1. Circular Quay
2. Street Sense
3. Great Hunter
4. NoBiz Like Shobiz
5. Rags to Riches

nobizlikeshowbiz
street sense
circular quay
any given saturday
ravel

street sense
Circular Quay
Rags to Riches
Great Hunter
Chelokee

Ravel
Ravel
Ravel
Ravel
Ravel

If the race was today:
1 - 2. Any Given Saturday / Street Sense
3. Great Hunter
4. Circular Quay
5. Curlin


Exacta/tri fillers at a price: Officer Rocket/Delightful Kiss

:) top 5
notional
nobizlikeshobiz
scat daddy
ketchikan
street sense

second five
colbolt blue
any given saturday
circular quay
air commander
great hunter

Circular Quay
Street Sense--as much as i hate to say it
Ravel
Any Given Saturday
Rags to riches

I agree. Loved Bella Belluci and remember Drysdale scratching her day of Alabama as I loved her in that spot. being a Thunder Gulch distance not an issue and I feel if he devlops, Grapelli could be a sleeper to hit the board and be a factor down the road of his 3 YO season. Saturdays race he had no shot in with pace scenario and short field. Give him some pace and a little maturity and he could be a factor

Oh and my top 5 would be

1. NBLS
2. Any Given Saturday
3. Circular Quay
4. Notional
5. Liquidity- Hanging on here but will give him one more chance

As should I, but his run in the LA Derby was awful. I think the talent is definitely there.

My list in order:

1. Circular Quay (This horse is awesome).
2. Notional (So is this one).
3. Ravel (I don't like the fact that he will have only two starts; at least he will have run two 1 1/8 races though)
4. Any Given Saturday (I didn't like his action in the Tampa Bay Derby; he barely made my list)

Sam P. and Cobalt Blue are both improving, so I will be watching them carefully.

I like Great Hunter and Scat Daddy a little bit, and will have to see one more start from them. I will also be watching Adore the Gold and Hard Spun to see what they do, especially Hard Spun because I really don't think that Adore the Gold is good enough.

I don't think Nobiz Like Shobiz is good enough at this point. This horse is going to have to improve.

I will be very surprised in Street Sense is even in the starting gate.

I love both Curlin and Belgravia, but they are too rushed.

Stormello, Liquidity, and that horse that finished second to Circular Quay (I can't spell his name...Ket...; Stromello and Ket...are very good, tough horses though) will get burnt up on the front end. I don't like any others at this point, but will be watching everyone very closely.

What didn't you like about his action? He ran a very good race and literally got beaten by a head bob. He was also closer to the pace than Street Sense was. Just curious...

The way that he moved...It wasn't pretty. He's a good horse though so we will see...

Street Sense also does not move as pretty as he did before the BC Juvy either.

Hmm... I couldn't disagree more. Did you hear this from Joel?

I was there and didn't see anything wrong with the way either one of them moved (and I'm a picky biatch.)

I haven't talked to Joel for a long time. It's been a month or more. Both horses aren't nearly as pretty moving as they were as two year olds. You can pick stuff like this out if you know what you are looking for. Both looked sore to me, especially Street Sense. He doesn't even look like the same horse because he hits the ground so quick now. Any Given Saturday also hits the ground a little quicker than he did as a two year old. He was much more fluid as a younger horse.

Only two horses have a chance to win the Derby. The exacta will be Notional and Circular Quay. Haven't decided the order but they are sure to be 1-2. It's as much a lock as Smarty and Lion Heart were going in in 2004. The sleepers are Curlin, Rags to Riches, and Scat Daddy. No others matter.

The Tampa Derby was a nice race. But I predict that it was so hard on those two that one or both will be out of the Derby. I believe one will be knocked out before the Derby and the other will be done for the year before the summer is over. Neither of these two horses finishes the summer.

LMFAO...

We were in the paddock right in front of both of them and NEITHER one looked sore in the slightest bit.

I was just curious if you'd heard this from Joel because I know he was there on Saturday, and I was curious as to how you were so certain both horses were sore since you weren't there. I thought maybe he had seen something and told you.

I also have a pretty good eye for sore horses (although I'm no expert on thoroughbreds) and if there had been something that stood out, I probably would have noticed.

Keep it coming people. The inside information and predictions being put up on this thread is absolutely priceless. This is one for the archives I'm sure.

im sorry to tell you LIquidity isnt the caliber horse you think he is, he will end up in the high level socal allowance races, and occasionally hit the board in grade 3's and possibly eek out a non graded stakes win down the road

I have no predictions and no inside info... I was just stating what I thought about those two horses. I am definitely no expert and have no desire to proclaim to be one, but IMO, neither colt looked sore.

LMFAO!!! Don't make me laugh, Jerry. Please... I'm begging you. :D

LOL WHAT? are you happy now I mushed the horse into winning the Big Cap next year..lol

Heck yeah... you've put the good curse on him. Ha!!! :D

I actually like him a lot... I think he's very talented, but that doesn't mean anything if he can't utilize that talent. We'll see how he does in his next start.

Not all horses who are sore will walk sore. Bute hides a lot of things. Sometimes it requires a jog, a canter, or even a gallop to pick it out, or a good feel of the legs.

That's why the people that I am associated with feel the horse's legs at the two year old sales. They can't tell everything by watching them walk or just by looking at their legs. We saw some that walked sore at a recent sale while we were pulling them out and looking at them, and some of the others who didn't walk sore had something majorly wrong with them like a bad tendon or suspensory when their legs were felt upon.

Street Sense definitely does not move as pretty as he did as a two year old, and I have never been a fan of the way Any Given Saturday moves, but it is not as fluid as it was when he was a two year old.

1) Street Sense - that performance Saturday was better than people think.
2) Any Given Saturday
3) Great Hunter
4) Ravel
5) Scat Daddy

Sleepers
1) Mister White Socks
2) Saint Paul
3) Bold Start
4) Bwana Bull
5) Rags To Riches

Only reason Nobiz is left off is that I do not like the fact that the trainer is going to add blinkers at this stage of the game. I think he does need blinkers but I think it is too late for the horse in order to win the Derby.

Well obviously, Jessica... I'm not a complete idiot. How about this... as the two of them were coming around the far turn and thundering down the stretch, neither one of them looked sore or appeared to be hitting the ground any harder than the rest of the field and the rest of the horses that ran all day at Tampa. In fact, the only horse that was even in the same ball park as those two in the warm-up was that grey gelding, Delightful Kiss (who finished 3rd, no surprise there.)

Have you seen these horses in the flesh? Are you willing to admit that you can't tell a lot without having been around them?

Bold Start had a very nice work the day before yesterday. :cool:

He's not the best of his crop, but I think that he is a better horse than what you have suggested. The thing that I don't like about this horse is that he has lost two head to head battles. He is better than he showed in his last start though because he didn't fire. I just hope that he came out of the race okay.

I don't have a top 5 and i'm not going to have a top 5 until derby week but I do agree with KRIM that Street Sense and Any Given Saturday might need some tough actin Tinactin.

According to O'Neill he blames himself partyly for poor Louisiana effort. Not sure what to make of that. Needs to run well in SA derby or i fall off bandwagon at least as far as Derby goes.

Do you think they both have jock itch? :eek:

Excuse me? I know what Tinactin is and it's for sore horses. The people I work for told me so. And after watching the race on TV I am certain that those two horses have a case of the shingles. Hmmph.

I am judging each individual horse's movement. I'm comparing them to an ideal. Delightful Kiss is a much better moving horse than either one of those horses even though he isn't nearly as fast as them. And I completely disagree with you about neither one of them looking sore as they were thundering down the stretch. It isn't just about how hard that they are hitting the ground either. It is how they are moving...length of stride, suspension phase, power, knee action, rhythm...etc. etc.

I have seen Street Sense in the flesh, but not recently. I haven't seen Any Given Saturday in the flesh. I can tell an enourmous amount about a horse by watching videos of the horses without even being around them. It ties into why they make videos of the horses at the two year old sales. It also ties into being a handicapper. I get more from watching the horses on the videos than I get from watching them in real life. However, I also can tell a lot about the way a horse is traveling in real life, as well as on video. For example, it is pretty easy for me to tell if a horse is sore when I am watching them work on the track in the mornings. However, I do much better at judging their actual movement (like length of stride and power) from a video when they are breezing or galloping just because my eyesight isn't that great and their legs look like a blur to me. For example, when I am watching a two year old on video, I often times pause or put the tape in slow motion to see if the horse is cross-firing, how smoothly the horse switches leads, how far the horse is getting his front legs out in front of him, how long the suspension phase is, how hard they hit the ground, how far they are getting their hocks up underneath them...etc.

I second this. There is some GREAT stuff in this thread.

In case the newest board genius cares, one of the major differences between very good horses and the general mediocrities is the good ones run through their myriad of physical difficulties. The newest expert, who reguritates whatever information her latest infatuation dispells, and is apparantly so good at identifying physical issues she can supposedly do it while watching TV, has virtually locked up the Street Sense - Any Given Saturday exacta in early May.

For THAT, and the laughs, I thank you.

I always thought that if I was an expert horse person like yourself, that I could use that knowledge to predict how a horse would run on a given day. Now I'm realizing that it is a complete waste of time.

Any Given Saturday ran his best race to date. Street Sense ran not as good as his juvenile race but NO ONE expected that he would repeat that effort first off the layoff so his performance is perfectly in line with his previous high standards. They both achieved very nice 101 beyers and equaled the track record. And all this was done while they were sore and did not have the pretty strides that they had last year. I'm also kinda shocked that two training icons could have done such a poor job not maintaining the horses pretty two year old stride, and allowing plainly obvious sore horses to compete.

The whole thing is quite perplexing, why wouldn't the soreness and lack of stride fluidity show up in the actual performance?

Don't you use binoculars? I find that it makes it easier to view them when you are...

I know that y'all are familiar with the late Bonnie Ledbetter.

God, she shows up here at DerbyTrail, reincarnated. In the flesh. Who'd a thought!!

I hope that you hire yourself out for the sales Roses, because folks like Michael Tabor and the Maktoums pay big money for that wealth of knowledge you have.

Ohhhhhh my!!

It really is a crime to see this kind of talent go to waste.

It did show up in the actual performance. Not in terms of how hard the horses ran, but in terms of how they looked. However, as BTW pointed out, a good horse can run through their physical problems. It does not mean that the horse is going to last. It also means that I won't bet on races where favorites like these are running. You don't know if they are going to break down or win by open lengths. Besides, I always stay away from favorites anyway. I don't like to bet anything that is under 3-1.

Good trainers run sore horses all of the time. Bobby Frankel ran Empire Maker in the Derby didn't he? Badge of Silver was sore as he could be while working at Churchill Downs before the BC too. He finished in the money. What about BG Cat? Front wraps for the first time and then he all of a sudden has a broken leg after the race?

I actually gave Street Sense a good shot to win. My outlook on everything was that they were just trying to squeeze a few more races out of him and that he would probably be good for a few more starts.