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Except for the fact he was never, ever going to win the Belmont.
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Giacomo had the lead, and was in hand, after 10 furlongs in the Belmont---it was really the only time in his career when he let off the bit in the stretch, and horses passed him....something seemed amiss, and after surgery, he wouldn't run for another nine months. Had he won the Preakness via tragedy, everyone would have said that the "racing Gods" stopped him at the 1/4 pole in the Belmont...as he would have been horrendously unworthy. |
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If they both skip the Preakness---Chelokee will be the second choice in the betting---and that would be a very sad day for racing. |
You are overlooking the most obvious, and best challenger, outside of Hard Spun. That would be Any Given Saturday, who had no chance whatsoever yesterday.
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"Right now, I'd have to say that none of these five would go to the Preakness. We've been training King of the Roxy (Littleexpectations) for that race and he's our horse for it." |
I guess the Preakness isn't very important to him.
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I know his two Derby 2nd place finishers (Invisible Ink and Bluegrass Cat) passed on it....as did Flower Alley, who ran a sneaky good race in the Derby...and who I was leaning to betting on in the Preakness after watching film of the Derby,
I still have only seen the Derby replay via NBC's feed....I have no idea what happened, trip-wise, to many of the horses. I'd like to see an iso replay of what happened with Curlin and AGS especially. They both appeared to find themselves in a difficult spot at key points in the race....but they were so soundly beaten, the latter especially. |
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I agree AGS is a bit of a stretch, but he had so little chance and such a tough trip, there was little point in even trying late. He ran as well as Curlin in my opinion. If you reverse post positions with Hard Spun, they may very well finish in reverse positions.
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It's a weak group. Maybe he'll be another Seattle Slew and win it in a weak year.
I would look at a rested well bred horse beating him in the Belmont. For SS to run back in 2 weeks and then again in 3 weeks after the way he's been babied . . . lots of questions. Maybe Tiago? |
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I hit the SUBMIT button twice by accident. Now...if you have a beef with that then my apologies. I certainly didn't mean to bore anyone. When a public handicapper nails the exacta in the Kentucky Derby it's an accomplishment. Now you need to get over this little rise in your drawers you are getting from nitpicking everything Me, hoffy, and Estreet say. |
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HS ran a tremendous race yesterday, maybe one of the best losing Derby efforts since Congaree. It was really impressive and I was dead wrong about him, I used him on the bottom of a small saver exacta, but I totally threw him out for all other purposes.
I think he's gutted, he didn't have a work for 19 days after the Lanes End and had a six week break before the Derby. I would say that was a bigger effort yesterday and he's only going to be coming back after 2 weeks. I think he will take alot of money in the Preakness and I don't see him as having much of a chance. |
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We were pretty close to seeing another PA bred win too! LOL |
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Street Sense certeinly COULD win the Triple Crown, but (as always) it will be a tall order.
Isn't it possible that sometime CB will try to make a ride like that, and the rail gets shut off? His ride today was unbelievable, but you still need to get a little lucky to pull something like that off. I assume CB will at least attempt similiar tactics in his next races on this horse (why wouldn't he?) and while it is a great strategy if things go his way, I would hardly hand this colt the next two classics at this point. It would, however, be great to see. |
Curlin and Hard Spin both showed that they are the real deal. Expect them to improve. Triple Crown is just too much to ask of SS, let him skip the two other races and get ready for the breeders cup.
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What about the non-Derby horses? Last year we had Bernardini, a very talented horse that skipped the Derby and was targeted towards the Preakness. That kind of fresh horse could have an advantage over many of the Derby contenders. Maybe it's just speculation at this point, but what non-Derby horses do you think could be strong contenders in the Preakness?
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DrugS,
I thought AGS got a great trip considering his starting post. He got over about as cleanly as could be expected, and was a clear third late in the race. He didn't get the Moses-like trip of Street Sense (who did, or ever does?), but for a 20 horse Derby, it was relatively clean. The hit he took coming out of the turn was not that big of a deal, I thought. |
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sweet |
In 3 of his last 4 races, Street Sense has had the absolute perfect trip. Fast paces to aid his closing run, and saved every inch of ground. Sooner or later, that rail trip isn't going to be available. And Pimlico is not the place to try to circle 4 wide.
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If the Derby's top 3 go to Pimlico, it sets up to be a great race. Nobody is talking about a Bernardini-type waiting. As much as I like him, Chelokee may not be up to it. I hope I'm wrong. If Street Sense can win the Preakness, I think he has a very good chance in the Belmont.
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If Street Sense win the Preakness then we have to think that he got a serious shot to win the triple crown. he running style and Calvin Borel riding fit the Belmont stake perfectly.
To me will be very especial because my house is just couple blocks away from Belmont park and have a chance to be part of the history as my father did when he saw Secretariat win the Triple Crown will be very especial. |
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