That room has gotten even more crowded recently.

No, but he's not as bad as people are making him out to be cause of how much he was overhyped (especially on here). He's the only 3yo aside from Big Brown that has any chance against older horses.

There are more than a few 3YOs who right now could beat older horses.

I was referring to males routing on the dirt. Sure there are a few that can beat AP Arrow and Ravel but not any others I could see running with a Wanderin Boy or Student Council.

I'm not so sure. Certainly I would give Mambo in Seattle ( who is better than Colonel John ) another chance on a dry track. Harlem Rocker could be competitive in the Cigar Mile.

I agree on Harlem Rocker, although whether a one turn mile is a route is up for debate. Not so sold on Mambo.

The classic part of this is that Casino Drive could very well tank in that allowance race next week, making all of this moot.

And since we're talking about Casino Drive, I just wanted to comment on all of the posts and articles I had to read all summer long about how Casino Drive would have definitely won the Belmont, had he ran, given how Big Brown performed.

Its funny cuz in reality, considering Casino Drive's soundness problems and how he was training at the time, CD might have been the only horse Big Brown was capable of beating that day.

Japanese trained horses don't have surface limitations DaHoss.. they are fed nothing but Yellow tail and Spanish mackeral, along with the speacial message therapy, this works to harden their feet and allowes for them to glide over all surfaces.. Geez you are so behind the times WAKE UP

Buy on mystery sell on history

It's really simple. Casino Drive is lightly raced, therefore we don't know how good he is. All other horses, we've seen how bad they are time and time again. We know the other 3 year olds don't have potential. There is no improvement for them.

This is very simple to answer. Look at both Big Brown and Curlin's records in 2008. Then look at the next best record after these two. You might need your binoculars to find another one worthy of picking.

It's a bit presumptuous to assume they can translate those kind of performances to synthetic.

sorry, i don't agree. considering the dearth of talent (other than curlin) in the older horse ranks. i think getting hung up on one performance, especially that long ago, is a mistake. why hasn't the horse done anything since then?? it's a very bizarre deal, and i don't get it at all.
in a way, it reminds me of that south american horse who came up back in the spring, and kept getting money on him-for no apparent reason. and kept running up the track as a result. and yes, i know casino drive is 2/2-BUT i do not understand why a two time runner, regardless of dam, is getting any attention at all. i think he'll be in over his head. where are all the folks who get up in arms when a relative newcomer gets tossed into the fire like this? there are folks who don't think zenyatta is seasoned enough to run in the classic (and i disagree) but these yahoo owners get a pass, because casino drive is by better than honour?

a bit?

I guess it is just clear to me that any horse other than Curlin or Big Brown, not neccesarrily in that order winning the BCC would be nothing other than a longshot. and a surprise. Thier records this year make that statement simple to not only me but handicappers alike.

a good handicapper will take the surface into consideration. to ignore a surface switch, regardless of feelings on talent, would be a big mistake. surface matters! it's an unknown at this point whether either big brown or curlin will handle the change. it's very possible that they'll like it, and it's also quite possible they won't handle the change at all. a drop in their effort may be enough for an AWT specialist to make up the difference.
handicappers don't bet the chalk, they look for who offers the most value/best chance to win money. this race is a good place to try to beat the favorite(s).

Agree 100%. To my point the money and handicappers (not to mention the media) will still be pointing to Big Brown and Curlin as the runaway favorites. The outcome may turn out very different, but I doubt it.

i guess our opinion on what makes a handicapper must differ. the crowd of bettors will make those two the faves, while 'cappers will be looking to beat them. and with good reason, this will be their most vulnerable spot all year.

If what you say is true, looks like there will be lots of money to be won. I hope you cash in your share. Me personally, I will be looking for one final Big Brown pay day. I wish the race was tomorrow. I can't wait. I love how the Derby winner is going into the BCC with incredible momentum (two solid victories on dirt and turf over upstarts and veteran horses). Clearly the adversity is behind him and the Big Brown camp can concentrate on just winning this race and solidify the Eclipse of 2008. Should other awards come his way, he will be deserving. I expect Curlin to will bring the very best Big Brown has to offer. We could be looking at heartstopper at the wire.

Yeah, when neither one of the two hit the wire first or second. LMAO :D

Why would you ridicule the two horses when all they do is WIN.....With your logic, thye would have a better shot at being one two if all they did was have much less impressive records than the rest?

They win on dirt, Brown has beaten bad horses on turf, but this is neither. One of those is the most likely winner by a wide margin, but both will be very short prices, and it's not a stretch to take a synthetic specialist in this spot.

So now he beat bad horses on turf? Leading up to that race I saw quite a few posts saying that he is finally facing competition and thought he'd get beaten. It seems to me, the more Big Brown wins, the worse he is hmmmmmmmm.

At least we have a hint in that both horses have shown the ability to handle the turf. I wonder if their respective sire stats suggest synthetic ability (is anyone keeping track of this yet?).

bloodhorse keeps track of it.

edit~i grabbed a fairly recent edition of bloodhorse, from sept 6. smart strike at that time was #31 on the synthetic sires list, boundary isn't listed.
as for boundary on the general sires list...if it wasn't for big brown, he wouldn't even be listed.

Could it be that there is another Invasor out there?

Great. Thanks.

yeah, they've added a list of synthetic sires by earnings. now i just wish they'd add a listing for dirt sires, as right now it's top sires, top turf, top synth, and then for first crop, 2 yo's, etc.

not sure if you know of it, they have a stallion register that you can get to from their site, or just type in stallionregister dot com, and you can look up any active sire. they also have various sire lists for current and past years on the bloodhorse website.

Hey, did you hear there were three TC winners in the 70s?

I respect both horses ... I just know that both horses will be short prices and there will most likely be some value elsewhere due to the surface change. JMO.