well I'm talking about a subtle little move in the begining and a move on the 2nd turn, and it admittedly wasn't the most grueling tough trip you'll ever see.

here's a decent replay of it if you want to see the time frame i am mentioning
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RjzNixub5g
you probably already saw this - just to clarify what made me upgrade his Sham slightly

didn't break all that great
(10s - 20seconds) Gomez wanted to see if he could maybe get the lead but then conceded the lead and was unwilling to ask for more horse.

that little bit of a early move also hung him a little wider than needed going into the 1st turn (0:33seconds) in the dreaded 4path (again subtle)

he tries to settle into a relaxed cruise several times on the backstretch but mostly unsuccesful, smart bid kind of slides up and Gomez doesn't want Take the Points too far off of The Pamplemousse

(1:28-142) Gomez gets into Take The Points and makes a real run at Pamplemousse. But he loses stride a little at about 1:42 while Pamplemousse kicks away. This could take a lot out of a chasing horse, but he does an OK job of holding off the admittedly weak competition.



Hes not invincible and I am actually considering playing against if he is to be bet down a whole lot. I would have preferred Lime Rickey be a low favorite and play agianst him and use TTP instead. I like Battle of Hastings and Take The Points as my top two. A couple other longshots are interesting here as well. I figure Take the Points will either settle with the group in good position and cruise around and make 1 closing run at the wire , OR he might just dissapear. I think his runnning style will be a little different from the sustained chaser/grinder he is on dirt.

This has been bugging me since I saw the entries, is Desourmeaux in for the day to ride Indescribable? I don't see see why he would fly in to take the mount on Al Khali. Unless he's seen him work on grass recently...

Kent has ridden Indescribable in her last 5 starts, so it's probably safe to assume that that's why he's down there.

Indescribable has to be the reason he's there.

I guess you can say I am fishing for value here, I respect Pletcher and his placement of horses and this one's placement is abit intriguing, though with his form it would be a leap to back him unless he's outrageously forgotten.

Don't the horse's performances in his last two starts sort of undermine any reasoning that points to Pletcher's spotting of horses?

I know what you are saying, it's just peculiar that if they wanted a wakeup race with the surface change, they didn't choose an Allw race but chose a 500K race to do it in. It's an aggressive spot for this horse, unless he's insurance for the race if it comes off of the turf, If we go 3 back, his first race was actually OK...Panty Raid was a horse that had reportedly worked well before that big race out west yrs ago when she tried turf the 1st time, though Panty Raid was a good horse her pedigree wasn't overly turf heavy and remembering & wondering why Pletch had chosen that race for her, she won nevertheless, however the only way someone would have taken a stand with her that day is if they knew how she worked on grass prior to that race.

it reminds me a little of Court Vision from last year, did he have any turf starts going into colonial, i can't remember

-bt-

He didn't but he also got drubbed in the Turf Cup before a good Va Derby.

All I know of Al Khali is that he's a very slow horse.

NT

yea , and even his allowance win was IIRC a lucky win where Atomic Rain? wierdly quit on the turn and Al Khali inherited the lead/win.


However Medaglio D'oro is a popular sire at this time and it makes sense for his owners to take some shots with him. He has some decent works on both turf and Keeneland. I don't like him here at all but I can see them trying to get some value out of this seemingly mediocre animal.

I don't suppose anyone on this board has seen him work on turf? He shows 3 turf works since the Peter Pan, is it possible Pletcher saw something he liked?

It's also possible that this is a last-ditch effort with a horse who has allowance conditions that aren't available to straight 3's.

A very astute poster put up Pletcher's stat regarding horses trying turf for the first time in graded stakes earlier in the thread.

NT

IF that forecast is correct for saturday, it will be NASTY, even in the shade. we were at the 2006 Va. Derby (Go Between-winner) on a day like that. it was fun day and colonial puts on a good show but it was HOT.

Granted 1-13(7.7%) is a small sample, yeah I admit this is abit of a fishing expedition looking for value where there may not be any, however I would look at him if he was atleast 15-1 and over. None of these bowl me over that you have to atleast try to find some value here.

Todd is a "classic American trainer" in that he is very "dirt centric." Panty Raid notwithstanding, his moes to turf (or debuting onturf) usually mean he doesn't think he has a serious dirt stakes horse. Once the triple crown is past, it's open season. Still, when I see him go "first turf" with a horse that was on the Derby Trail I see him as fishing for something the horse can do well.
I don't think Take the Points is a "no-hoper." If he wins or runs well I wont be shocked, but I don't think he's a strong win candidate. Unless Al Khali is a different animal on turf I can't see him as a strong contender. I'd rather look for a lightly raced horse with grass breeding and minimal PP's and a bigger price because he never ran against 'Mousse et al.

You think Panty Raid could run a step on dirt? Has Phil got to you already? She was a terrible dirt horse that lucked into a typically bad Black Eyed Susan.

PR was a modest, possibly G3 class filly that got lucky with the situation and ran the biggest race of her life in the most important race of her life.
As stated, I tend to think of Todd on turf as more an act of desperation than planning.

Take the Points not only failed to flatter himself, but Choclate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff did a number on that reputation as well.

I don't see how Take the Points offers any sort of value at anything less than 8-1, if that.

I'm probably the only person who loves this kind of weather. :o

40% chance of afternoon thundershowers now - I hope it doesn't hit like last year!

Am I the only one that loves Tejada at 12-1?

Miguel?

It's a good thing there were 14 entered in the turf sprint because there are nine scratches.

NT

I guess Castellano likes Criticism's chances more than Lime Rickey's, on paper he's the most likely winner abit surprising he's not making the trip when this race is twice the money.

I wouldn't read into that very much. He has three graded stakes wins on Criticism this year and an allowance win on Lime Rickey. He also needs to maintain his relationship with Darley/Godolphin, especially after the piss poor rides he gave Music Note and Tam Lin last weekend.

NT

Leparioux is probably an upgrade anyway, especially on turf. That race (Bel)turned up pretty competitive.

This is a relatively unexplored but potentially incredibly fruitful approach to handicapping: rather than focusing on what the horse is capable of doing, focus on what the jockey agent/jockey are up to--- but not when it comes to the ride. More often than not, you'll find that your typical jockey agent/ jock is over educated, in most cases holding degrees from top 5 universities. Anyone doubting this need only watch a race and note the incredibly precise decision making by the jocks. :rolleyes:

That's amazing.

And Criticism is no lock at Belmont, if it stays on turf there are some attractive choices to choose from and I am not including Dynaforce as one of them, I think you have to think these 2 are going to be well bet but aren't cinches by any means. Dogwood owned horses never elicit confidence in big money races to me. I'm going to one or both of Pletcher's depending on value and handicap that 1-13 stat is due for a 2-15 update after this race. I'll definitely put a few on Al Khali, his turf works timewise are comparable to TTP's and one work better, though admittidly an educated best guess.

Horrible ride by Lopez!! Should have never given the rail to Al Khali.

I thought the tri payout came back a little light.

I thought I was watching the PBR at the top of the stretch.

I don't have a good camera for distances, but this is the view from the Turf Club -


http://i135.photobucket.com/albums/q...stingswins.jpg

Kitty Cat Express is GIANT!

http://i135.photobucket.com/albums/q...k/BIGfilly.jpg

Interesting how they allow photogs actually on the turf course instead of just outside the rail.

i was on the finish line, and the 4 was def. getting there, pretty impressive effort coming off a nx1 state bred

-bt-