:)...i was just a thought then

People look at horses differently. DCat has run very fast and brilliantly but has really beat just two quality horses, Invasor and Silver Train, while winning one Grade 1 race. There have been many single Grade 1 winners, just few who ran as quick as he has. Based on his big wins only, yes, sure, he is very special. Then again, his two wins last fall were in 5 and 6 horse fields in which he beat just one high quality racehorse. I would love to see him succeed in a big field, win when denied his preferred running style or win giving significant weight. Hopefully, he'll stay sound enough and stay on the track long enough for some of those things to happen. But it doesn't look that way.

HA! Probably right.

They caved to the "prep for the BC" stuff, I guess.

He's good, but he ain't Ghostzapper.

Other than running him in the Dubai World Cup with no prep race I've never had a problem with their handling of him at all. I assume they are handling him with kid gloves because the horse has a lot of soundness issues that leaves them with no choice.

How the hell is he supposed to win the Breeders Cup Classic?

Since his throat surgery, he's had zero races and only five workouts - all easy breezing workouts by all accounts.

He has no foundation at all under him - and that race is four weeks away.

He can prep in the Dirt Mile and 70 yards the day before if he needs a foundation.

They've shipped him to Dubai and back twice - and haven't allowed him to get a racing foundation under him.

Invasor did that too and shipped from Argentina before that. He managed to get a foundation last year and presumably would have this year had he not got injured.

I didn't imply he would or could win the BCC. Its clear he's not ready for it.
I merely suggested that before I would make comparisions to Ghostzapper, I would want to see something like that. a single great performance over top horses that would place his talent at or above everything else over the past ten years.

Does he need to win the Vosburgh to get into the BC Sprint? I think a second gets him 6 points... 12-way tie for 16th. Some above him are out, but others may run and get more points the next couple weeks as well.

Only seven spots are determined by points. The other 7 spots are at the discretion of the panel who would almost certainly select Discreet Cat.

Invasor did not winter there once.

He shipped there twice - both times from America while training here.

He's had five such performances already - I guess three would be minus the "against top horses part" - and I steadfastly believe the "beating top horses" stuff is wildly overrated.

It would be one thing if he had soft trips in those wins - but except for the Jerome, he didn't. They were authentic wins.

On countless occasions, I've seen very moderate horses of little ability beat top class fields because they out-tripped them.

I remember 12 years ago watching Wild Syn, who was less horse than a lot of claiming animals, easily beat Thunder Gulch and Tejano Run in the Blue Grass Stakes. TG and TR came back three weeks later to run 1st and 2nd in the Kentucky Derby - Wild Syn reverted back to his hideous form without the bias and setup he had in the Blue Grass. That was a race that I took a lot from when I first started betting.

La Traviata is a confirmed sprinter - with a very moderate 22.34 foot long stride length - She has three lifetime races under her belt and has never gone beyond six furlongs.

Mentioning her and the Breeders Cup Classic together is idiotic.

Although - according to you - it's the equivalent of using the '95 Blue Grass Stakes as the Classic example of how supposed "top horses" can be beaten by wildly inferior ones who out-trip them?

Did you happen to grow up in Kansas City by chance?

Well, breaking from the inside Fab Strike gets his shot at proving you correct about being a substantial race horse.

If he has any class at all, he'll be close at the end.

With no scratches, I make him 15-1 to win the race.

I also make it even money he finishes out of the top three.

To me, the fact that Fabulous Strike hasn't beat "Grade 1 type horses" means nothing at all.

Fact is, if he had the same dream trip as he did in those monsterous figure wins at Chuchill Downs and Mountaineer Park - he'd have decimated any top horse.

An off-the-pace type like Midnight Lute - who was SENSATIONAL winning the Forego wouldn't have had a prayer against him going six furlongs with an uncontested lead through soft fractions.

To me, the big knock on Fabulous Strike is about trips.

* He has yet to show the ability to battle through true fast fractions, take pace pressure, and run his big race.

* And I'm skeptical about how well he'd run if he's rated off of a fast pace and tries a change of tactics.

If you took all the great closing sprinters in the last fifteen years - and ran them against Fabulous Strike going six furlongs - FS would win, and probably stylishly, because he'd get no early pressure at all, and he's repeatedly shown the ability to run supersonic late fractions (often while under a full nelson) when he has things all his way through the early stages.

i think they've mishandled discreet cat. he suffered a huge setback after shipping to the us the first time, laid him up for months. so, then they ship him back to dubai, and then ship him back here again?! why? how many times do they need to have problems after shipping him before they realize that he's not a good shipper?
also, they did the same with another big horse of theirs--he was a derby hope, he shipped over, was never seen on the track again--he died a few months after arriving in new york...
what are those guys doing anyway regarding shipping? they keep wanting to run a horse at home, and then come here to win the derby. yet they can't get a horse here in the right shape to do that....

you say it doesn't matter that Fabulous Strike hasn't beaten Gr1 types, but then you say your knock on him is that he can't battle through fast fractions or rate if he has to, which are the very things he would be required to do in order to beat Gr1 types. thats why class matters.

Its no mystery that horses look unbeatable when they race against lesser company and have everything their own way.

But if Weigelia was in the race, Fab Strike would probably be stopping on the turn.

Fast he is. No doubt. But unless he's the lone speed, it's been worthless against good horses.

Well, he's in tomorrrow. Without going out too much on the line or divulging things you do not think you can on a message board, just how do you actually see him running tomorrow??

No they aren't. Often times Grade 3 sprint stakes feature tougher fractions than Grade 1 sprint stakes...you get much more cheap speed in those races.

I won't be betting on him....I don't like him in tomorrow's spot.

as well you should not.

oh good god man, don't play games. If Fabulous Strike is going to win any races against the fastest sprinters in the land, Gr1, Gr2, Gr3 doesn't matter, he will most definetely have to contest a hot pace and survive, or rate just behind and pounce. When he looked so awesome at Mountaineer there was nobody in the race. Who cares how he would fare being the lone speed against a field of all closers?

I think the jury is still out on this horse. In all of his losses since last june, he had acceptable excuses.

In the woody stephens, he was in the lead at the 6 furlong mark going in 108 and 4 and faded the last furlong. Hardly embarassing against the likes of too much bling and songster.

He didnt like the turf at monmouth.

He, like many others, didnt like the surface at calder.

If there is no discreet cat in this race, i would give this horse serious thought.

I already gave my opinion of the race, and you know you are the one playing games....and it's getting a little tiresome.

sorry, just trying to follow your logic.

you said you had two knocks on FS, I agreed and said that those are the things he'll have to do to win sprints against the best, then you said no they aren't. If they aren't then why would they be considered knocks?

Because, he can lose to horses far LESS than "the best" and he can decimate "the best" if he catches them in the right spot.

First of all - let's define who "the best" horses are in this sprint division right now.

If you believe the Watchmaker Watch and the TVG sprint poll, it's Midnight Lute and Smokey Stover - as the two clear-cut consensus choices in that division.

Both of those two have been defeated at six furlongs by a Cal Bred named Sailors Sunset. Now, since Sailors Sunset has beaten both the #1 and #2 ranked horse in both polls - should he be a sprinter taken seriously? Of course not! - because the fact that he beat the best horses means NOTHING when you consider the circumstance edge he had!

In both victories he took advantage of unpressured leads and proved too elusive of a target.

Unlike last year, when the top races in the sprint division often seemed to be one moderate paced big race after another - there are many one-way speed horses in the division right now.

If you remember last year, Thor's Echo hadn't won a single race of any kind in 18 months going into the Breeders Cup Sprint - trainer Doug O' Neill wanted to run him in an allowance race at Oak Tree, but it didn't fill, so he entered him in the Ancient Title the next day where he ran 2nd at huge odds and got a big speed figure.

Thor's Echo was 15/1 in the Breeders Cup Sprint because he hadn't won in forever, was routinely beaten in cal bred races, and was a 4-year-old who had never won a Graded Stake in his life inspite of repeated tries...thus he lacked "the class" to win.

It turns out, in a race lacking much speed, his only asset, combined with a great trip was good enough for a very easy 4 length win.

You act as though Fabulous Strike will never catch top horses in a race void of one-way speed. I believe there is a very good chance he will at some point, and when he does, he will dominate.

On many occasions, horses of FAR lesser ability than FS have beaten multiple great horses of FAR greater status than any of the top horses in the sprint divison.

The moderate Angle Light (who was 3-for-20 lifetime with ZERO stakes wins not counting the Wood) beat two greats in Sham and Secretariat when he wasn't pressed on the lead. Mr. Zippity Do Dah beat greats like Gulch and Bet Twice in the same race when he wasn't pressed.

If Fabulous Strike isn't pressed, he will beat anything in his division. And if you think he will always catch fields over-flowing with speed and get pressed in top class sprint races against the divisions best horse - you are dreaming.

And you are dreaming if you think this horse will ever catch a soft enough field to win a G 1 race. He caught his slow early graded field at Churchill. And anyone who doesn't look at the CD race time with a jaundiced eye must believe not only Fabulous Strike's close but also Cougar Cat's as well. Who can really believe Cougar Cat sat close and closed up in 23 2/5?

And his fields are not always overflowing with horses of any kind, much less filled with speeed. In the Aristides, he beat four horses. In the Panhandle, he beat three horses. In his two Belmont wins he beat four horses.

FS is a very fast, fun horse to watch. I admire him and you for liking him.

As an aside, a lot of people think Secretariat was far from his best going into the Wood.

wow.. that was a nice run

Nailed that one. This is why I'm the pro and you all suck.

I think you are putting it mildly.
I was EXTREMELY impressed with that run.

How sweet it is. Congrats to the Fabulous Strike fans. This made my day. :D

Great run by a very good horse.

I love to see guys like Beattie and Jones win big races.

:eek:

I was just going to do that!

I was wrong. I was very wrong. Very, very wrong.

Not the first time; won't be the last.

We all suck. Playing the horses is about trying to suck at least a little less than the next guy.