i know great horses, bernardini isn't there yet. maybe some day he will be. he's got the talent, he seems to have what it takes.

i'll reserve judgement on 'greatness' til after he's met older at the very least.

i gotta give props to the bernardini fans. after his overwhelming win in the dandy, you'd expect to see a lot of hype. but bluegrass cat won his haskell by the widest margin ever--but for a change not too many people went with the latest star and have stuck to their guns.

but i think i'll go with the pletcher trainee over the albertrani, esp considering it's at saratoga.

but believe me, i won't be disappointed in whoever is the winner.

That is what I mean...some people don't think that he has the talent. As long as he stays healthy, this horse will go down in history as being one of the best we've ever seen.

I love it when you talk dirty.

Seriously, though, my brother started to major in physics, but realized it wasn't the physics he loved; it was the math, so he does love the heavy stuff (he finally majored in statistics). I actually loved calculus, especially... story problems. Really.

What if neither one wins? What about Bright One?

Cajun I was informed by fellow board members that he is not running. I thought he was going because Dale said he really wanted to run there one morning last week. He apparently has some mucus.

bright one is out. sick, heading maybe for the super derby. that leaves high cotton and maybe a ward horse as the early speed. ward has two going, ministers bid and dr pleasure.

i'm witholding judgement on whether he's one of the best ever. he hasn't done enough yet to know. he COULD be. he MAY be. ask me next year, or the year after!

Yeah, sorry...

I just saw that too. I'm trying to catch up on all these posts. That's a disappointment to me. I like this colt (even though he may have been over his head in the Travers.)

Well now, that would make too much sense. LMAO

I think Bernardini definitely has the talent, but the greatest ever? Please...

I only have one question with him, and that will be answered when he has a gutcheck.
Hes never had to fight in the lane. Hes been clear and running at his own leisure. Until his last start he also always bore in in the lane. He works alone, and with no company. Ragozins guys did an extensive study years ago regarding horses figures and easy wins. I was listening to an audio cassette(remember those?) back in 1992 put out by those guys as I drove to the Belmont Stakes to watch Ap Indy. The guy on the tape talked about this and I thank God I was listening to it because its made me a hell of a lot of money and dispelled a notion that I had that I see that many people still cling to. That notion is the idea that a horse who wins easily with a big fig could go even faster if pushed harder. I'm sure TG and Jerry Brown have done a study(those guys study EVERYTHING!) but I haven't read or heard theirs so I am using ragozin as a basis. They said on the tape that their studies showed that horses always ran their best lifetime figs in easy wins. That the notion that if pushed and ridden harder that they would be faster in the next race was completely false. I've been using that theory successfully for 14 years now.
I guess the explanation has been described as that when a horse is under no pressure from either horses or stress, that he can run free and efficiently doling out his energy as he WANTS to use it. Kinda like if you or I went for a two mile run and went at our own pace as far as what felt good to us to do. If pushed harder and being forced to use our own energy in a manner that wasnt the way we felt best doing it we wouldnt go as fast.
Its not Bern's fault that so far hes been clear, thats because of his immense talent. But I really think too much is being made of him being clear by many in a surface he relished and beating Hemingway's Key and Minister.
The Preakness set up for him when Bro Derek was hurt at the gate, Barb broke down, and SNS didn't run his race(hasnt run since then) and weaved down the lane.
The test he will get from Bluegrass Cat is sure to be his sternest yet as at some point Blue Cat will challenge him. The old time trainers I know always said you couldnt beat a horse like Bern from in front of him, because he will make that move and crush your spirit. The old timers I know always said you had to get one like this from BEHIND and make him run in the lane with someone actually laying on him because then the gut check takes place.
I think it Bluegrass cat can look him in the eyeball in the lane then he can beat him, because we still don't know how Bern will respond if looked in the eye.

Who has bluegrasscat ever looked in the eye and subsequently prevailed? It seems to me that every time that BGC has had a gutcheck, he has failed. Am I wrong here?

The point wasn't about Bluegrass Cat. At least Bluegrass Cat has actually had a gutcheck. Bernardini hasn't and that's what Mike was saying. IF he can handle running next to someone in the lane, then he wins for fun, but whose to say he can handle running next to someone down the stretch?

I understand your point. But my point is...what kind of "gutcheck" will it be against a horse that has proven every time that he folds in such situations?

I agree with you that in about 99% of the cases a horse that won big couldn't have gone much faster if pushed through the wire. The Dandy though is one of the 1% of races where the horse really was geared down and could have gone faster. He didn't just finish that race under a hand ride. He finished it while the jockey was fighting to pull him back and slow him down. Now the real question is if he had run 4 lengths faster would the Beyer have come in any higher or would they have just changed the variant so that he ran the same figure. So there may be a fundamental difference in whether a horse could have gone faster if pushed through the wire and whether they would have got a higher figure, especially when dealing with single race variants.

While those two are gutchecking themselves on down the lane, it sets the race up perfectly for Ministers Bid. :D

I would love to see that sister! I bet him in his maiden at keeneland at 9-1 and i have been in love ever since. And im sure i'll bet on him again this weekend because im a glutton.

You have good taste in horses!!!

AT least someone gets the point of it. Dalakhani never gets points because he too busy just trying to shoot people down rather than EVER add something of interest of a ticket that people can make money on.
Bluegrass Cat was a mediocre horse until his last race, I think I described him as such right here many times. I've never been a big Bluegrass Cat fan or supporter.
Thats why when i saw the Haskell I just couldnt believe what I was seeing, I really couldnt. That was a completely different animal mentally then the one I saw before. I was wondering if they made a mistake and mixed up the halters in the Whitney the day before and ran FA in the Haskell.
The horse had never shown good speed before and had not been so settled and controllable. He had always run in spots before, not always mentally focused on his race at all times. He always had to be ridden very hard to get postion or run down the lane.
In the Haskell he was keen early, settled exactly when asked afterhe got position, and then responded under no urging to enagage the leader and when set down in the lane switched leads on cue and took off like a jet plane. That was a breakthrough race for him and I think that the lightbulb finally went on over his head. He gets it now, and certainly acted like a horse who not only enjoyed what he was doing but knew what he was supposed to do as well.
His workout the other day was anxiously awaited by everyone to see if the lightbulb had indeed stayed on or if it was perhaps a fluke. The clocker/extrainer I sat next to turned to me after the workout and said "Son, did you see that?! Lemme tell you what son, that was the work of the MEET and I seen em all!!!!". I think hes mentally awoken and perhaps had much more talent than I ever gave him credit for. Quite frankly I thought he always got too much hype because of his trainer and the fact that he was by Storm Cat. This is a dynamic game, and we are allowed to change our opinions based on what we see develop. I think he can win this Saturday.

If you have worked with the horse or are some way connected I can understand a extreme expression of one's involvement. It's ok to be alittle Crazy. I just wanted to know , if you were connected I would go lightly with any smack about your horse. That's all.

I'm figuring that the reason High Cotton was sent to this race instead of running for easy money in the WV etc is to give Bernardini a 'gut check'. I respect Bluegrass Cat and think he will never live down being beat by Deputy Glitters and only getting second in the Derby and Belmont, but regardless I think he is still a step below Bernardini. Perhaps Pletcher is looking for a way to 'even things out' for his horse.

I think he's got a ton of talent as well. The Dandy was his first race around two turns and I don't think he did that bad at all. I was impressed considering his lack of starts. I'll be pulling for him to win this weekend. (I think I'm going to put a few bucks on him to win for ****s and grins.) :)

...oh please don't encourage her, she'll start spouting off that Innkeeper was Secretariat's best colt.....


:p :p :p

Mike, I'm going to take your word on BG's work because I didn't see it myself. Question though... what were your thoughts on the Haskell while BC was in the paddock and post parade? I thought for sure he was going to blow it because he was so washed, but he proved me wrong. Do you think the fact that he was as washed as he was will have any affect on the Travers?

I love Innkeeper. :p And he IS the most gorgeous and conformed colt that Secretariat sired, so there. :p

Pletcher says he is one of few horses that you want to bet with both fists if he is on his toes and "washed" up. Before the Bluegrass he was as calm as can be and we all know how he ran that day.

Damn, that would have been nice to know on Haskell day. LOL :D

Hes a Storm Cat with that hot blood. I guess I don't know how to gauge him based on that. I do know that Saratoga is his home and that walking over fro Todd's barn at Oklahoma will be lots easier than it was to ship to Monmouth. Todd's awesome about paddock schooling as well and I expect to see him at least once this week in the paddock, maybe twice. Todd leaves nothing to chance. Like all great profesionals he addresses every detail and tries to make much of his own luck.

So how many Pletcher Boobleheads did you spin for anyway?!?! :D

(I'm only joking, but you've got some goo-goo fest going over him)

I didnt take any.
I admire Todd because hes only one year older than I am and what he has accomplished is incredible. I also like trainers that try very hard at all times and that you can count on as having done their very best with a horse to get it to win.

he was even worse in the Derby post parade.

It may have helped if had watched him in the post parade. He screwed up my tri. (Well, I screwed up my tri, but whatever.) I had Barbaro to win, Steppy to place and Showing Up to SHOW UP. :D

Yes, I remember that very well because I couldn't believe that the horse ran so well.

Someone also said he wasn't washed out at Keeneland? All the horses were washed out on Bluegrass day because I remember it being incredibly hot. Most even had sweat dripping off of them. I really don't think BCG took to the track that day.

where he beat everyone except barbaro!!

also, to those who think/have posted that bernardini wins 'for fun' or 'by open lengths' against older, please keep in mind that secretariat, felt by many to be the best of the entire 20th century, went 1 for 3 against older. it's not that easy. a good four year old beats a good three year old. it remains to be seen what bernardini can accomplish against more mature colts.

and as for his jim dandy showing what he can do....two words--bellamy road. and if you're reply to that is but look what bernardini did in the preakness, that race fell apart. and again, look at bellamy roads last before the wood. his average margin of victory before faltering in the derby was over 16 lengths. and that's just one example. there are PLENTY more. please don't call him great until he finally shows he is. and if you think i'm too hard on him, who i enjoy like hell seeing race, he's been nothing short of amazing so far, just remember that i never bestowed the term 'great' on ghostzapper! take a lot of heat for that, but the guy didn't run enough. great should only be given to those who show they truly are. give bernardini time. please enjoy him, i do...but wait a while to call him great. he won't mind.

I agree, Danzig.

i'm not exactly sure why a post presenting a point different to your own would be viewed by you as an attack....and my question was one i truly wanted answered. it wasn't posted by me in a sarcastic tone, i was curious. sorry that you take things this way...

oops, I did not mean that YOU would attack me, Danzig. There was nothing wrong with your post. I apologize, I wasn't clear. I meant that if I tried to explain my position, I would be attacked by other posters (someone just above called me either crazy or Bernardini's owner) for being so in love with this horse that my viewpoint couldn't possibly be valid. I debated whether or not to answer your question, but since I knew you wouldn't get on my case, I answered it. Sorry for being so unclear!

I read an article today where they interviewed Ward about the Travers. He's hoping that BGC and Bernardini get caught up in a speed duel and one of his horses can pick up the pieces. . .

I'm sorry, but this theory doesn't make any sense. The Travers will be run THIS WEEKEND. Chances are, Albertrani will still be in a slump then. What does it matter if he won at a 20% clip a few months ago? This month, at this meet, he is ice cold.

I just think of it like fantasy baseball. If Jeter, for example, cools down for a while and isn't hitting with the same average that he has been all season, I'll sit him. I don't care if he's been hitting .340 up until now, if he's hitting .250 in August, he's on the bench with all the other cold players. But if A-Rod starts heating up, I don't care is his average has been in the mid-2's all season, he's hitting well now and that's what matters. Races don't take place over the course of the year, they take place over the course of a few minutes. And in those few minutes, Albertrani will still be cold.

The original argument wasn't about whether he is cold right now. Oracle's original argument was that the fact that Albertrani is not doing well at Saratoga proves that he's not a good trainer. My point was that his record for the year is more indicative of his abilty than his record for the month.

O sorry. . . I thought it had more to do with the Travers and that Mike was saying that since Albertrani's cold and Pletcher's hot (as always), his horse might have a better shot this weekend. Guess I should've read a little closer. . .

I think what Mike was saying was that it isnt a bad time to take a shot against a very heavy favorite in Bernardini, who is trained by a guy who has only won 1 race this whole meet, a walkover which shouldnt even count as a win. Considering his opposition comes into this off a thrashing of a pretty good Haskell field trained by a guy who doesnt know what a slump is.
Thats all. In my opinion BGC will be overbet this weekend.