. In Hong Kong and Japan and Singapore, they are on northern time and their seasons are just picking up.

As for the horses involved being oldsters of little value, Gloria is 6 in his native Brazil. Allybar is 4 and Lizard's Desire is 4 in his native South Africa. Maybe if the US based trainers could figure out how to keep a horse around that long, some of them might develop a following, like HK's Good Baba who won the HK Mile for the 3rd time last fall at age 7. He's 16 for 39 and he's a KY bred. Many of those trainers with long lasting horses train on synthetics.

I love the irony of people complaining about the DWC siphoning off too many good American horses then complaining that running it on Tapeta makes it phony. You should be happy, maybe no Americans will bother. If you don't follow or care about interational racing, then why even look at or read about the DWC races?

Coach Pants 03-29-2010 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny

I love the irony of people complaining about the DWC siphoning off too many good American horses then complaining that running it on Tapeta makes it phony. You should be happy, maybe no Americans will bother. If you don't follow or care about interational racing, then why even look at or read about the DWC races?

Yes why be inquisitive. Shame on you people!! Now excuse me...I gotta go put this drool hanging from my mouth in the sink.

freddymo 03-29-2010 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny
No matter the outcome, from top to bottom the DWC had a better lineup this year than last and apart from Curlin a better lineup than 2 years ago. I follow international racing closely and apart from the US horses there were 7 G1 winners. Gloria has run in the Carnival the last 3 or 4 years and won one of the local preps for this race. He won the G1 Singapore Cup last year. Alybar has clearly moved up his game since going to Tapeta, but then again Cigar wasn't "Cigar" until he got to dirt. Red Desire was a G1 winner in Japan who was third to their 2x HOY in the $5.4m Japan Cup last fall and had woon a Tapeta prep locally.
The fact that the US horses didn't get the big money is no excuse for trashing the race. Who the heck did Curlin beat when we were gloating about the best horse in the world?

As for the timing, to the Aussies, it's late summer, so it's like the end of the Saratoga or Del Mar meetings yet they still show up. In Hong Kong and Japan and Singapore, they are on northern time and their seasons are just picking up.

As for the horses involved being oldsters of little value, Gloria is 6 in his native Brazil. Allybar is 4 and Lizard's Desire is 4 in his native South Africa. Maybe if the US based trainers could figure out how to keep a horse around that long, some of them might develop a following, like HK's Good Baba who won the HK Mile for the 3rd time last fall at age 7. He's 16 for 39 and he's a KY bred. Many of those trainers with long lasting horses train on synthetics.

I love the irony of people complaining about the DWC siphoning off too many good American horses then complaining that running it on Tapeta makes it phony. You should be happy, maybe no Americans will bother. If you don't follow or care about interational racing, then why even look at or read about the DWC races?

Linny would the 6mil dollar winner be favorite in a overstakes this summer at 1 3/16ths at Monmouth Park? Get a grip these horses are basically 100k claimers MAYBE

Lovely Laurel 03-29-2010 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Linny would the 6mil dollar winner be favorite in a overstakes this summer at 1 3/16ths at Monmouth Park? Get a grip these horses are basically 100k claimers MAYBE

After digesting this thread for a day, there are several conclusions:

The group of horses in the DWC were not the best, but certainly not shabby.

There are many bettors with sour grapes. Especially those who publicly post their plays. Not saying my plays were any better. I didn't win.

Huge payouts in large races are not so unusual. '99, '02, '05, '09 Derby. Countless BC races.

freddymo 03-29-2010 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lovely Laurel
After digesting this thread for a day, there are several conclusions:

The group of horses in the DWC were not the best, but certainly not shabby.

There are many bettors with sour grapes. Especially those who publicly post their plays. Not saying my plays were any better. I didn't win.

Huge payouts in large races are not so unusual. '99, '02, '05, '09 Derby. Countless BC races.

Well if any of the Godolphin private purchased hadn't been Black Holed it could have been a luck better!

Linny 03-29-2010 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo
Linny would the 6mil dollar winner be favorite in a overstakes this summer at 1 3/16ths at Monmouth Park? Get a grip these horses are basically 100k claimers MAYBE

So our reigning Champion Older Male, a major G1 stakes winner and the winner of the Goodwood just got their butts spanked by a bunch of $100k claimers?

If that is the level of the field of the DWC, why didn't a bunch of folks with $100k claimers and listed horses make the trip?

freddymo 03-29-2010 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny
So our reigning Champion Older Male, a major G1 stakes winner and the winner of the Goodwood just got their butts spanked by a bunch of $100k claimers?

If that is the level of the field of the DWC, why didn't a bunch of folks with $100k claimers and listed horses make the trip?

Exactly both shipped in for the race Gio Pionti was hardly in form and Richards Kid is a complete bum that might be competitive in 50k claimers on dirt

Linny 03-29-2010 02:15 PM

But the race wasn't on dirt. It was on his preferred surface. Had the pace been better Gio Ponti probably would have been in with a shot but the pace was slow and the horse and rider with experience over the track took the edge. All the US riders(except Gomez on Kinsale King) seemed to think that speed can't hold on Tapeta and they were wrong.

brockguy 03-29-2010 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
If you find the odds differences "laughable", I hope you took advantage of them. It's not as if the UK slayed them. They only had one winner pay under $15.

Two of the seven race winners (Calming Influence and Kinsale King) had lower odds in the US than in Britain. The unofficial numbers I have:

Joy and Fun 12-1 UK/ 18-1 US 12.61-1 Betfair
Calming Influence 14-1 UK/ 13-1 US 20.43-1 Betfair
Musir 1.375-1 UK/ 1.7-1 US 1.67-1 Betfair
Kinsale King 7-1 UK/ 4.5-1 US 8.31-1 Betfair
Al Shemali 40-1 UK/ 145-1 US 204.49-1 Betfair
Dar Re Mi 9-1 UK/ 12-1 US 9.11-1 Betfair
Gloria 16-1 UK/ 25-1 US 25.27-1 Betfair

Spot on Bigs - Ive added Betfair Starting prices at the end for comparison

the_fat_man 03-29-2010 03:01 PM

I realize that this is a world class operation and all but are there any results charts for these races anywhere? I'm on the website and what I've found so far is very basic results information.

blackthroatedwind 03-29-2010 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
I realize that this is a world class operation and all but are there any results charts for these races anywhere? I'm on the website and what I've found so far is very basic results information.


Why would we need charts.....we got such a great bird's eye view of the first four or five horses for the entire race that such superfluous things as charts are unnecessary.

PatCummings 03-30-2010 10:37 AM

Finally getting re-settled back from Dubai. Needless to say, it won't take me five months to get back into form - that too is a myth.

Anyway...

All expected commentary from the usual suspects here, so I'm not all that surprised. It is what it is - you either like it and embrace it for what it is or complain. I spent Sunday arguing back and forth with an Australian journalist who said the DWC wasn't "proper racing."

C'mon people - what is? Define it. An American's perspective is different than X or Y or Z. Just on and on and on. Complain or enjoy...it's what we do. You either have a rosy outlook on racing or a dour one. I enjoy being at Saratoga in the summer, or Meydan, or Manor Downs outside Austin where I will be calling the races on Saturday. People need to get over themselves and their ideal opinion of what is and is not good racing.

I didn't pick Gloria De Campeao first, had him second. But it doesn't excuse the fact that I thought the result of the World Cup was incredibly logical, and if I hadn't been in the walking ring lapping up the scene, I would have been salivating over the fact that three horses who had wins over the course were 25-1, 40-1, and 35-1 respectively.

The joke of it all is that people who bet the Dubai World Cup card do so, almost uniform, ONLY on that day, and pay no attention to the rest of the Carnival. That is a TON of uninformed money in the pool...I might have been better financially staying home and just plugging away. I think people are frustrated that they bet and lose when betting the form they know and losing to the form they don't understand...

I won't sit here and explain Al Shemali winning the Duty Free - but you can't say that there isn't a host of information I've put out there that doesn't give you a better handle to have thought these horses had a chance to win. I thought Allybar, Gloria De Campeao, and Lizard's Desire were all viable win candidates. Not redboarding here, just restating what was in plain English on my website.

Coach Pants 03-30-2010 11:41 AM

How did the chat go?

blackthroatedwind 03-30-2010 01:39 PM

And I thought I was a shill.

PatCummings 03-30-2010 05:33 PM

Oh, it's shilly.

It isn't dirt, American racing, it isn't turf racing - as always, it is what it is. People don't like it when what they see doesn't fit into their preconceived notion of what is or is not ______ (good, bad, competitive, lackluster, etc)

And no one will ever assemble the field of all fields that will be the best in horse racing, someone will be missing somewhere. And just because there is a $10 million purse for the big one doesn't indicate it is the best race ever...

So Sheikh Mo says it is the best ever - what else do we expect from him? He's trying to market his own product.

The result on Saturday was absolutely the best thing he could have expected...when it comes down to it...he wants top horses to run in the Carnival and make the racing there as good as possible, which will therefore prop up the Dubai World Cup to an even stronger status.

Why not run for minimum purses of $110,000 while prepping for a $10 million race.

The schedule isn't perfect - nothing is...timing will always be off for some.

When the great American horses, previous winners of the race, were victorious, it was almost always a two or three horse race with bunch of nameless plodders filling the field. $10 million and the Tapeta is different. There were 11 G1 winners in this year's edition, and not surprisingly, those acclimated to race day conditions did the best.

If anything, I think the 2010 Dubai World Cup has provided a great blueprint for those who would like to have some success in future years. If American horsemen chose to engage, great...if not, their loss...because someone will pick up the slack.

the_fat_man 03-30-2010 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatCummings

If anything, I think the 2010 Dubai World Cup has provided a great blueprint for those who would like to have some success in future years. If American horsemen chose to engage, great...if not, their loss...because someone will pick up the slack.

Unlike some of the others here, I IGNORED the event. A 'great blueprint', IMO, would, at least, include some results files. Let me get this straight, they have all this money over there YET they can't hire someone to do FULL (and ACCURATE) results charts? How the **** do they expect anyone with a brain to bet those horses: BEYERS figures? :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

I mean, no matter how you cut it, this is still a 3rd world operation. Maybe the Sheik can get his lazy ass over to the Hong Kong Jockey Club site and see what a PROFESSIONAL, CUTTING EDGE operation looks like.

PatCummings 03-30-2010 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Unlike some of the others here, I IGNORED the event. A 'great blueprint', IMO, would, at least, include some results files. Let me get this straight, they have all this money over there YET they can't hire someone to do FULL (and ACCURATE) results charts? How the **** do they expect anyone with a brain to bet those horses: BEYERS figures? :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

I mean, no matter how you cut it, this is still a 3rd world operation. Maybe the Sheik can get his lazy ass over to the Hong Kong Jockey Club site and see what a PROFESSIONAL, CUTTING EDGE operation looks like.

Results are posted on EmiratesRacing.com, with race comments on each horse and the stewards' report. They do have the most complete Trakus system I've seen, and have implemented it on course, but seem to have some difficulty with getting that data on their website - I attribute some of this to growing pains (i.e, getting the course up and running was first and foremost).

The in-race running lines don't exist, but neither do the European racing jurisdictions provide those either...of course, with no wagering in Dubai, the impetus to get that all up and running is limited.

RockHardTen1985 03-30-2010 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatCummings
Results are posted on EmiratesRacing.com, with race comments on each horse and the stewards' report. They do have the most complete Trakus system I've seen, and have implemented it on course, but seem to have some difficulty with getting that data on their website - I attribute some of this to growing pains (i.e, getting the course up and running was first and foremost).

The in-race running lines don't exist, but neither do the European racing jurisdictions provide those either...of course, with no wagering in Dubai, the impetus to get that all up and running is limited.

I was looking for results myself, Thanks for the website.

the_fat_man 03-30-2010 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatCummings
Results are posted on EmiratesRacing.com, with race comments on each horse and the stewards' report. They do have the most complete Trakus system I've seen, and have implemented it on course, but seem to have some difficulty with getting that data on their website - I attribute some of this to growing pains (i.e, getting the course up and running was first and foremost).

The in-race running lines don't exist, but neither do the European racing jurisdictions provide those either...of course, with no wagering in Dubai, the impetus to get that all up and running is limited.

There you go: they might have the 'most complete Trakus system' but until they get the data out there it really does no one any good. They have a chance to do things the right way, as, clearly, money is of no object. IMO, this entails making ACCURATE data available to the bettor. Can you imagine a system in place with accurate running lines? How about one with a line for every 1/16th of a mile (or less)? How beatable does the game then become?

Maybe next year. In the meantime, WO is opening later in the week and we can at least get our accuracy fix satisfied there.

MisterB 03-31-2010 06:06 AM

I see Nick Kling has spoken. Seems he feels Joe Hirsh would not have agreed with Christ blog.

http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2...b854309848.txt

Linny 03-31-2010 08:22 AM

Since there is no betting in Dubai, there has long been a bit of a struggle between the management of the Carnival / DWC and the people involved in running the overseas betting and distribution systems.

It is a non US venue. If you decided to bet on Royal Ascot or Hong Kong you would have to deal with their versions of PP's and data. If it doesn't suit you, fine, don't play. Millions of punters in Europe, Asia and Australia do just fine with the type of data provided by the Dubai Racing Club. The handle on the DWC card was quite strong int hose locales, so someone must think they have adequate data.

the_fat_man 03-31-2010 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny
Since there is no betting in Dubai, there has long been a bit of a struggle between the management of the Carnival / DWC and the people involved in running the overseas betting and distribution systems.

It is a non US venue. If you decided to bet on Royal Ascot or Hong Kong you would have to deal with their versions of PP's and data. If it doesn't suit you, fine, don't play. Millions of punters in Europe, Asia and Australia do just fine with the type of data provided by the Dubai Racing Club. The handle on the DWC card was quite strong int hose locales, so someone must think they have adequate data.

The data SUCKS and just because they got some play is no indication that it doesn't. I don't play. I don't feel the need to throw my money away when there are plenty of other, better options. They (and you) can dress it up all they want, it's still a 3rd world product. Let those who need the action deal with it.

chucklestheclown 04-02-2010 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man (Post 630973)
The data SUCKS and just because they got some play is no indication that it doesn't. I don't play. I don't feel the need to throw my money away when there are plenty of other, better options. They (and you) can dress it up all they want, it's still a 3rd world product. Let those who need the action deal with it.

Wahwahwah


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:00 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.