Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Yes, you are misinformed about whether or not you can tell if an animal does not move as well as they once did over the television screen.

And no I wasn't at Tampa. I have talked with several people in the business about this and have been doing this for awhile now. I said that the horses were not moving as well in that race, and they weren't. I didn't say that they were necessarily sore or lame. It was publicly known that Street Sense had issues before he ever made his first start back this year. In hindsight, the horse may not have liked the Tampa Bay Derby surface and was probably getting tired at the end of the race. When he ran in the BG Stakes, he was moving much stronger and better and proved that he could run through whatever problems that he has. At Churchill Downs, he was moving beautifully and training like a monster, and that is why I picked him to win the Derby.

On the other hand, AGS did just the opposite. AGS was not moving in that race as well as he moved as a two-year-old, and he proved in the Wood that he could not run through whatever problems he has to cause that kind of action. The Tampa Bay Derby did him in, and he has not been able to show his true ability since that race. Hopefully, Pletcher can get him straight and he can get back to his racing career in as short of an amount of time as possible because I think that he is one of the best of his generation.

Sometimes, these horses are not what you would necessarily call lame but you can tell that something isn't quite right with them when their action while racing is different from their previous race.

Someone who is known for his ability to judge horses in this manner in the horse racing industry agreed with me about these two horses in that particular race by watching them on the tape.

Also, not that the two year old sales have anything really to do with this, but I would also like to point out that trainers like Baffert who have a really good eye for horses do not even watch the previews live at most of the sales. They are sent the videos and can tell everything that they need to know by watching the video including if a horse is off or not. They then look at the Hip Numbers that they are interested in a few days before the sale.

Trainers like Ellis actually watch the horses work live, look at the horses the day after the works to check for soundness, and then rely heavily on the video to get a better idea of what they are looking at because you can judge the way a horse is traveling a lot better watching the videos than you can judge them by watching them go live.

Just like every knowledgeable person who have great reputations that I have talked to in this business about it, I can tell if a horse is sore in the walking ring or post parade easier on the TV than I can live. The truth of the matter is that you're going to see the same bad steps that they take over the TV as you do live.

It is the exact same principle as to why riders like me like to watch vidoes of their horses going. It is also why people like Dr. Bob Mowry teach his learner judges about judging horses through videos before they start their live work. It's just easier to see everything that they are doing.

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Yes, you are misinformed about whether or not you can tell if an animal does not move as well as they once did over the television screen.

And no I wasn't at Tampa. I have talked with several people in the business about this and have been doing this for awhile now. I said that the horses were not moving as well in that race, and they weren't. I didn't say that they were necessarily sore or lame. It was publicly known that Street Sense had issues before he ever made his first start back this year. In hindsight, the horse may not have liked the Tampa Bay Derby surface and was probably getting tired at the end of the race. When he ran in the BG Stakes, he was moving much stronger and better and proved that he could run through whatever problems that he has. At Churchill Downs, he was moving beautifully and training like a monster, and that is why I picked him to win the Derby.

On the other hand, AGS did just the opposite. AGS was not moving in that race as well as he moved as a two-year-old, and he proved in the Wood that he could not run through whatever problems he has to cause that kind of action. The Tampa Bay Derby did him in, and he has not been able to show his true ability since that race. Hopefully, Pletcher can get him straight and he can get back to his racing career in as short of an amount of time as possible because I think that he is one of the best of his generation.

Sometimes, these horses are not what you would necessarily call lame but you can tell that something isn't quite right with them when their action while racing is different from their previous race.

Someone who is known for his ability to judge horses in this manner in the horse racing industry agreed with me about these two horses in that particular race by watching them on the tape.

Also, not that the two year old sales have anything really to do with this, but I would also like to point out that trainers like Baffert who have a really good eye for horses do not even watch the previews live at most of the sales. They are sent the videos and can tell everything that they need to know by watching the video including if a horse is off or not. They then look at the Hip Numbers that they are interested in a few days before the sale.

Trainers like Ellis actually watch the horses work live, look at the horses the day after the works to check for soundness, and then rely heavily on the video to get a better idea of what they are looking at because you can judge the way a horse is traveling a lot better watching the videos than you can judge them by watching them go live.

Just like every knowledgeable person who have great reputations that I have talked to in this business about it, I can tell if a horse is sore in the walking ring or post parade easier on the TV than I can live. The truth of the matter is that you're going to see the same bad steps that they take over the TV as you do live.

It is the exact same principle as to why riders like me like to watch vidoes of their horses going. It is also why people like Dr. Bob Mowry teach his learner judges about judging horses through videos before they start their live work. It's just easier to see everything that they are doing.

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

News flash:

You said YOURSELF, Ms. Expert of all things horseracing, that you doubted Street Sense would enter the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby. Oh how RIGHT you turned out to be about that one.

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

There is no reason to get an attitude. I did doubt that he would be in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May just after I watched that race because of the front wraps, the horse's known issues, and the way that he looked at the end of that race. In the end, I had the horse picked to win the Derby because he looked much better in the BG Stakes despite the loss that day.

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Yes, you are misinformed about whether or not you can tell if an animal does not move as well as they once did over the television screen.

And no I wasn't at Tampa. I have talked with several people in the business about this and have been doing this for awhile now. I said that the horses were not moving as well in that race, and they weren't. I didn't say that they were necessarily sore or lame. It was publicly known that Street Sense had issues before he ever made his first start back this year. In hindsight, the horse may not have liked the Tampa Bay Derby surface and was probably getting tired at the end of the race. When he ran in the BG Stakes, he was moving much stronger and better and proved that he could run through whatever problems that he has. At Churchill Downs, he was moving beautifully and training like a monster, and that is why I picked him to win the Derby.

On the other hand, AGS did just the opposite. AGS was not moving in that race as well as he moved as a two-year-old, and he proved in the Wood that he could not run through whatever problems he has to cause that kind of action. The Tampa Bay Derby did him in, and he has not been able to show his true ability since that race. Hopefully, Pletcher can get him straight and he can get back to his racing career in as short of an amount of time as possible because I think that he is one of the best of his generation.

Sometimes, these horses are not what you would necessarily call lame but you can tell that something isn't quite right with them when their action while racing is different from their previous race.

Someone who is known for his ability to judge horses in this manner in the horse racing industry agreed with me about these two horses in that particular race by watching them on the tape.

Also, not that the two year old sales have anything really to do with this, but I would also like to point out that trainers like Baffert who have a really good eye for horses do not even watch the previews live at most of the sales. They are sent the videos and can tell everything that they need to know by watching the video including if a horse is off or not. They then look at the Hip Numbers that they are interested in a few days before the sale.

Trainers like Ellis actually watch the horses work live, look at the horses the day after the works to check for soundness, and then rely heavily on the video to get a better idea of what they are looking at because you can judge the way a horse is traveling a lot better watching the videos than you can judge them by watching them go live.

Just like every knowledgeable person who have great reputations that I have talked to in this business about it, I can tell if a horse is sore in the walking ring or post parade easier on the TV than I can live. The truth of the matter is that you're going to see the same bad steps that they take over the TV as you do live.

It is the exact same principle as to why riders like me like to watch vidoes of their horses going. It is also why people like Dr. Bob Mowry teach his learner judges about judging horses through videos before they start their live work. It's just easier to see everything that they are doing.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Hey, that's my alma mater, assholeface.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Yeah you smarties with your knowledge of sore horses and info from industry insiders..

Originally Posted by paisjpq

holy sh*t...feels like the good old days have returned. Wish I wasn't so under the weather with this cold....otherwise I'd have to go get a nice cold alcoholic beverage (cause I LOVE alcohol)

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I'm sick too. It's too bad because I love to go out clubbing and I'm always the life of the party.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You sound hot.

Originally Posted by estreetposse

Morty has been found...want him back?:)

Originally Posted by paisjpq

Morty was never lost.

Originally Posted by estreetposse

Just incognito?

Originally Posted by miraja2

I tried to read this entire post....but I kept falling asleep.
I will assume that it was just a long-winded apology for giving out TERRIBLE "information" on Street Sense after the Tampa Bay Derby.

Originally Posted by cakes44

Is it okay for me to think that he is just another descendant of Storm Cat that didn't get any better from 2 to 3? Everybody seems to think that just because he's big that he has that much more potential than all the other horses. What has he done in any of his races other than his maiden to justify that?

Originally Posted by todko

The top 5 worked on the CD surface. The top 2 had multiple works. The winner was stabled at CD.

Horses adjust stride to a certain degree to get traction. They adjust stride to get speed or to get distance.

It seems more trainers would work them on the track and give them time on the track so the horse can adjust. Larry Jones was smart enough to do that. Tagg wasn't.

Neither was Todd Pletcher. So much for his call that poly is great to work over but he'd rather race on dirt. If he's going to race on dirt he better give his horses some time on the dirt to adjust. I bet he will next year.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Aside from a few bumps here or there, I thought Nobiz had a dream setup in the Derby and simply proved he wasn't good enough.

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

His Remsen was a really nice race at 9f. Nobiz at 2yo in the Remsen -Better than anything he or Scat Daddy has done at 9f since.

Then they went to the Holy Bull (mile).
Wasn't a ton of pace so C Vel takes Nobiz to the front and wires the field.
Wasn't necessarily a terrible decision... the pace numbers looked ok, he didn't go too fast early, he still came home at the mile distance pretty fast...

Then they go to the FOY(9f)

Stormello "breaks like a quarter horse" , and sets an impossible pace. Nobiz's Remsen form would have had him well off the pace and crushing the rabbit in the stretch. Yet instead of that nice style , Nobiz chases the pace. Nobiz gets sucked right into Stormello's rabid pace. No style he tires in the stretch he runs crazy trying to keep that pace...

Now the quick "fix" in time for the derby rush
Blinkers (move him up even MORE????)



They just need to get Nobiz back to his Remsen form and they have a top horse. Good stamina in the pedigree, hes a great animal physically. What he is not is a sprinter, and he is not a wire-to-wire type.

How does Tagg win all these turf races and he has Nobiz so screwed up from where he was at 2? Or is Nobiz really that rank that he doesn't rate at all anymore?

Originally Posted by estreetposse

Blinkers, cotton, whatever else can't seem to get this horse to run well...I know he didn't really ship in the Wood...do you think this also is a problem for him? Shouldn't Tagg have brought him in a week or two sooner to try and get him used to the enviroment and/or crowds?
I think if this horse can get his head out of his a$$, he could be sitting on top very soon.

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Not a huge fan of bris pace numbers but they tell the general story here.
Holy Bull was only 8f so it was deceptive. Also his pace was a tiny bit harder in the FOY and he came Home better than just 1 point in the Wood , but basically yes. He went from a router to a miler somewhere between the Remsen and now. His pedigree says the Belmont would be no problem, so its physical or a style issue or the horse is just untrainable...

E1 E2 .Late Pace
98 113 86 WOOD
96 110 85 FOY
85 99 104 HOLY BULL
85 91 98 REMSEN

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Since you posted those, I'll just add that its those late pace numbers in his two turn routes that made me consider him a toss-out for the derby. The only quality number was at the one turn distance. The Derby winner should show something strong in the late pace number when going 9F, as well as overall speed. The Remson was okay for 2yo's, but not overpowering. It was acheived only because of softer numbers on the first two calls.

FYI, I am a huge fan of bris numbers for this reason.