Well, the 13 looks like a definite toss.

Curlin should take the 2 and use some speed early to get position in the second flight, I don't think this would take very much out of him....

And to the point trying to be made about being "frail".... Look, any horse could get bumped around at the start and have position compromised. It's not a quality of the horse and Curlin certainly hasn't shown the characteristics of a quitter!!

I have always felt that it would be more fair to use another system, not a random order draw. They have strict rules to follow to get into the race, governed by the graded stakes earnings. But once you're in when it comes to the post position its just totally random order.

If it were me I would have two tiers. The top ten money earners would participate in a random draw for the first 10 post positions.

Then the bottom ten money earners would select in random order for the remaining ten positions.

Any system that allows Storminmay to choose first has to be changed imo.

Fair enough, but he has never been put in a situation to where he would throw in the towel. He has had weal fields and everything his own way. The horse is good and I loved him ever since he broke his maiden at Gulfstream. I was so sad to see the horse taken from Pitts but in this race, I dont think he shows.

I don't see why it should be different than any other race. This is favoritism, plain and simple...They all pay the same entry fee right?

I liked SNS last year and was really pleased when he got post 11 I believe.
All that was for naught however because within 50 yards he got cracked from the outside and was pushed in several pathes.

Its a bit of a crapshoot with regard to how cleanly your horse comes through the first turn no matter where they draw.

That's the truth of the matter.

I disagree. Why should it matter what post Storm in May chooses? If the favorite is such a great horse, he should win regardless, right? Do you really think the best position (which is what, by the way?) is going to give Storm in May a chance to win? Nah...

This is the fairest way of doing it IMO.

Because its not like any other race since it has twenty postions.
One year when there is a big favorite that is a real popular fan favorite that draws pp 20, then you're going to see people squealing for change.

I want to find the owner of a real contender who draws pp 20 who is not bitter and likes his chances.

Certainly not great news for AGS...we'll see how things fall tonight.

1, 19 or 20 seem to the logical landing spots.

Total earnings: 2 and 3 year old seasons, graded stakes races only....

$685,321

Cost of travel, stable and board, jockey fees, trainer fees, vet bills, medical expenses and entry fees...

$132,589

Purchase price at yearling sale, exclusive of agent's commission...

$450,000

Finding out you're getting the 19 post because Storm in May draw a better ping pong ball then you....

Priceless.

In a regular race, yes. In a 20 horse scrum, it's not quite so easy to state that.

Plus, if Kaplan is smart, the Derby's already in the bag since we all know that the winner comes out of 9 this year.

no it doesn't matter where Storm In May starts, and there is no one exact best post. However there are some that are nearly impossible in my view.

You would have no issues with Scat Daddy in PP20, and view his chances as just the same as any other pp?

I just think its not like other races because of trying to push so many horses through the same space.

I would be all for the total random system up to a point, but 20 horses is ridiculous.

No it really isn't...any horse in any position can encounter problems that is true but the chances are greatly increased inside at CD...stand in the starting gate in post position #1 and look straight ahead...you'll see the inside rail...because of the track layout, inside horses will be squeezed and this will make for considerable bumping and many horses lose the race in the run to the first turn....the last winner from pp#1 was Ferdinand with the great Shoe aboard...he was a dead closer and the Shoe dropped him back and threaded the needle like only one of the all-time greats could do!

ArlJim,

We all know the "real" solution is a track and field style start with the outside being progressively closer to the finish line :p

Has anybody ever won from the 19-20 hole ?

HAHA, now that would be cool.:rolleyes:

So, I see, no one else is capable of doing this ever again... fair enough.

Yes

I think Hard Spun; Street Sense or Scat Daddy will be in the 9 hole Cajun. :)

Of course I'd have an issue, but the reality is is that each of these horses is in the gate because they (supposedly) deserve to be there. It's only fair that it's a random drawing... perhaps they should all just take their ball and go home since Street Sense and Scat are the highest in earnings.

All 3 are on my tickets regardless. I will be a happy camper if one of them ends up there. :)

You have reading comprehension problems I see...don't attempt to belittle my intelligence by putting words in my mouth...there are no absolutes in racing, certainly not in the Derby...every one of the 20 horses entered CAN win, a horse CAN win from any post position...the point I make is that it has proven to be extremely difficult from the three inside positions...if Curlin is the horse some think he is, he will win from anywhere...hell, the way some talk, he would win starting from his stall!

So who said more winners have come from pp1 than any other?

Is this true, anyone know?

I'll let you know in a second...

So pp2 is not such a bad post after all

1 either for that matter, I assume that's the 2nd highest overall?

Since there are 20 horses you've got some that have 10-15 times the graded earnings as the ones that just manage to scoot by on the bottom of the list. Yet they are all treated equally for the pp draw?

I just think its unfair that a horse like Storm In May, a horse that should be more than 100/1 to win the race, should chose in front of the top money earners. And by the same token I think it would have been unfair if Street Sense, the most qualfied horse to run in the race accoring to the earnings, would have had the misfortune of drawing 20th.

Do those numbers include the days pre-starting gate?

it's a damn shame horses like Storm in May and Teuflesberg are gonna be taking away the best PP's from actual contenders

-bt-

There are others on the other extreme that talk like he has almost no chance whatsoever based simply on the fact he didn't race at 2.

I couldnt agree more..When i first seen that Dominican and AGS are picking where they are I was like WTF..I cant catch a break, unless its a broken arm or leg..

can one of you tell me who was the last winner to come from the last box.

Those numbers are completely misleading as the inside posts were dominant early in Derby history but since the reconfiguration of the track, the inside has been considered "death" by horsemen. As stated earlier, Ferdinand won in 86 from the #1 post, before that was Chateaugay in 1963. Regarding the outside, Gato Del Sol won from the 18 in 1982 and the gelding Clyde Van Dusen won from the 20 in 1929.

Monarchos was second from the outside...right? I know, it's not outside, but...who cares. :)

Nobody's ever won from 19 I don't believe.

My question is, back in the old days with the flying start, it seemed like post position was less of an issue than a great start.

Not me... I'm more concerned with only 3 races total and all grouped in a short period facing questionable competition. He has a chance but I'll not bet him...that's far from saying he has almost no chance.

winning posts
 

1929 Clyde Van Dusen 20
1982 Gato Del Sol 18
1995 Thunder Gulch 16
1999 Charismatic 16
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 15
1996 Grindstone 15