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jpops757 07-27-2007 12:08 PM
Brass hat surly has had some issues but I think Buff and Brass Hat are trying to tell you he is back. Invasors rretirement added to his soundness.

Mike 07-27-2007 01:39 PM
Love Fairbanks here. If it's wet, I'd be tempted to go with Brass Hat, but so will everyone else and he'd be 7-1. Odds on Fairbanks would not be effected by an off track, as he's 0-0, but pedigree and front running style makes me stay with Fairbaks, even if on wet

philcski 07-27-2007 01:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I don't get it. Invasor retiring helped Brass Hat's soundness?
My boss retiring from her position helped my soundness...

miraja2 07-27-2007 04:32 PM
Past Performances:
http://www.drf.com/row/pps/07whitney.pdf
http://ntra.equibase.com/eqbNTRAGetF...USA&de=D&rn=10

Downthestretch55 07-27-2007 06:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I am sort of with HOC and King Glorious here. I realize he set a track record, but he did it beating Student Council. The track was lightening fast. I realize he did it off the long layoff, injury, etc. I suppose the ML is a bit high, but I would be very careful betting a horse like that coming back in 20 days.

I understand it's a nice story and all, but the horse should be double digit odds in here. And 20-1 in the Breeders Cup? He should be 50-1, maybe higher as of right now. First the chances he or anyone gets there is slim nowadays. He's obviously not the soundest of animals judging by the gaps in his form. To take anything near 20-1 on him in the BC is foolish in my opinion.
DH,
I hope you're sitting down.
Wonder of wonders...
I totally agree!!!!!!!!!

brianwspencer 07-27-2007 06:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Downthestretch55
DH,
I hope you're sitting down.
Wonder of wonders...
I totally agree!!!!!!!!!
I doubt he'll care. Sitting down is still advised for this post, so he can catch some zzzzzzzzzzzzs more easily.

King Glorious 07-28-2007 01:21 AM
I'm going to play an exacta box of Magna Graduate, Fairbanks, and Diamond Stipes.

I'm going to play a five horse box of Brass Hat, Fairbanks, Diamond Stripes, Magna Graduate and Lawyer Ron for the tri.

I'll bet Brass Hat and Fairbanks to win.

I'll play a super of:
Magna Grad, Fairbanks
Magna Grad, Fairbanks
Diamond Stripes, Brass Hat, Lawyer Ron
Brass Hat, Papi Chulo, Diamond Stripes, Wanderin Boy, Lawyer Ron

My prediction on the order of finish is:
Magna Graduate
Fairbanks
Diamond Stripes
Lawyer Ron
Brass Hat
Wanderin Boy
Papi Chullo
Sun King
Awesome Twist
Flashy Bull
Student Council
Dry Martini

letswastemoney 07-28-2007 01:24 AM
No one gives Flashy Bull any respect! He runs a 105 range beyer everytime!

Pedigree Ann 07-28-2007 11:46 AM
Brass Hat has had his prep after recovering from a fractured sesamoid last year. Obviously, after such a long layoff, he was not fully cranked up for the race at Churchill; it was designed to improve his fitness and the fact that he won was an unexpected bonus. (He suffered a codylar fracture in Texas as a 3yo, was off for a year, had a turf prep in which he ran nowhere, then won 3 in a row.)

Let me remind you of this: Brass Hat is intrinsically a better horse than the other horses in this race. He's beaten Magna Graduate by open lengths whenever they have met. He made highly touted East Coasters like Suave and Pollard's Vision look like allowance horses. Ignore him at your peril.

FGFan 07-28-2007 11:47 AM
Don't think anyone picked him here, haven't read all the posts.
But Student Council is scratched.

miraja2 07-28-2007 01:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
Brass Hat has had his prep after recovering from a fractured sesamoid last year. Obviously, after such a long layoff, he was not fully cranked up for the race at Churchill; it was designed to improve his fitness and the fact that he won was an unexpected bonus. (He suffered a codylar fracture in Texas as a 3yo, was off for a year, had a turf prep in which he ran nowhere, then won 3 in a row.)

Let me remind you of this: Brass Hat is intrinsically a better horse than the other horses in this race. He's beaten Magna Graduate by open lengths whenever they have met. He made highly touted East Coasters like Suave and Pollard's Vision look like allowance horses. Ignore him at your peril.
I completely disagree with you on that.....and so do the speed figures.
Five horses in here have run a BSF of 110 or higher. Brass Hat is not one of them.

Left Bank 07-28-2007 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash
Lawyer Ron
You are Da Man!

KY_Sasquash 07-28-2007 05:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kimmeastar
You are Da Man!

thanks, i knew i'd get good odds on him b/c he was the forgotten horse even though his sheet numbers where the best in the race and he was up against a huge bias in his last at Monmouth which he closed into. hope you used him too

Left Bank 07-28-2007 05:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash
thanks, i knew i'd get good odds on him b/c he was the forgotten horse even though his sheet numbers where the best in the race and he was up against a huge bias in his last at Monmouth which he closed into. hope you used him too
I had him in the pick 4 but not for a win bet.I kinda thought Sun King might do better with his 58.4 workout,but I guess not.

Downthestretch55 07-28-2007 05:37 PM
KY Sas,
Nice call!
Lawyer Ron set a track record. Stamps himself as the leader of this division.
My picks didn't pan out in this one. LR beat some very nice ones today.

Travis Stone 07-28-2007 06:10 PM
The track was a bit tilted today. Closers who tried to close deserve more attention next time -- horses like Dry Martini who were parked out and ran okay despite a tough track on the closers.

ArlJim78 07-28-2007 06:30 PM
Lawyer Ron winning is not a big surprise, he was arguably the most accomplished horse in the race.

What I can't figure though is the time. Where in the hell did that come from?
Was the track playing that fast today?

I'm suspicious because if Lawyer Ron blew away the track record today, I believe it means basically that Wanderin Boy approximately equaled the track record finishing less than 5 lengths back. That just doesn't seem possible to me.

Maybe the speed figure experts on here can shed more light on it.

letswastemoney 07-28-2007 07:05 PM
It could happen.

Downthestretch55 07-28-2007 07:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
It could happen.
LOL!!!
That's why it's called "horse racin"!

pgardn 07-28-2007 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Lawyer Ron winning is not a big surprise, he was arguably the most accomplished horse in the race.

What I can't figure though is the time. Where in the hell did that come from?
Was the track playing that fast today?

I'm suspicious because if Lawyer Ron blew away the track record today, I believe it means basically that Wanderin Boy approximately equaled the track record finishing less than 5 lengths back. That just doesn't seem possible to me.

Maybe the speed figure experts on here can shed more light on it.
Not here to testify as a speed expert.
I think the girls where two seconds and 1/5 seconds behind the record. And that was Ginger Punch in a romp. So I guess that gives a bit of relativity. Diabolical was 6/10 ths of a second off the track record at 6f.

Lawyer Ron did go wider than the rest. So that makes the run a bit more impressive although he appearred to get to the first turn without trouble and had a clean race. So I think he popped a pretty impressive time on a track that was faster.

Downthestretch55 07-28-2007 08:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pgardn
Not here to testify as a speed expert.
I think the girls where two seconds and 1/5 seconds behind the record. And that was Ginger Punch in a romp. So I guess that gives a bit of relativity. Diabolical was 6/10 ths of a second off the track record at 6f.

Lawyer Ron did go wider than the rest. So that makes the run a bit more impressive although he appearred to get to the first turn without trouble and had a clean race. So I think he popped a pretty impressive time on a track that was faster.
Good point Pgardn.
We've been having t-storms lately, after a couple of rainy days. I don't know what was done to the track, though I guess it was rolled.
Those track conditions were the same for all of the horses that ran over it today.
Lawyer Ron ran a clean race, and good for him and his connections.

miraja2 07-28-2007 08:53 PM
Few things can be as misleading in determining the quality of a horse's performance as a NTR.
Remember when SOME people got really excited by some overrated horse breaking a track record at CD a few weeks ago? Well, he just finished eighth in the Whitney.
Still though, it was a strong performance by Lawyer Ron. I don't like him going much further than today's 9f distance, but from 8f-9f he is a very good animal.

horseofcourse 07-29-2007 08:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Lawyer Ron winning is not a big surprise, he was arguably the most accomplished horse in the race.

What I can't figure though is the time. Where in the hell did that come from?
Was the track playing that fast today?

I'm suspicious because if Lawyer Ron blew away the track record today, I believe it means basically that Wanderin Boy approximately equaled the track record finishing less than 5 lengths back. That just doesn't seem possible to me.

Maybe the speed figure experts on here can shed more light on it.
There's an article on DRF where they are seriously questioning the time of the Whitney which would give him a raw Beyer of 138 and with a variant applied a 128 and Wanderin Boy a 120 and Diamond Stripes a 117. They're pretty certain an error was made timing.

ArlJim78 07-29-2007 09:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by horseofcourse
There's an article on DRF where they are seriously questioning the time of the Whitney which would give him a raw Beyer of 138 and with a variant applied a 128 and Wanderin Boy a 120 and Diamond Stripes a 117. They're pretty certain an error was made timing.
haha, thanks. I was waiting to hear what the beyer was going to be.
Lawyer Ron ran a fine race to be sure, but that time is really questionable in my view.

miraja2 07-29-2007 09:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by horseofcourse
with a variant applied a 128 and Wanderin Boy a 120 and Diamond Stripes a 117. They're pretty certain an error was made timing.
You don't often hear of a horse taking a 19 point jump from his lifetime best BSF in his 23rd career start.
A 120 would also be a seven point personal best for Wanderin Boy, and a 117 an eleven point personal best for Diamond Stripes.
Needless to say, that would be MORE than a little unususal.

DJK 07-29-2007 12:48 PM
I was there yesterday and didn't bet the Whitney, as I couldn't get a good feel for it. Someone I know was literally sitting there flipping a coin and finally shrugged. Didn't make it a bit less enjoyable to watch and I certainly was impressed by the performance of Lawyer Ron. (Although I didn't count off the time as the race was running: one-Mississippi, two-Mississippi...)

philcski 07-30-2007 09:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
That's around the ballpark I was thinking, too. He's facing a crew of big ones in here, but with how wide open this division is and how these races have been unfolding, I don't see it as too crazy to see him crashing the exotics.

Maybe it is crazy...who knows!
Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
I don't think it's crazy. I'd much rather bet a hard trying grinder in this type of field than a Fairbanks all-or-nothing type. Can he win? doubtful... but 3rd, 4th is well within his ability.
Beaten a length for 4th (by Fairbanks, of course :rolleyes: )and three for 3rd. Not bad. Got bet a little more than I expected, 18-1.

hoovesupsideyourhead 07-31-2007 04:28 PM
my only two comments on the day was.."brass hat will have a sign on his ass that says pass on the right'..AND WANDERING BOY RUNS BIG..

letswastemoney 07-31-2007 04:40 PM
One must wonder what were those horses eating that morning :D :D Must be some horse version of Wheaties.

Storm Cadet 07-31-2007 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by horseofcourse
There's an article on DRF where they are seriously questioning the time of the Whitney which would give him a raw Beyer of 138 and with a variant applied a 128 and Wanderin Boy a 120 and Diamond Stripes a 117. They're pretty certain an error was made timing.
They announced today that the timing WAS CORRECT. On the NYRA site today!

The time will stand as a record. The timing was done electronically, hand timed by NYRA person as well as others today went back and timed the race. ALL got the same exact time.

http://www.nyra.com/saratoga/stories...07302007.shtml


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