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-   -   Time Squared, can he upset the bluegrass ? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11866)

ArlJim78 04-11-2007 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
To the SHED..

You have too much time on your hands....

I did it for your benefit too!

johnny pinwheel 04-11-2007 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I am not trying to make you look bad....you are doing that by yourself. I am just pointing out the silliness of picking a horse like Time Squared, as I did when you picked Raceland a few weeks ago at Aqueduct, as it is either a desperate cry for attention or a dangerously poor opinion.

don't forget about his "tout" on discreet cat at a ridiculous 1-1, then he had the bravery or stupidity to say it was the biggest loss he ever had in 1 day. wise guy, its people like that i love. overbet the horse thats the greatest thing that never ran. i've seen those types come and go for years.

POINTGIVEN1985 04-11-2007 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel
don't forget about his "tout" on discreet cat at a ridiculous 1-1, then he had the bravery or stupidity to say it was the biggest loss he ever had in 1 day. wise guy, its people like that i love. overbet the horse thats the greatest thing that never ran. i've seen those types come and go for years.

so much for me to respond to but i will only take the time to respond to you.




what the does discreet cat have to do with me liking Time Squared ? As for him being even money, was it ridiculous before the race ? i dont think so, alot of ppl thought discreet cat would win, not just me, and i did lose alot on him, i truly belive even money was value on a horse who is normally 3-5, but again what does any of that have to do with me saying i like Time Squared ? I do like him i will be betting him win and place, and playing a pick 4 using him and the 2 favorites in the bluegrass, but once again what does any of what you said have to do with this thread about Time Squared?

ArlJim78 04-11-2007 09:56 PM

another tidbit for those that are going to put Time Squared on top in the Blue Grass. He wasn't even the fastest maiden winner at Kee last week.

There were two MSW's ran at Keeneland last Friday at 1 1/16 miles.

The first was won by Time Squared in 1:45.68

The second one was won by True Competitor in 1:43.96

I don't know why the True Competitor connections are not planning to run in the Gr1 Blue Grass.

johnny pinwheel 04-12-2007 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
so much for me to respond to but i will only take the time to respond to you.




what the does discreet cat have to do with me liking Time Squared ? As for him being even money, was it ridiculous before the race ? i dont think so, alot of ppl thought discreet cat would win, not just me, and i did lose alot on him, i truly belive even money was value on a horse who is normally 3-5, but again what does any of that have to do with me saying i like Time Squared ? I do like him i will be betting him win and place, and playing a pick 4 using him and the 2 favorites in the bluegrass, but once again what does any of what you said have to do with this thread about Time Squared?

it has alot to do with it. i think you make your choices without common sense analyisis. i guess i'm a different kind of handicapper. its not that you liked discreet cat , its how you bet. for one if i'm going to take 1-1 on ANY horse , he better of been running recently and been the distance. secondly, even if i do favor a horse like that i'm not going to "unload" on it. i'll give you credit if time squared does somehow win you will get a great return, no doubt. i noticed you have also been on the nobiz bandwagon too. again its one of the most obvious picks (like DC was) therefore the price will be short. do you know the difference between an overlay and a underlay ? like i said to you before its fine to be a fan of a horse, i have posters of funnycide but i wouldn't bet him with your money. i take it your young just by the way you post. its not just the horse you like, but if every one else like him too. when risking your cash and putting it on the line one should consider the value of that risk or if the horse even has any shot of winning at all. at least your not playing follow the leader with this time squared choice, so i'll eat crow if he actually wins but i highly doubt it.

Payson Dave 04-12-2007 09:37 AM

I saw the Time Squared maiden win...imo he ran very green in the stretch...the horse may have some talent and while at this time of the year 3yo's can move forward dramatically from one race to the next...it still would be a huge jump forward for him to be a winner in the Blue Grass

Rootdog1 04-12-2007 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
The final coup de gras.


What happend to the topic on ATRAB last night --- If you have a decent horse then RUN THEM. TAKE SHOT.....The GIANT KILLER takes shots.


Now, I agree he has shown nothing to show he can win....but hell, at least they are running him and will prob get a check out of the deal.

blackthroatedwind 04-12-2007 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
What happend to the topic on ATRAB last night --- If you have a decent horse then RUN THEM. TAKE SHOT.....The GIANT KILLER takes shots.


Now, I agree he has shown nothing to show he can win....but hell, at least they are running him and will prob get a check out of the deal.


First of all, I never said Patrick should or shouldn't run this horse, and that is not what I was talking about anyway. I'm talking about people looking for reasons NOT to run horses, i.e. Hard Spun, which is different than not liking an overmatched horse's chances.

Coach Pants 04-12-2007 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
First of all, I never said Patrick should or shouldn't run this horse, and that is not what I was talking about anyway. I'm talking about people looking for reasons NOT to run horses, i.e. Hard Spun, which is different than not liking an overmatched horse's chances.

His owner wears red sport coats.

ArlJim78 04-12-2007 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
What happend to the topic on ATRAB last night --- If you have a decent horse then RUN THEM. TAKE SHOT.....The GIANT KILLER takes shots.


Now, I agree he has shown nothing to show he can win....but hell, at least they are running him and will prob get a check out of the deal.

I don't think any of the discussion here was directed at faulting anyone for taking a shot.

This whole thing was kicked off by someone saying that he can win the race, which as you say seems highly unlikely.

Rootdog1 04-12-2007 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Timed Squared does not belong in the race and its an example of derby fever taking over.

I thought this is what you were agreeing with. It is contrary to what I heard last night, thats all.

I agree that he is in way over his head and his last race was horrible.

blackthroatedwind 04-12-2007 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
I thought this is what you were agreeing with. It is contrary to what I heard last night, thats all.

I agree that he is in way over his head and his last race was horrible.


It's not contrary to what I was talking about last night. The discussion in this thread centers around somebody saying they like Time Squared and I was saying it was a bad selection. How is that the same as " people need to stop finding reasons not to run their horses? "

Plus, it is not as though I am advocating things like the first time starter in the Arkansas Derby, or even every 50-1 or higher filler running in races. I think my actual point is fairly clear, unless someone is trying to cleverly attempt to put words in my mouth, and it has a lot to do with horses like Hard Spun and not no shotters like Time Squared.....who I couldn't care less about whether he is running or not. I just don't recommend betting him. Surely you have heard people at the racetrack say " that horse does not belong with these." or some such comments. Do you always take that to mean the person is against them being in the race?

SniperSB23 04-12-2007 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
What happend to the topic on ATRAB last night --- If you have a decent horse then RUN THEM. TAKE SHOT.....The GIANT KILLER takes shots.


Now, I agree he has shown nothing to show he can win....but hell, at least they are running him and will prob get a check out of the deal.

The big difference is from the owners perspective the horse just has to run top five to cash a check. From a bettors perspective running top five does nothing for you.

Rootdog1 04-12-2007 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It's not contrary to what I was talking about last night. The discussion in this thread centers around somebody saying they like Time Squared and I was saying it was a bad selection. How is that the same as " people need to stop finding reasons not to run their horses? "

Plus, it is not as though I am advocating things like the first time starter in the Arkansas Derby, or even every 50-1 or higher filler running in races. I think my actual point is fairly clear, unless someone is trying to cleverly attempt to put words in my mouth, and it has a lot to do with horses like Hard Spun and not no shotters like Time Squared.....who I couldn't care less about whether he is running or not. I just don't recommend betting him. Surely you have heard people at the racetrack say " that horse does not belong with these." or some such comments. Do you always take that to mean the person is against them being in the race?


I thought you were inferring he shouldnt be running, and that it was irresponsible to run him there and that it was just Derby fever. That is why I asked. I am not putting words in your mouth, if that comment was directed at me.

I agree with you and all others on this issue, he has not shot.

Smooth Operator 04-12-2007 10:33 AM

Leaning toward Street Sense at this point.

Hunter's been away for six weeks now, which could give SS a slight edge in this spot IF he's fully recovered from the Tampa race as his training seemed to suggest. Also, Hunter's clearly not unbeatable with four runner-up finishes in eight starts.

Cajungator26 04-12-2007 10:34 AM

I'm going to watch how the poly runs on Saturday, but I don't think it's impossible for Teuflesberg to wire this field if speed is holding.

blackthroatedwind 04-12-2007 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
I'm going to watch how the poly runs on Saturday, but I don't think it's impossible for Teuflesberg to wire this field if speed is holding.


Speed isn't holding, and while he does have a pace advantage, I highly doubt Dominican will let him too far out of his sights.

ArlJim78 04-12-2007 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
I thought this is what you were agreeing with. It is contrary to what I heard last night, thats all.

I agree that he is in way over his head and his last race was horrible.

root, these are just opinions, yes that is my opinion. I think he is terribly over-matched and I would not run the horse in this spot, and I would not consider betting him in this spot.

I'm not faulting the trainer, or saying I know better. but I am questioning the decision.

sure run the horse, take a shot, it's a free country, try to be like the Giant-killer. that doesn't mean however that I have to agree with everyone that does it.

is it really though in the best interest of the horse to run back on a weeks rest moving from maidens to Gr1? would they do it in any other circumstance other than with the derby looming three weeks away? In my opinion I think not. it looks to me like they have been pushing him this year, they ran him in the Sham as a maiden. I just hope they know what they're doing and don't push him so much that it ends up setting the horse back or worse.

blackthroatedwind 04-12-2007 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
I thought you were inferring he shouldnt be running, and that it was irresponsible to run him there and that it was just Derby fever. That is why I asked. I am not putting words in your mouth, if that comment was directed at me.

I agree with you and all others on this issue, he has not shot.


Patrick Biancone is my friend.....you won't find me calling him irresponsible.

MisterB 04-12-2007 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Patrick Biancone is my friend.....you won't find me calling him irresponsible.


I think His Hong Kong days where quite the thrill too

SentToStud 04-12-2007 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985
ok.....I think he can win because........


like scav said on another thread his race last friday he was in hand the whole trip, he went from last to first and did it easily.

This years three year old crop has not standouts, there are alot of very good horses but no great ones, and i know alot of ppl think the big 2 are in this race but i really do think this race could be ripe for a upset. Street Sense just barley beats Any Given Saturday, and then AGS comes back and runs horrible in the wood, Street Sense also has never won on the poly, as for Great Hunter he beats Sam P last time, but Sam p was getting to him late Sam P is the beaten favorite in the Santa Anita Derby where he is defeated by a maiden winner in Tiago.

Also the big 2 have bigger fish to fry there main goals are winning the Kentucky Derby, not running huge in the bluegrass 3 weeks out and having nothing left for kentucky, on the other hand Time Squared has to run 1-2 to even make it to the derby, which has to be the goal considering they are running him here to try and get the graded earnings.

You hang in there PG.

In fairness, I've seen a lot less sound reasoning for taking a stand against what's going to be a short priced favorite and a fairly short second favorite.

Whether PG is landing on the right one to take a shot with is another question.

But at least he shows some imagination looking at the race and throwing conventional wisdom out. That's how you should handicap.

According to everyone posting here, PG is the only person in the world who bet Discreet Cat. If Street Sense gets beat, no one here will admit to betting or singling him either.

brianwspencer 04-12-2007 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
According to everyone posting here, PG is the only person in the world who bet Discreet Cat. If Street Sense gets beat, no one here will admit to betting or singling him either.

I won't have bet either.

ArlJim78 04-12-2007 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
According to everyone posting here, PG is the only person in the world who bet Discreet Cat. If Street Sense gets beat, no one here will admit to betting or singling him either.

Only one person on this thread mentioned mentioned Discreet Cat.

POINTGIVEN1985 04-12-2007 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Only one person on this thread mentioned mentioned Discreet Cat.

the person who mentioned it is a fool it had nothing to do with me liking this horse.

SentToStud 04-12-2007 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer
I won't have bet either.

Like you, I didn't/won't bet Discreet Cat or Street Sense. Then again, I didn't bet Tiago either, much less thought he had a solid shot.

To me, PG posting he likes a horse for whatever reason is FAR more interesting than the Johnny Pinwheels of the world coming on to boast after the race that Discreet Cat was a throwout and that people that liked him are good for his pocketbook.

I suppose Johnny and his crew also singled DC in his wins and scored big there as well.

Anyone posting about who is crying for attention or is otherwise defective should look away from the PGs of the board and toward the fools who never offer an opinion much less a reason for their opinion before the race is run, claim a losing favorite was a lousy chalk thirty minutes after the race and, of course, how they changed their life hitting a $13 Exacta as a result.

Really, any one of the above three alone are grounds for a good beating. Johnny, of course, manages to do all three. Very poorly.

SentToStud 04-12-2007 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Only one person on this thread mentioned mentioned Discreet Cat.

C'mon AJim, nobody else used the horse? About 50% of the Exacta pool included him. Hell, someone bet the horse.

ArlJim78 04-12-2007 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
C'mon AJim, nobody else used the horse? About 50% of the Exacta pool included him. Hell, someone bet the horse.

Why are you asking about who had the exacta with Discreet Cat?
what does that have to do with anything on this thread? like I said one person brought up Discreet Cat. I thought this thread was about the chances of Time Squared this weekend.

Of course Discreet Cat was hammered by many. Not me however!:D

For the record I don't know how I'll play the Bluegrass yet, need to do more study. I do know TS won't be on top of any of my tickets.

POINTGIVEN1985 04-12-2007 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
Like you, I didn't/won't bet Discreet Cat or Street Sense. Then again, I didn't bet Tiago either, much less thought he had a solid shot.

To me, PG posting he likes a horse for whatever reason is FAR more interesting than the Johnny Pinwheels of the world coming on to boast after the race that Discreet Cat was a throwout and that people that liked him are good for his pocketbook.

I suppose Johnny and his crew also singled DC in his wins and scored big there as well.

Anyone posting about who is crying for attention or is otherwise defective should look away from the PGs of the board and toward the fools who never offer an opinion much less a reason for their opinion before the race is run, claim a losing favorite was a lousy chalk thirty minutes after the race and, of course, how they changed their life hitting a $13 Exacta as a result.

Really, any one of the above three alone are grounds for a good beating. Johnny, of course, manages to do all three. Very poorly.


Thank you and i really appreciate you defending me.

johnny pinwheel 04-12-2007 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
Like you, I didn't/won't bet Discreet Cat or Street Sense. Then again, I didn't bet Tiago either, much less thought he had a solid shot.

To me, PG posting he likes a horse for whatever reason is FAR more interesting than the Johnny Pinwheels of the world coming on to boast after the race that Discreet Cat was a throwout and that people that liked him are good for his pocketbook.

I suppose Johnny and his crew also singled DC in his wins and scored big there as well.

Anyone posting about who is crying for attention or is otherwise defective should look away from the PGs of the board and toward the fools who never offer an opinion much less a reason for their opinion before the race is run, claim a losing favorite was a lousy chalk thirty minutes after the race and, of course, how they changed their life hitting a $13 Exacta as a result.

Really, any one of the above three alone are grounds for a good beating. Johnny, of course, manages to do all three. Very poorly.

no you miss the point. the only reason i got on his back was because he said it was the biggest bet of his life. sure alot of folks liked that horse, but not many smart people hammered him was all i said. no the 13 dollar exacta did not change my life but it was there for the taking. both horses made their preps and won, invasor did so miraculuosly at gulfstream. discreet cay missed his (why?) and hadn't run in months, one stakes race in a year. i was just trying to explain why i think the kid makes bad BETTING decisions
not belittling his horse. for one thing i never bet big unless my horse is 5-2 or more , so don't think i'm some chalk eater. why do you think i bet the exacta. i know this thread is about time squared but i was pointing out one of his great bets . its not the only time hes come on here and said i got crushed or i lost it all or something to that effect. common do you really think time squared has any legit shot in this race? i know stranger things have happened ,its gambling. but as one poster already mentioned don't make your picks like throwing sh1t at the wall and hope they stick. that what i think he does at times and then comes on here crying about how much he got killed over the weekend. by the way buddy i said DC was a play against long before the race. go look it up , i also predicted the exacta straight up. you can't get over the fact that the horse was NOT ready to win. under dubai world cup selections,hicory hill, i posted 3-31 at 9:37 am. before i went to the track. so don't accuse me of bsing with picks after the race like some of the fools do here. plus if i did why would i brag about a 13 dollar exacta you idiot .

POINTGIVEN1985 04-12-2007 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel
no you miss the point. the only reason i got on his back was because he said it was the biggest bet of his life. sure alot of folks liked that horse, but not many smart people hammered him was all i said. no the 13 dollar exacta did not change my life but it was there for the taking. both horses made their preps and won, invasor did so miraculuosly at gulfstream. discreet cay missed his (why?) and hadn't run in months, one stakes race in a year. i was just trying to explain why i think the kid makes bad BETTING decisions
not belittling his horse. for one thing i never bet big unless my horse is 5-2 or more , so don't think i'm some chalk eater. why do you think i bet the exacta. i know this thread is about time squared but i was pointing out one of his great bets . its not the only time hes come on here and said i got crushed or i lost it all or something to that effect. common do you really think time squared has any legit shot in this race? i know stranger things have happened ,its gambling. but as one poster already mentioned don't make your picks like throwing sh1t at the wall and hope they stick. that what i think he does at times and then comes on here crying about how much he got killed over the weekend. by the way buddy i said DC was a play against long before the race. go look it up , i also predicted the exacta straight up. you can't get over the fact that the horse was NOT ready to win. under dubai world cup selections,hicory hill, i posted 3-31 at 9:37 am. before i went to the track. so don't accuse me of bsing with picks after the race like some of the fools do here. plus if i did why would i brag about a 13 dollar exacta you idiot .


DUDE YOUR REAL CLASSY... you come out of no where and attack me with a bunch of bullshit that had NOTHING to do with the actual thread and now you call him a idiot, who are you ? all you did was jump on me because of what you saw other posters doing, your the classic follower.... you follow what other ppl do, at least i post my picks, and when i lose i defend them and stand up for my picks. to me you are as low as it gets at this place, you attack me out of no where on something from a month ago then you call another guy a idiot.

Cajungator26 04-12-2007 04:18 PM

To answer the original question posed on this thread...

No, I don't think Time Squared can upset the Blue Grass. Good day. :)

Cannon Shell 04-12-2007 04:27 PM

I am rooting for a Time Squared, Love Dubai, Tueflesburg triple

Danzig 04-12-2007 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I am rooting for a Time Squared, Love Dubai, Tueflesburg triple

well...good luck with that! certainly would pay well.

paisjpq 04-12-2007 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I am rooting for a Time Squared, Love Dubai, Tueflesburg triple

easy on Love Dubai please...

Danzig 04-12-2007 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
To answer the original question posed on this thread...

No, I don't think Time Squared can upset the Blue Grass. Good day. :)

oh, we're FINALLY voting?? lol

i do think he CAN--as in anything can happen. but i don't think time squared will upset it.

JDank34 04-12-2007 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I am rooting for a Time Squared, Love Dubai, Tueflesburg triple

I'm with Chuck....and I will parlay all of the tri winnings back on Olympic Chief in the Hot Springs Darbe!!!

miraja2 04-12-2007 10:19 PM

Time Squared's Beyer figs go like this:
86-78-75-67.
He is not exactly moving in the right direction, and even if he reverts back to his debut # he would still be well short of the top horses in this field. His worst figure (the 67) was also his only race on poly. I just don't think he makes sense here at all.
If you think the top 2 are vulnerable (personally I am not convinced of this), why not go with Dominican? He is two-for-two on the poly and his race in the Rushaway was a very professional poly score. He wasn't facing any world-beaters that day to be sure, but it was a field of 10 that he defeated easily with a solid 95 Beyer. His race that day was far more impressive than anything TS has ever done. Clearly he won't be 50/1 or whatever TS goes off at, but given the quality of Great Hunter and Street Sense, he might be a decent price......and he MIGHT actually have a chance!

POINTGIVEN1985 04-12-2007 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Time Squared's Beyer figs go like this:
86-78-75-67.
He is not exactly moving in the right direction, and even if he reverts back to his debut # he would still be well short of the top horses in this field. His worst figure (the 67) was also his only race on poly. I just don't think he makes sense here at all.
If you think the top 2 are vulnerable (personally I am not convinced of this), why not go with Dominican? He is two-for-two on the poly and his race in the Rushaway was a very professional poly score. He wasn't facing any world-beaters that day to be sure, but it was a field of 10 that he defeated easily with a solid 95 Beyer. His race that day was far more impressive than anything TS has ever done. Clearly he won't be 50/1 or whatever TS goes off at, but given the quality of Great Hunter and Street Sense, he might be a decent price......and he MIGHT actually have a chance!

listen i dident say i was unloading on the race or anything like that im going to do something like 15wps on him nothing huge, and use him in the pick 4 just in case, dominican did look very very good, but im not using him in any bet, pick 4 or anything


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