The sealing of the track seems to be a big issue this year at the Spa...I really don't know about the conditions at the Big A and Belmont trackwise but as an employer who is about an hour west of Saratoga and must keep track of the the weather conditions for his crew, thunderstorms were rolling thru the Mohawk Valley and the foothills of the Adirondacks daily...many just missing the Saratoga area. I kept a weather watch a few times for friends as well who were at the track just to let them know if any rain was on the way...Maybe Passero did get a little carried away sealing the track like he did but there was a threat of severe storms and downpours quite a few of the days this summer. They might not of hit the Spa but you didn't have to travel far to see where they did hit.

From the other thread..

For this race..

I like the angle about late developing 3 year olds who have improved recently continuing winning ways in this race and will try to beat Otave as well with Bear Now/Moon Catcher/Octave,Talking Bout Love and let the race hopefully bring value boxing combinations of these.

If Octave wins the race I lose if not I got a shot at decent payoffs.


I think it's pretty clear who I was playing to win. The dissapointment was with Octave taking second but hey....I'll take that price to win anytime. The moon catcher stuff was about the fig being the best at the distance.

why did jv take octave off the rail and run her in the 3 path the whole way around? when they turned for home the rail was Wide open and octave was in the 5-6 path. they ran most of the stretch in the middle of the track.

Which we should cheering because if TAP is a play against then the payoff on the winners is higher than expected. Like today with Bear Now going off 8.40-1 when it opened at 5-1. As long as your picking winners Todd is making sure your paid better than you should expect

This Pletcher 'snide' has racked my brain since toga opened. I was at first chalking it up to the law of averages, and even the best of the best in every sport go through slumps. The high-profile runners have been well documented, most notibly R2R. It wasn't until the "Belle of Belmont" shocking defeat that I stood back and felt a tinny bit of pity for the rigid grey goose. The fact is that the entire barn is on tilt. The everyday maiden and alwn1x runners are not even coming close to running the type of races we have come to expect.

However, every weekend when I go to the OTB, I warn myself that this is the saturday that the T.A.P. reopens. I run to the windows to get the 5-1 that would of been 5-2 two months ago, feeling like the genius that thinks he is the first to notice a track bias.

I will say that that I made a hit with wait a while going on the angle that she did all her prepping at churchill away from all the bad karma.

I think he ran alot of good first timers at monmouth rather than waiting for toga. Alot of the dogwood horses and The Roundhouse I know won there. The snide will eventually end!

Good thread, BTW..

Usually, when a trainer hits a cold streak, you can figure out why. Maybe they had horses with a lot of conditions left and used them up. Claiming barns sometimes lose a bunch of horses in a short span. Maybe there has been a loss of a big owner or two. Sometimes there is illness in the barn.

In this case, nearly all the horses seem to have gone off form. These horses not only aren't winning, they aren't coming close to living up to the ability the previous PP lines show they have. There is no logical explanation to the slump. Perhaps Todd has lost his drive since lucking into finally winning a TC race.

As a bettor, this is a great thing. As a fan of the sport, it is also a good thing. Having too many horses in one barn isn't good for anyone other than the trainer himself. Mabye this will help change that, though somehow I doubt it.

/ = over....

Bear Now over Moon Catcher over Octave , Talking bout Love as in Tri. The only thing wrong here was the second place prediction.

Kind of Byk format....

U May Have The Answer
 

Maybe the labs have caught up with shiat and soon who knows he just might heat up when his people develope the new shiat that passes untill word gets out and atest is found for the new crap or could it be other trainers got his cocktail and table s might be evening a little all that would is 1 groom to get pissed and leave and he was in the know

that's about right. TP is no wunderkind and his horses are there to make money for the big time owners. Does he cheat ? It starting to look like it isn't it ? Let's keep the testing and regulations going to bring these big time frauds down to reality.

There is something going on. The main thing I notice as a few have mentioned is the "re-breaking". Until I read that on here, I couldn't put a finger on it, but the last few years, his horses have had that "extra" down the stretch, I can't remember the horses name now, but there was a 7 furlong race at GP this winter. The horse dueled the entire 7 furlongs and pulled away late. AGS looked absolutely lethargic down the stretch yesterday. Octave and Fairbanks no extra gear. His 2 YO's have been bad this year so far.

That's a great point about the "Re-Break"! The re-break has been what has differentiated Pletcher horses from all others. Sorry to join this thread so late, and I'm glad Andy brought this up. I've been thinking about it for a while, but didn't want to be called a "conspiracy theorist".
There is OBVIOUSLY something different with his barn.. and Mr Byck talks with the person who would have the most knowledge of what it is every Tuesday!

I know the majority of Pletcher horses really look like they are missing that added something - but super trainer Steve Asmussen is putting on a dazzling statistical exhibition at Presque Isle Downs.

He's 4-for-73 at the meet - and his record with post time favorites is a remarkable 1-for-30!

In fact, if you take out Catonight (an Asmussen 10K claimer who's 2-for-2 at the meet) - his record is 2-for-71 overall and 0-for-29 with post time favorites.

And it's not like his favorites have been lukewarm ones in wide open claiming races - they've mostly been overwhelming favorites.

I was even thinking of doing a piece about this - but, when you see the takeout rates and how the horse players are being treated here - it's hard to write about something as fluffy and flowery positive as a proven cheater coming off of a six month suspension and burning up enough money to fill the Grand Canyon.

If you don't write about this you don't have a hair on your .... errrrr.... head.

i think that is a good, reasonable question.

So what explains the lack of media reporting and opining about the sport's top trainers having far below expected results? Is it just too small a world?

Staff changes?
Suspension changed training routines?
Horse Quality?
Biancone effect?
Just bad luck? (he did win with a 2 yo on Friday)
Too much focus on big horses?
Criticism not valid (only 7 or 8 weeks and did win $2 mil+ and four Gradeds at Sar)?
Too much time evaluating Kee Sales?
Bug in barn?
Family stuff?
Being such a big operation just caught up?

It's probably a number of factors at play. Who knows which ones. But I'd say the "slump" probably goes on for a while. You can turn a rowboat around in a second. But a ship as big as the one he's driving takes time to turn.

There seems to have long been an image in the media of TAP being some sort of golden boy, a sacred cow. His horses just disappear and no one asks questions. A few years ago he had 3 horses die in non racing related circumstances, at Saratoga. One was G1 winner Left Bank, one was a SW 2yo filly. I never saw a thing in print but "Oh poor Todd" articles.
Part of the problem is that asking tough questions WILL get you denied access to info in the future. Writers for DRF and other outlets may have questions, and allude to them now and again but they will never become Chris Matthews or Bill O'Reilly or they will be barred from covering Todd's return to the golden glow next spring as his 3yo's prepared for the one day that everyone cares about, Derby Day.
On the other hand certain trainers seem to be easy to portray as the bad guys. DWL and Assman are the current men in black. Over the last decade while TAP has seen horses mysteriously vanish from his barn while NOT answering questions, DWL has been demonized as a horse destroyer with nothing but his own interest at hand. DWL, throughout this time has not duck the press and even admitted when he has made mistakes.

I think most of those writers think that they personally have nothing to gain and something to lose if they report on that.

What exactly would they lose? A few quotes from Todd himself? Who really gives a ****?

Because he is one.

But in his case - it's because he handles todays more fragile horses the same way he did when horses could stand up to his training and racing schedule. He hasn't adjusted well.

In his case, I don't think anyone believe it was designer drugs or exotic drugs no one can test for that was causing his horses to fall apart.

I think TID and Linny are right.

Anyone who has a family to support and works for a corporation has done the same thing. And I'd guess it's not as easy for a mid-level DRF reporter who does an ok job to land somewhere else as it is for, say, a similarly successful pharmaceutical sales rep.

Crist and Beyer (especially Beyer) will say exactly what's on their mind (or it seems). Lots of Beyer's stuff I really disagree with but I'm glad he says it.

Nothing to gain and lots to lose is a tough job to have.

I agree with you and wish they would start asking serious and tough questions.

In Asmussen's case up here, on paper, he has a very strong looking hand again today. Three morning line favorites, and another who figures to vie for favortisim.

If he gets blanked yet again - I'll give my horse players aren't getting treated right onslaught a rest - and focus my unbridled negativity to that. I have no career at this anyway.

certainly an intriguing situation tho...two trainers who seemingly win anything and everything have both handed well-publicized suspensions, and now both are slumping.
of course that's the easy answer, and there could be many more factors involved. but i think it's a point to be made more so with asmussen, then pletcher. i believe that was pletchers first offense, while it's far from the first time that assmussen got caught with his hand in the illegal cookie jar. harder to believe that the leopard can change his spots overnight, yet six months is some serious time. wouldn't it be nice if everyone went back to just hay, oats and water--the playing field is levelled, and no one has to serve suspensions...it would go back to horsemanship only.

i guess i better pinch myself, i must be dreaming!

I think Andy was most spot-on with how dismal Any Given Saturday looked winning the Brooklyn. You could have told me it was a quintet of $25k claimers coming down the stretch and I would have believed you. They looked pitiful. Maybe it's just a fluke, or maybe the current state of Pletchers barn took out the wow factor of AGS' win. Very interesting.

I think all of Pletcher's stakes runners I saw yesterday looked a little flat through the late stages - like they missed that added something.

i think everyone saw the same thing, it was not impressive and as everyone else is saying his horses seem to have lost that extra something.

makes me wonder about Lawyer Ron who has had that extra something recently. will he still have it in the JCGC or will he also come back down to earth?

i think they made lr a project horse at t.a.p.... got em nice n fit and let him do the rest ...a great job..but when you have the amount of stock he has ..you can make a few high points in a not so great year..rags wasnt ready to come back..eh run em anyway.. the breeding alone will be worth millions.. only a guy like that that would enter a horse of that value in questionable shape..imo

..see blue gress cat

Yes. They are.

Eric

Frankly I think Pletcher has been running short horses for a while now and perhaps the results --especially amongst his big guns-- are showing up now glaringly ... The closing kicks aforementioned not being there says short . All the spacings of workouts and races and babying and resting, and his shopping for a soft win when he should be producing a racehard horse just is not working . His so called fresh horses have nada where it counts and just look short . AGS's race was beyond flat--it was somnabulistic .

Regarding the so called track condition issue(s) of today -- this has been going on for years. For whatever reason, it's coming to life now and getting to the forefront. Regardless, Todd has given a quote here and there, but has been very indifferent, almost ambivalent. Why hasn't anyone come right out and asked him whether or not there is a problem?

There are a few who are vocal and who think there is a huge problem. There are others who think there is absolutely nothing wrong. This entire issue -- real or not -- has nothing to do with Pletcher's barn. That's why I think he hasn't been vocal at all.

Eric

He didn't look great but then again how good could he have looked against that crew, especially when the only colt with any chance to beat him ran the worst of all?

The horse that ran last was the worst horse in the field. The horse that ran 3rd last time ran by him late with a tougher trip, so how was he at least not better?

Anyway, he could look great by tracking the speed, cruising by, and winning off easily. How he didn't is a mystery.

If all you ever look at is last race, yeah, maybe. Not exactly reflected in the $250k or so in the win pool. It's certainly easy to call the last place finisher the worst horse in the field a day after the race. Going into the race it can be just a bit tougher.

Well, cmorioles proclaims a day later he was obviously the worst horse going in. You agree? No big deal and congrats if you did.

If you saw this before the race and bet the right way, you got paid pretty good as the tri paid $65. Keying AGS over all ex-Sightseeing turned a 1/5 horse into 9/2 or so.

Crist and Beyer write opinion pieces, they are not reporters. The guys who report wont have much to tell folks if trainers (who they rely on for info) wont speak to them after they report or ask something that the trainer doesn't want published. if a guy like Grening had no access to TAP, McLaughlin, Shug, Violette, etc the would not have a job for long.

Well then what is the point of the job in the first place? Mouthpiece to the trainer?