This is similar to when the Catholic Church forced Clavius and the rest of the Jesuit intelligencia to speak out against Galileo's discoveries (and the Copernican view of nature) in an all out effort to preserve the Aristotelian natural view.

We know how well that went.


Beyer knows better; I'm sure.

Freedy not to start an arguement but expert handicapper's do not use BSF to be honest most of the time they are useless to them. Go check out what BB ran on the sheets on thorograph he Ran a -4 1/2 which is the best number in the history since Thorograph started doing the derby OK if you don't Like Jerry Brown (I do) and Thorograph.

Go check out the Rag SHeets he ran a -1 which is the best number in the history of Ragozin's since they started doing the Derby. SO to say BB is not fast is totally not true IMO

ROund Pen

I've only been watching horse racing seriously on a national level for about 5 years, so I give up a lot of experience and wisdom to many on here. But if you watch all of Big Brown races, you have to be an idiot to not be impressed with the ease and brilliance he demonstrates when he runs.

GhostZapper is probably the best horse I've seen in the past 5 years, but it seemed he never coasted to victory, instead always having to work for it (granted, he didn't exude his greatness until he was an older horse).

I just think horses that can destroy large grade 1 fields with relative ease on dirt over and over again like Big Brown should be appreciated for how rare of an accomplishment that is, rather than ridiculued.

I agree with everything you said here.

Was BB the OVERWHELMING pick of the sheets BEFORE the Derby?

TFM,

Ive seen horses move up and down 4-5 points on sheet numbers depending what they do in their next start. They are a joke.

Wait, the racing world doesn't rotate around the BSF?

I do agree with Beyer's safe, and general quotes about Big Brown and the crop.

Fast?
As far as top speed, acelleration, and tactical speed - Brown is a star in most any era. Compared with the big3 of 2007, none of them match his ability in these three measures of speed.

Big Brown's cruising speed or the speed that he comfortably gallops/races is near or equal to Hard Spun. His natural ability rivals Curlin. His response to KD is the equal of Street Sense/Borel.

Big Brown obviously isn't a grinder or a slow closer. He is a speedy talent who runs his mediocre competition off the track on the turn.

While Brown hasn't yet faced a true Grade I horse, he has spotted the field "queen odds" in the Florida Derby with post 12, and then came back with post 20 in Kentucky.

why is moving 4 or 5 point in there next start make them a joke they are a very useful tool when you are handicapping. THats why most of the biggest Gamblers around incorporate one of the 2 sheets (Thorograph or Rags ) when they are playing the races.

One other note if a 4 or 5 point move is a joke then what would you consider a 30 to 40 point BSF move in a horses next start A Comedy Festival ?????

TFM you can go to either Web site thorograph.com or thesheets.com and review there Derby sheets for free you do have to register though.

But to answer your Question BB was the fastest horse going in and I believe if I remember right on thorograph if you took BB on top in the tri's over the horse's that had the next best numbers you would have hit the tri.

this is true. but i also see why some people have questions. for one, none of these horses are that fast. hes never been tried. the pace in the derby and preakness was slow. i want to see him win at belmont and i'll be there. but if they retire BB after the belmont, its a cop out. many horses in that race yesterday were eligible for non winners allowance company. come on already, what kind of grade 1 was that ? when horses run against inferior comp , of course they look great. if they quit with this horse in june , no one will ever know how good he is or could of been . bernardini used to look the same way until the waters got deep , which is usually the BC classic.

That may be true, but TG often doesn't like the fastest horse expecting a bounce.

Here was the BB Preakness analysis:

This includes some Derby comments:

The consensus then is that we probably won't know how good he is. The prevailing opinion on this board is that we won't see him after the Belmont. While I wasn't a Bernardini fan: when the waters got deep in the BC Classic, he did not disgrace himself. He ran a good race and was beaten by a better horse.

No no I agree CM I was speaking of the Derby IF you took the 6 horses that had just run a 0 under Big Brown you come up with a $3400 Tri

So TG is looking for BB to bounce and Dutrow is blowing him out the morning of the race? Go figure.

just because big brown won, does not make him a fast horse-just faster than what he faced, which wasn't much. it's a shame that he hasn't faced much of quality, since it lessens whatever he accomplishes. but it's hard to warm up to a horse who just barely breaks three digits in a classic race. i've seen better, tons better. but what can you do?

Sounds like you need a week at a BEYER detox facility.

To loosely quote my good friend Vanderbilt (from F-Troop), asked what type of woman he wanted when O'Rourke and Agarn were ordering mail order brides: "I just want a girl named SHirley; they all look the same to me".

speaking of "tons better"

But if he wins the Belmont winning these three races in the five weeks is quite an accomplishment. We've seen better horses fail.....

Big Brown ran a typical KD BSF period save the mushroom inspired Jerry Brown figs .

Sheet figures are different from other final time figs because they take wind, weight and ground loss into account.

All the horses in the Derby carried 126lbs - the winners of the other route races carried between 113lbs - to -117lbs. That is reason #1 why Big Brown's figure will come back faster on a sheet style figure.

There was a strong reported stretch head-wind, backstretch tailwind on Derby day - and the 10 furlong Derby was the one race that day that featured the highest proportion of horses racing into the wind versus racing with the wind at their back. That is reason #2 why BB's fig comes back faster on a sheet style scale.

Finally ground loss - BB was hung wide on both turns in the Derby. Reason #3 why it comes back faster on a sheet style fig.

I'm not sure what kind of Ragozin BB got - but I'm sure it also came back more impressive than any non sheet style number had his race.

I think BB's Beyer was souped up a few points because of wind - and it could have been slower. However, on a sheet style figure, BB's race has to come back very fast.

The wind was very real I was there it was blowing like emily

if

and yeah, it's an accomplishment. but there's no way i'd put this horse on par with many who have won it, or came close but couldn't pull it off for one reason or another.
he's gotta win it first tho.

I think BSF's don't do Big Brown justice..His races have been up against it in a big way even if the talent is VERY sub par.. They are still the best of the 3 year old class!

Big Jerry Brown = Emily

New stable name Emily Dick stables

If he wins the Belmont He'll never see the starting gate again in his life unless you took a picture of one and showed it to him at the Breeder's Farm.

While I will preface this with Casino Drive did show some promise in the PP. He has "wiseguy" tatooed to him like bees take to honey for the Belmont. I joked he in another thread that he might even go off as the favorite 3 weeks from now, maybe that isn't far off. He's the clear underlay second choice.

Casino Drive is the very antithesis of a " wise guy " horse.

At this point I would be happy if Big Brown just wins the Triple Crown, either way I agree with what you said earlier. It won't mean he's a greater horse if he does it, it just means he is much better than his 3 yr old competition is. I think we will see just how good he is if and when we see him line up against Curlin. I think the blinders will finally be open after we see how he fares against real racehorses.

i seriously doubt he faces curlin, or any other horse after the belmont. except mares that is...

I think the public would want it, or certainly demand it. I think it would tarnish whatever legacy he wants in the future if he doesn't. Alot has already been made of how mediocre this crop is, the colt atleast deserves a chance to dispel that notion.

It doesn't really matter what the public wants or demands. That's a debate for another time, but as far as reality, it doesn't matter -- not to the owner or the farm. As far as a legacy, it will only tarnish in the eyes of the public or the fan -- which again doesn't matter and is certainly not a concern of the owners, farm, breeder, etc. If the legacy is in the eye of the beholder -- the important eye is not the fan's, but the breeders, mare owners, people who are candidates to send mares, etc.

If the public continues to expect owners to manage their horses to the public's expectation, then the public will continue to be dissappointed.

Eric

If he retires after the Belmont I can only hope his foals end up being as spectacular as the Smarmy Jones's are reported to be.

And, oh yeah, Smarmy was one horse I am actually confident Big Brown could have handled. He would have beaten Afleet Alex as well.

Dynever, however, would have crushed him like a grape.

This is a debate for another time...I don't begrudge owners for trying to maximize their investments; however I guess I miss the days of having owners like Allen Paulson. A Sportsman that sold the game, surely if he retired Cigar after the BC in 1995, I doubt many young fans at that time would have gotten into this game, and that is the dilema I believe. There will always be core bettors that play the game but will newspapers and the media continue to pay attention if the game loses more fans. Sorry I kind of said more than I perhaps wanted to...that's another topic all together.

BB is no Ghostzapper.

http://www.adenastallions.com/stalli...id=Ghostzapper

legacy? what legacy? he's already made his legacy as far as ieah is concerned. they wanted 50 million for their newest brainchild, and he's put them a long way towards making it. if he wins the belmont, he will be too valuable to ieah and three chimneys to run again. smarty was mentioned above, we all know what his last race was....
and if big brown loses, he'll still retire-as no one would want to risk a second loss, to curlin or anyone else. have to protect that potential 100k stud fee. i'll be absolutely shocked and amazed if that horse runs again after his race in three weeks. he'll either go out 5-1, or 6-0, but go out he will.

as for the public, unless they can afford a share in big brown, ieah and three chimneys won't care what they think.

I completely understand your point, and I agree. However, I am also very clear on and aware of reality. Rather than debate who is and how a sportsmen would act, what I see is a very quick trigger pulled when an owner "disappoints" the public. It's become the common reaction, however, it also often comes from people who just don't understand the business. I hear people "count other people's money" and talk about a horse who could breed 100 mares at $75k and that's $15m in the first two years at stud. I've read this nonsense more than once.

Another example is James Tafel and Street Sense. As soon as he decided not to run in the Belmont, the gates of criticism burst wide open. In my opinion that was foolishness. Sure, different people have a different definition, but to critcize Tafel and say he's not a sportsmen -- that's BS.

Eric

Only if there was another horse in the race that could finish first.

Not to beat a dead horse here (sorry for the analogy), but who exactly has Casino Drive beaten that we're supposed to be impressed with (as compared to Big Brown)? A bunch of Japanese-bred maidens and a weak Peter Pan field consisting of Mint Lane, Ready's Echo, Golden Spikes, Cosmic, Spark Candle, Tomcito, Deputyville and Fast Talking. I'd say CD is making a big class jump in the Belmont.

Didn't Tomcito get up for 3rd in Big Brown's Florida Derby?