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-   -   6/6 (BEL): Belmont; Manhattan; Acorn; Just a Game; Et Al.. (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30063)

Bobby Fischer 06-04-2009 11:04 AM

this sucks,
the government just bought out Zambezi Sun for $12 billion

miraja2 06-04-2009 11:13 AM

Miner's Escape looks like a horse to me that has the running style and the pedigree that might allow him to steal the race, or at least hold on for a minor share. He definitely seems to be a different and improving horse after being stretched out.
But, do you guys think Da Tara's performance last year will turn Miner's Escape from a possible overlay into an underlay because a lot of people will love the Zito/LaPenta longshot angle?

Gander 06-04-2009 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Miner's Escape looks like a horse to me that has the running style and the pedigree that might allow him to steal the race, or at least hold on for a minor share. He definitely seems to be a different and improving horse after being stretched out.
But, do you guys think Da Tara's performance last year will turn Miner's Escape from a possible overlay into an underlay because a lot of people will love the Zito/LaPenta longshot angle?

No, I think you will get your price on Miners Escape, for no other reason because the Big 3 will be taking down the majority of all win bets.

I think he'll be every bit of 30/1.

the_fat_man 06-04-2009 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215
That's false.

NT

That's true. ALL the DIRT races are boring.

blackthroatedwind 06-04-2009 12:39 PM

Zambezi Sun is scratching. Someone who is actually connected to Bobby Frankel's barn told me......not someone who lies about it on the internet.

chucklestheclown 06-04-2009 12:43 PM

Desert Key or Benny will win the True North.
Forever Together will win the next.
The Stephens is a little harder but whoever wins it won't be a longshot, unless it is my pick, Regal Ransom.
The Acorn is all Dixie.
The Woodford is wide open.
MTB will romp.
That's why I said what I did and I will bet like I mean it.

hockey2315 06-04-2009 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Zambezi Sun is scratching. Someone who is actually connected to Bobby Frankel's barn told me......not someone who lies about it on the internet.

Ugh

hockey2315 06-04-2009 01:23 PM

The morning lines in some of these races seem off to me -

I'd be very surprised if Benny goes off a longer price than Fabulous Strike. FS certainly has a recency edge and his last was very nice, but Benny has had a more accomplished career and any competent person who can read the form realizes that FS is going to get a lot of pressure up front.

I can't believe that This Ones for Phil is the third choice in the Woody Stephens. He's infinitely faster than either entrymate and even more so than Hull. I hope Eric's right, but I'd be kind of shocked to get that price.

I'd take 8-1 on Funny Moon. . .

CSC 06-04-2009 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
The morning lines in some of these races seem off to me -

I'd be very surprised if Benny goes off a longer price than Fabulous Strike. FS certainly has a recency edge and his last was very nice, but Benny has had a more accomplished career and any competent person who can read the form realizes that FS is going to get a lot of pressure up front.

I can't believe that This Ones for Phil is the third choice in the Woody Stephens. He's infinitely faster than either entrymate and even more so than Hull. I hope Eric's right, but I'd be kind of shocked to get that price.

I'd take 8-1 on Funny Moon. . .

This One's for Phil is an interesting horse, in my opinion he is a must include in the pick 3-4.

ateamstupid 06-04-2009 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown
Desert Key or Benny will win the True North.
Forever Together will win the next.
The Stephens is a little harder but whoever wins it won't be a longshot, unless it is my pick, Regal Ransom.
The Acorn is all Dixie.
The Woodford is wide open.
MTB will romp.
That's why I said what I did and I will bet like I mean it.

Regal Ransom a longshot?

Gander 06-04-2009 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
The morning lines in some of these races seem off to me -

I'd be very surprised if Benny goes off a longer price than Fabulous Strike. FS certainly has a recency edge and his last was very nice, but Benny has had a more accomplished career and any competent person who can read the form realizes that FS is going to get a lot of pressure up front.

I can't believe that This Ones for Phil is the third choice in the Woody Stephens. He's infinitely faster than either entrymate and even more so than Hull. I hope Eric's right, but I'd be kind of shocked to get that price.

I'd take 8-1 on Funny Moon. . .

I dont think there is any chance Benny takes more money than Fabulous Strike.

Yes, the ML on Hull was strangely low. Isnt he the poly horse? I like Phil in this spot too. Thinking 5/2 on Phil.

gales0678 06-04-2009 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Zambezi Sun is scratching. Someone who is actually connected to Bobby Frankel's barn told me......not someone who lies about it on the internet.


is dixie not bobby's right hand man?

blackthroatedwind 06-04-2009 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
is dixie not bobby's right hand man?


Do you also believe in elves and fairies?

gales0678 06-04-2009 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Do you also believe in elves and fairies?

i actually think ken lay is still alive too

Sightseek 06-04-2009 02:51 PM

Someone actually asked Frankel if Dixie (by his real name) was really his right hand man. I think we all know the response to the question.

gales0678 06-04-2009 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Someone actually asked Frankel if Dixie (by his real name) was really his right hand man. I think we all know the response to the question.


don't you guys and girls get it , Frankel can't say he knows him , because he takes care of the off the record items , he's the guy at the track that can't be seen or heard but he is there , he might be at the carvel stand this weekend by the paddock

jms62 06-04-2009 02:58 PM

100.00 Cold Exacta Dunkirk/Mine That Bird

SniperSB23 06-04-2009 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
don't you guys and girls get it , Frankel can't say he knows him , because he takes care of the off the record items , he's the guy at the track that can't be seen or heard but he is there , he might be at the carvel stand this weekend by the paddock

Actually Frankel said he knew him, just hadn't seen him in 10 years.

gales0678 06-04-2009 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Actually Frankel said he knew him, just hadn't seen him in 10 years.


well then how did i know the horse was going to scratch out of the manhattan ....

SniperSB23 06-04-2009 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
well then how did i know the horse was going to scratch out of the manhattan ....

Cause Frankel always scratches part of his entry and Champs Elysees was the much more logical horse to run here, especially with the possibility of soft turf.

gales0678 06-04-2009 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Cause Frankel always scratches part of his entry and Champs Elysees was the much more logical horse to run here, especially with the possibility of soft turf.


so when i am wrong i am wrong , but when i get one right it is because i flipped a coin and guessed lucky ???

appearantly not everyone on this board knows bobby does this

Gander 06-04-2009 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Cause Frankel always scratches part of his entry and Champs Elysees was the much more logical horse to run here, especially with the possibility of soft turf.

And the Post Position kind of gave it away too :(

You think he was going to start a horse from post 14 in a race like this?

SniperSB23 06-04-2009 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
so when i am wrong i am wrong , but when i get one right it is because i flipped a coin and guessed lucky ???

You think Frankel was going to scratch a horse that has won two G1s out of a tough G1 race for a horse that is yet to hit the board over here and could find far easier spots to try and get a win? You didn't need to flip a coin to figure out which horse was going to run.

gales0678 06-04-2009 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
And the Post Position kind of gave it away too :(

You think he was going to start a horse from post 14 in a race like this?


still gander the other board had the jump on this scratch becuase of our buddy at the Beverly Hills Hotel

SniperSB23 06-04-2009 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
still gander the other board had the jump on this scratch becuase of our buddy at the Beverly Hills Hotel

Because your buddy at the nursing home has seen enough Frankel entries to use common sense as to which horse would be scratched and then announces the common sense scratch as if he has insider knowledge.

gales0678 06-04-2009 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Because your buddy at the nursing home has seen enough Frankel entries to use common sense as to which horse would be scratched and then announces the common sense scratch as if he has insider knowledge.

scott you outa be nice , when you go to LA you can stay at the suite too , Paris Hilton , Tori Spelling .... all the blonds will be poolside for you

SniperSB23 06-04-2009 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
scott you outa be nice , when you go to LA you can stay at the suite too , Paris Hilton , Tori Spelling .... all the blonds will be poolside for you

She's all yours.

robfla 06-04-2009 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678
Tori Spelling


Horse Face or

Horse Racing

Gander 06-04-2009 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla
Horse Face or

Horse Racing

LOL, you both beat me to it.
Gales, you have some very strange taste in women.

IrishofNDMan 06-04-2009 04:48 PM

can anyone post the pp's for the belmont stakes, thanks.

dpkovalesky 06-04-2009 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan
can anyone post the pp's for the belmont stakes, thanks.


http://www.drf.com/formulator-web/fr...&raceNumber=11

ateamstupid 06-04-2009 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
I dont think there is any chance Benny takes more money than Fabulous Strike.

Yes, the ML on Hull was strangely low. Isnt he the poly horse? I like Phil in this spot too. Thinking 5/2 on Phil.

Poly horse? Hull won the Derby Trial.

cakes44 06-04-2009 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike
Flying Private, the closest direct link to Mr Prospector or Deputy Minister. The offspring of these sires' have a nice success ratio in this race

Flying Private to win;)

You also have the "9th off a layoff" sheets play and the underrated "8 preps before the Belmont" statistical trend going for you. I like the bet.

ateamstupid 06-04-2009 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Miner's Escape looks like a horse to me that has the running style and the pedigree that might allow him to steal the race, or at least hold on for a minor share. He definitely seems to be a different and improving horse after being stretched out.
But, do you guys think Da Tara's performance last year will turn Miner's Escape from a possible overlay into an underlay because a lot of people will love the Zito/LaPenta longshot angle?

You could do a lot worse, and I think he'll be at least 25/1. There's no speed in this race. I wanted to bet against Charitable Man, but who has any speed other than those two?

Gander 06-04-2009 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Poly horse? Hull won the Derby Trial.

Sorry wrong horse. I was thinking of someone else. Not too familiar with Hull.
Do you like his chances?

ateamstupid 06-04-2009 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
Sorry wrong horse. I was thinking of someone else. Not too familiar with Hull.
Do you like his chances?

He's 3-for-3, was part of a wicked pace in the Derby Trial and still drew off to win by 4, though it's unclear whether he beat much. This is a way tougher test. He looks like the speed of the speed, but 3-1 seems a little short. I'd probably need 5-1 to get involved.

Gander 06-04-2009 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid
He's 3-for-3, was part of a wicked pace in the Derby Trial and still drew off to win by 4, though it's unclear whether he beat much. This is a way tougher test. He looks like the speed of the speed, but 3-1 seems a little short. I'd probably need 5-1 to get involved.

I'm using Munnings and This Ones for Phil in the picks/double. If the price is right on Phil, I will make a small win bet but this isnt one of my bigger opinions of the day.

Dunbar 06-04-2009 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander
No, I think you will get your price on Miners Escape, for no other reason because the Big 3 will be taking down the majority of all win bets.

I think he'll be every bit of 30/1.

I honestly think he's an underlay at 50-1. His best BSF is 89 and next best is 74. He hasn't run farther than 9 furlongs, and he ran the final 1/8th in just under 13 secs last time out. What's to like?

--Dunbar

miraja2 06-04-2009 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar
I honestly think he's an underlay at 50-1. His best BSF is 89 and next best is 74. He hasn't run farther than 9 furlongs, and he ran the final 1/8th in just under 13 secs last time out. What's to like?

--Dunbar

Really? An underlay at 50-1?
You are obviously right about him not fitting in terms of speed figures with even his lifetime best being well short of the big three in this race (and even the stupid Lukas colt), but that is why he might be in the 20/1 - 25/1 range. He isn't one of the more likely winners, but if you aren't a big believer in most of the other colts in this race - and I'm not - I think you could do worse than having a decent Mineshaft/Broad Brush sitting in first or second after 9f at something like 20/1. The others are likely going to need to go by him at some point, and while Dunkirk and Mine that Bird are probably good enough to do just that, I wouldn't be shocked to see him hang on for at least a share. But then again, I liked that Pletcher horse as a longshot in the Preakness, and I think he just finished that race about 5 minutes ago....so what do I know?

I also kind of like Summer Bird. All in all I think it is a pretty interesting race to ponder.


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