Have you ever thought about selling your picks online? I've got an idea where you're live on cam and after each race if your horse loses you take off an item of clothing.

I think this could be a fantastic business opportunity. PM me for more details.

:rolleyes:

I do not want a job in the racing business.

I can agree with you somewhat. I think it is somewhere in the middle. Some dirt horses can't run on the stuff, and some turf horses can't run on the stuff.

The polytrack at Del Mar seems to definitely favor turf horses though.

As long as certain posters are around, I wouldn't have to be worried that it would be me. Incredible. This is an incredibly slow crop of horses.

There is little doubt that I would be the first.

Well at this point they are slow. So far in January, February and March, they have indeed been slow. That is not to say that one or a few of them may start running very fast in April and May and later on in the year, but right none of them are running "fast" so to speak. Even Big Brown's "fast" run was against turf horses off turf in mud...or something like that.

They aren't slow, and I tried to point that out. Just because the figs say they are slow does not mean that they are... Just because the Cali horses are going to take a huge jump in BSFS (like Sierra Sunset did) when they come East does not mean that they have improved.

So, like I said, how does El Gato Malo go from a 99 to an 85 when he runs his guts out in both races?

How does visionaire jump up to a 98 without switching leads while Pyro only got a 95 while beating Visionaire in the Risen Star. Does that mean that I should think that Pyro is slow and that Visionaire is the better horse?

If someone would answer these questions, maybe I would quit spewing the "nonsense" and think that these horses are "slow" too like the rest of you since the figures say so.

Well, please explain the logic behind the numbers then. I really don't understand. Never claimed to understand. In fact, I said I didn't understand the logic several times. Do BSFs not take pace into account?

Can you use "painfully obvious," agenda" and "bad opinion" in the same sentence?

I really don't understand how this has turned into a three page discussion of whether or not this crop is slow so far. With the exception of War Pass, and a couple of decent races by horses chasing him last year, they've been dreadfully slow.

When every figure maker out there has figures that say they are slow compared to years past, it seems like a foregone conclusion that they are slow. Don't like Beyers? Cool, check another source. They all say this bunch is slow.

"I liked the way he looked in the stretch" does not make a horse fast, it means you like the the way the horse looked in the stretch. I've seen 4K claimers who look great in the stretch at Hawthorne in the middle of winter -- shall I sign them up for the Wood, since this new style of analysis that I've learned in this thread this afternoon has taught me what equals fast?

Damn all the numbers. It really is outrageous, how disconnected from racing reality some of the comments here are.

I will ask again since no one seems to want to answer a sincere question...

Please explain the logic behind the numbers then. I really don't understand. Never claimed to understand. In fact, I said I didn't understand the logic several times. Do BSFs take pace into account?

Without getting real specific....speed numbers sanitize actual finish time to adjust for (among other things) track condition, weather, distance, track to track differences.

They are part Art and part Science but they are definately more relavent than raw final time comparisons

I have never seen one, and I have watched Hawthorne quite a bit. Can you point out an example, so that I can watch one of these on race replays.

Thank you for explaining this. So they don't take pace into account like I thought? If they don't, it explains a whole lot, and I really don't think that I am wrong to think that some of these horses aren't slow.

In a nutshell, you don't know either right? I offered a lot of reasons to why I disagree. My argument was very logical. Pace makes the race, and since BSFs do not take pace into account...well.

Visionaire got a higher number in the Gotham than Pyro got in the Risen Star when Pyro is the superior animal. That speaks volumes in itself. Pyro should be in the 100+ range if he gets some pace to run at next out, which=not slow.

Sierra Sunset got a 99 when many of these horses will beat up on him. That speaks volumes about how talented this crop really is... I don't even know if that horse would be in my top 10 right now.

Oh, I'm sorry, I wasn't aware that you were an advocate of actually backing up what you say. I wasn't planning on being put on the spot, considering that you never seem to feel the need to back up your thoughts.

With that said, I don't have specific notes with me regarding my nickel claimer statement, but I'd be more than happy to find you one sometime in the near future during their Spring meet. I'll put it out there as soon as it happens.

Actually, I do back it up with examples and opinions. Not very many other people do on this board. That is one thing that I do. No one is willing to answer my questions regarding the differences in the Beyers of the horses that I mentioned. I was willing to say War Pass wasn't the most talented horse in the country a few weeks ago, and that Big Brown was more talented. I am willing to say that this crop is not slow. The results will either back me up or prove me wrong. We'll know in the next couple of months.

Imho...Pace is an extremely important factor in handicapping a race...but in a discussion as to whether or not the current crop of 3yo's is currently relatively slower than years past, ...well a comparison of speed figures is the most valid means of forming an informed opinion....speed figures are certainly more relavent than how a horse visually appears to be running in a portion of any specific race..

Well, we agree to disagree then, but I respect your opinion. I have been taught differently and have learned not to rely on speed figures for assessing talent in certain situations. Like I said, they are very useful sometimes. Sometimes they are dead on. I just think that some of these horses running are extremely talented right now despite the low BSFs becaue of the pace factor.

Nobody is implying that there is not a single horse that will turn in some fast races, or will turn out to be a good horse later this year, as far as I can tell.

The point is that right now, as of this very minute, this crop is slow in comparison to past groups.

No amount of obnoxious spin can change that.

If you are only looking at speed figures, then that fact cannot be changed. I am not only looking at speed figures. I am not willing to say that Pyro is slow just because of his 95 last out. I am not willing to say that Big Brown is slow. I am not willing to say that three of the Cali horses are slow because of their running style.

We'll have to just close the case, because we're arguing semantics, as it's obvious that you have yet to grasp what "fast" or "slow" mean, and believe that "visually impressive" is a proper substiture for those words.

A fine effort indeed Mr. Spencer ....

Voice of reason work no doubt....

But I'm affraid it's all a wasted effort.

I've given up myself, and have resorted to posting old "bangin' on wax" lyrics and starting trolltastic threads in the esoteric section.

so you are not looking at speed figs....you are not looking at final times....you seem to be saying that you are looking at visual observations of portions of selected races... and basing an opinion on overall speed on that portion of these selected races

It's like a sickness. I keep thinking that at some point, someone will say something that will finally wipe the foolish right off of her face.

And I continue to pray that it will be me.

Alas, I see it cannot be done.

We always figured you to be a multiple tool kind of girl.

When handicapping for the derby, I think the most important portion of a prep race is the final portion of the race. It tells you which horses can accelerate in the stretch, and which horses can get the 10 furlongs. For example, no matter what, El Gato Malo is a closer. He proved that he could close very well into a slow pace in his last. A horse like that is very dangerous for the derby even though he ran over synthetic. We all know what this horse did to Sierra Sunset. A stalker like Georgie Boy that can accelerate that quickly in the stretch is very dangerous in the Derby even though he ran over synthetic. I think that both horses can get the distance. The only thing that remains to be seen is if they can make the transition from synthetic to dirt. If they can, it's going to be one heck of a Derby.

I am looking at alot of factors. Pace is a huge factor. Visual of the entire race is very important. If they go slow early, horse has to be chomping at the bit (literally) the entire way until the jock says go. I need to see the explosion down the stretch when the pace is slow. I need to see a professional racehorse. Movement, guts, even previous races are very important. I look at final times in relation to the pace. I use BSFs to match horses up on talent when I can't watch the replays of the races.

I think when El Gato Malo runs a 99 and then comes back and runs an 85, the second number has to be ignored under the circumstances. If he wouldn't have ran as hard as he did in his previous race, I would think differently. He ran every bit as hard as he could have under the circumstances when you take the pace of the race into account. You couldn't have asked the horse to do anymore under the circumstances. He just ran into a horse that had a better trip that may be a little bit more talented and got a heck of a ride from a jock.

Can we please not talk about how big of a whore some of you all think I am just because I am a 22 yo blonde from NC.

Give yourself a cookie. That was good.

Someday you might actually ball up and share your detailed thoughts on a race before it runs.

Don't worry. The ones who don't like other men use socks and porn. You are in no danger from these guys.

The discussion in this thread has been less about handicapping for this years derby and more about comparing the speed shown so far by this years crop to that of other years...

do you have pics?

actually, i never thought of you that way at all, until now.

not that I would hold something like that against ya....but I don't think that was what was being discussed...

I didn't realize you were female either.....

Hey there ;) ;) ;)