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-   -   "Inside" information & misguided public? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10757)

Linny 03-12-2007 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan
Well you should have shared with us loyal DTers. We all like 35-1. It wouldn't have made it worse than 32-1 if you had shared. Thanks.

I was the one with the friend with the 35-1 shot. I sat at a table with her, going over the races and she didn't say a word to me until the horse was 2 lengths in front! She didn't give him to me!

Thoroughbred Fan 03-12-2007 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny
I was the one with the friend with the 35-1 shot. I sat at a table with her, going over the races and she didn't say a word to me until the horse was 2 lengths in front! She didn't give him to me!

That is when you accidentally spill your drink on her.

Linny 03-12-2007 08:34 AM

The drink she bought me? Her boss was with us and I'd never met him before, so I didn't want to appear to be a horribly vicious beotch. I did get some measure of revenge when I talked her into playing Pavo.:rolleyes:
I really don't care, I had an OK day. She was rolling though, had the tri cold in the Gotham for $220 on a $2 bet.

Danzig 03-12-2007 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I will tell you a story....

On December 31st 1994 I had the flu. I was so sick that I couldn't get out of bed. As you probably know the entire Pick-6 pool has to be distributed on the last day of every meet as well as the final day of the year. There was also a carryover going into the day. As it happened I liked a Pat Kelly horse quite a bit that day named Unction. I made a pretty good bet on him, as well as the 8th winner, a shipper I believe named Double Calvados ( or something like that ) I also played a small Pick-3 into the horse. Because I was sick, and the races weren't yet on TV, I couldn't watch, and fell asleep. When I got up, I found out that Unction, who was in the second leg of the Pick-6, paid $57 and Double Calvados won the feature ( 4 or 5 to 1 ) and I hit the Pick-3 on a small 2 x 3 x 1 play. I made a bunch of money, but when I started to get a clearer head, I realized a Kimmel firster, at 2-1 ( and this was when he really used to win with firsters ), won one of the other legs of the Pick-6 and a Jolley maiden ( when he used to win ) won the other leg at 2-1 and the Pick-6 paid around $55K. I played the Pick-6 frequently then, and there was really little doubt, at least to me, that I would have hit it. But, hey, that's the way it goes.

However, the next day I found out that someone I knew had hit it. Now, that's cool. But then I found out that he only hit it because one of my few friends I had told about Unction told him I really liked the horse, so he threw him in.

It didn't make me feel better considering the entire situation. It was one thing for me to have been out of action but it was another to hear that someone else won the money I felt I could easily have had because of me. Nothing against the guy that won, I'm happy for him, but I also decided that I would do whatever I could not to let something like that happen again. So, unless I am being paid for my selections, i.e. doing handicapping shows, you'll have to excuse me if I am frugal with my opinion.


i don't suppose you use the phrase bah humbug often?

blackthroatedwind 03-12-2007 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan
Fair enough. I thought this was a place for sharing opinions. You can do as you wish.


Gee, thanks for your permission. What a great relief to me.

10 pnt move up 03-12-2007 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Yeah, Bush was definitely better with firsters in the past. He's certainly more than capable with firsters and his current stats are definitely misleading.

The money that horse took, however, superceded everything else. If Tommy Walsh can win a 2YO maiden race on Traver's Day, the 10-1 Ommedon, then anything is possible. That horse may have been the livest double digit firster of all time.

why do i remember that race?

10 pnt move up 03-12-2007 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
And, by the way, most of these " brilliant " opinions of mine lose.

i agree, but of course mine lose a heck of a lot more

Grits 03-12-2007 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linny
I was the one with the friend with the 35-1 shot. I sat at a table with her, going over the races and she didn't say a word to me until the horse was 2 lengths in front! She didn't give him to me!

Linnny, first off, I hate to break this to you, but I will. This woman is not your friend, you may think she is, but she is NOT. Friends don't do this to those they care about.

Does your friend know how to handicap a horse race?
Does your friend know how to read a DRF?
Does your friend wager on horseracing on a frequent basis?

If SHE DOES NOT, well then--she simply LIKED a 35/1 shot without a knowledgable handicapping opinion. That happens everyday and people cash in such a manner, but they don't cash for long.

In other words, liking a horse is far removed from liking and backing him with one's wager. And there is nothing more tiring than someone sounding off, after the horses cross the wire.

I'd have asked my server to bring me a double. And that's the last time I'd be seen with her.

10 pnt move up 03-12-2007 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan
Fair enough. I thought this was a place for sharing opinions. You can do as you wish.


why should blackthroatedwind, or anyone do all the extensive work for a message board to gravy train off it?

I dont think the majority of people fully grasp the level of effort we are talking about.

Payson Dave 03-12-2007 09:29 AM

Just Wondering...Is Freddie Bond still clocking at Gulfstream?...now there is a character...What about old man Cole...the crankiest SOB to ever clock at Saratoga.

Antitrust32 03-12-2007 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
why should nofool, or anyone do all the extensive work for a message board to gravy train off it?

I dont think the majority of people fully grasp the level of effort we are talking about.

oh i understand that this is BTW's business and he shouldn't give away his selections without being paid for them. I also feel that way towards Steve Byk's predic's. When you're in it for a living, you must get your share!

With that said, some one can give me a horse to bet, and if I bet it it will lose. The only person who has given me winners consistantly is a guy Nick Martinez (artist/former jockey) who is at the toga meet. They are ususally in the range from 2-1 to 5-1, but still - a profit is a profit.

Also, Mr Byk gives out winners every day (and nice exotics) yet I just seem to bet the wrong races and the wrong way. I think its because I am 24, poor and dont bankroll correctly. Its also just entertainment for me.. yet I do need to stop going to the track when I can't afford entertainment. I dont know, maybe its just Gulfstream, because I didnt do bad at Toga last year. I need to stick to my guns and only bet Pletcher horses!

Antitrust32 03-12-2007 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
There's probably a bigger correlation between being good at the track and sucking at life. Trust me.......I have experience.


yea, i think you're on to something there.
:p

maybe that can be the next study after place vs exacta

Thoroughbred Fan 03-12-2007 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Gee, thanks for your permission. What a great relief to me.

You are welcome.

Cajungator26 03-12-2007 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
oh i understand that this is BTW's business and he shouldn't give away his selections without being paid for them. I also feel that way towards Steve Byk's predic's. When you're in it for a living, you must get your share!

With that said, some one can give me a horse to bet, and if I bet it it will lose. The only person who has given me winners consistantly is a guy Nick Martinez (artist/former jockey) who is at the toga meet. They are ususally in the range from 2-1 to 5-1, but still - a profit is a profit.

Also, Mr Byk gives out winners every day (and nice exotics) yet I just seem to bet the wrong races and the wrong way. I think its because I am 24, poor and dont bankroll correctly. Its also just entertainment for me.. yet I do need to stop going to the track when I can't afford entertainment. I dont know, maybe its just Gulfstream, because I didnt do bad at Toga last year. I need to stick to my guns and only bet Pletcher horses!

LMAO...

I'm giving up my habit of paddock picking the horses... my opinion officially sucks.

Cajungator26 03-12-2007 09:46 AM

Why is everyone on Andy's case this morning? Cut the guy a break... thank God that some people can pick some nice winners. I sure as hell couldn't manage that this weekend. :eek:

Payson Dave 03-12-2007 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
What exactly does this mean?

My guess is that it was not meant as a compliment...:p

Linny 03-12-2007 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grits
Linnny, first off, I hate to break this to you, but I will. This woman is not your friend, you may think she is, but she is NOT. Friends don't do this to those they care about.

Does your friend know how to handicap a horse race?
Does your friend know how to read a DRF?
Does your friend wager on horseracing on a frequent basis?

If SHE DOES NOT, well then--she simply LIKED a 35/1 shot without a knowledgable handicapping opinion. That happens everyday and people cash in such a manner, but they don't cash for long.

In other words, liking a horse is far removed from liking and backing him with one's wager. And there is nothing more tiring than someone sounding off, after the horses cross the wire.

I'd have asked my server to bring me a double. And that's the last time I'd be seen with her.

This girl can handicap, she works at the track and knows racing. I'm not mad that she didn't mention the horse. I hated the race. In fact I think she got screwed because I think that horse was second, alone not in a DH. She did bet him, she had $10 across on him so she made some money but would have done better w/out the DH.

As an aside in Andy's defense, when you get paid to select horses whether in the paper or on TV or radio you want to give out the best horses at the best prices. When the same 'capper is playing the racing himself on a day when he has NOT made public selections, he's not obligated to share his opinions. Also a public 'capper usually has to select a 1-2-3 in each race. When he hits a P3 or P4 going 5 deep can the public say he "withheld" information or a horse? No! he went 5 deep for cripes sakes. if people within the industry "know" something about a horse and profit, fine. More often their knowledge costs them money.
Figuring out trainer intent is part of the game. The router returning in a sprint, the turfer returning on dirt are bad bets that get played every day at every track. Firsters have a lot of surprises. Often they surprise their trainers too.

Grits 03-12-2007 10:14 AM

Linny, you defend Andy well. AND, you have more knowledge than your friend, tell her to stop betting place and show.

ArlJim78 03-12-2007 10:21 AM

I personally can not believe that people on here feel that Andy has some duty to dole out his plays when he thinks there might be a nice one. I would have less repsect for him if he did that. You know what, he has had to work hard and I'm sure pay a price to be in a position to find these nice nuggets sometimes. Good for him. Do you really think that they come in all the time? Is that what you're looking for, to just sit back and wait for Andy to share some steam so that you can run to the windows and collect some easy money? When his plays don't pan out he pays the price for it, just like we all do. We sink or swim based on our own merits. Most of the plays being talked about are dynamic and involve some board watching so he may not even know about the play until minutes before post. Do you all expect him to come on and say I'm playing so and so first time starter really hard due to the heavy board action? What happen if that horse runs up the track? What would the comments be from you people? I can hear the ungrateful now, "Andy is a bum, he steered us wrong, he owes us" BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.

For me I am much more interested in what he has been doing on this board which is to be generous with his thought process and methods and imparting to others what it has taken for him to get where he is, what dues you have to pay. I'm not looking for a gift, a tip, a handout. I want to learn how to improve my own ROI, how to be able to spot these types of situations on my own.

Sorry if it comes across as strident but frankly speaking do your own work, instead of looking for a handout.

paisjpq 03-12-2007 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
I personally can not believe that people on here feel that Andy has some duty to dole out his plays when he thinks there might be a nice one. I would have less repsect for him if he did that. You know what, he has had to work hard and I'm sure pay a price to be in a position to find these nice nuggets sometimes. Good for him. Do you really think that they come in all the time? Is that what you're looking for, to just sit back and wait for Andy to share some steam so that you can run to the windows and collect some easy money? When his plays don't pan out he pays the price for it, just like we all do. We sink or swim based on our own merits. Most of the plays being talked about are dynamic and involve some board watching so he may not even know about the play until minutes before post. Do you all expect him to come on and say I'm playing so and so first time starter really hard due to the heavy board action? What happen if that horse runs up the track? What would the comments be from you people? I can hear the ungrateful now, "Andy is a bum, he steered us wrong, he owes us" BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.

For me I am much more interested in what he has been doing on this board which is to be generous with his thought process and methods and imparting to others what it has taken for him to get where he is, what dues you have to pay. I'm not looking for a gift, a tip, a handout. I want to learn how to improve my own ROI, how to be able to spot these types of situations on my own.

Sorry if it comes across as strident but frankly speaking do your own work, instead of looking for a handout.

very well put Jim...it seems like so many people play horses with as much care as they play the lottery or the slot machine, which is to say none. (maybe not people here but you know what i mean)
but then when they know someone can handicap they expect that person to dole out winner like answers to a standarized test...not understanding or caring that there isn't always a right answer to be found...they get mad when the tip they didn't pay for and didn't research isn't very good.
if andy never made another post on this board he will still have given out more good info and insight that most people share in a lifetime at the track

dellinger63 03-12-2007 10:37 AM

Look some people in the business and or those who have developed friendships in the business are given what could be inside information in that a certain trainer and connections may know a horse is training well and looks ready for a big effort due to maybe an equipment change or getting over an injury/ medical problem etc. but no one can say he/she will win for sure.

When this info is passed along it's done as a favor or as quid pro quo for information the source will recieve back at a future time. I'm sure the source expects it to be held close to the vest and not broadcasted on a web site with a thousand members. BTW owes nobody on the board anything. It is up to him when and where to give insight and 'give a man a fish, he eats for a day, teach a man to fish and he eats a lifetime.' Go back and listen to him on the archived saturday show and learn to fish a little.

Antitrust32 03-12-2007 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dellinger63
Go back and listen to him on the archived saturday show and learn to fish a little.

is he giving out fly fishing or salt water fishing tips?

dellinger63 03-12-2007 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
is he giving out fly fishing or salt water fishing tips?

recipes

Antitrust32 03-12-2007 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dellinger63
recipes

even better! :p

Thoroughbred Fan 03-12-2007 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dellinger63
Look some people in the business and or those who have developed friendships in the business are given what could be inside information in that a certain trainer and connections may know a horse is training well and looks ready for a big effort due to maybe an equipment change or getting over an injury/ medical problem etc. but no one can say he/she will win for sure.

When this info is passed along it's done as a favor or as quid pro quo for information the source will recieve back at a future time. I'm sure the source expects it to be held close to the vest and not broadcasted on a web site with a thousand members. BTW owes nobody on the board anything. It is up to him when and where to give insight and 'give a man a fish, he eats for a day, teach a man to fish and he eats a lifetime.' Go back and listen to him on the archived saturday show and learn to fish a little.

You are missing the point. This was about as blatant a redboard as ever about a 35-1 shot. All I said was, why didn't you give it out. He seems to come on here and bellyache about redboarding, but then he goes and does it. I don't doubt some feel he is a good handicapper or that he hit a 35-1 shot. Just give it out ahead of time or don't post it at all. As for paying for picks.....Oracle is that you? LOL!

randallscott35 03-12-2007 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
I personally can not believe that people on here feel that Andy has some duty to dole out his plays when he thinks there might be a nice one. I would have less repsect for him if he did that. You know what, he has had to work hard and I'm sure pay a price to be in a position to find these nice nuggets sometimes. Good for him. Do you really think that they come in all the time? Is that what you're looking for, to just sit back and wait for Andy to share some steam so that you can run to the windows and collect some easy money? When his plays don't pan out he pays the price for it, just like we all do. We sink or swim based on our own merits. Most of the plays being talked about are dynamic and involve some board watching so he may not even know about the play until minutes before post. Do you all expect him to come on and say I'm playing so and so first time starter really hard due to the heavy board action? What happen if that horse runs up the track? What would the comments be from you people? I can hear the ungrateful now, "Andy is a bum, he steered us wrong, he owes us" BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.

For me I am much more interested in what he has been doing on this board which is to be generous with his thought process and methods and imparting to others what it has taken for him to get where he is, what dues you have to pay. I'm not looking for a gift, a tip, a handout. I want to learn how to improve my own ROI, how to be able to spot these types of situations on my own.

Sorry if it comes across as strident but frankly speaking do your own work, instead of looking for a handout.

Which is precisely why I said you should do the work yourself and pick yourself and not follow anyone else's picks and sure as hell not pay for them...If you can't handicap and need to pay for picks, you shouldn't be playing...I'm shocked by how many people follow other each other's plays on here...Don't get me wrong, there are a lot of excellent handicappers here, but why put your money on the line on a horse who you didn't come up with. Strange.

SCUDSBROTHER 03-12-2007 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan
You are missing the point. This was about as blatant a redboard as ever about a 35-1 shot. All I said was, why didn't you give it out. He seems to come on here and bellyache about redboarding, but then he goes and does it. I don't doubt some feel he is a good handicapper or that he hit a 35-1 shot. Just give it out ahead of time or don't post it at all. As for paying for picks.....Oracle is that you? LOL!

WE GOT A BINGO HERE!!!!!!!!.....BINGO...BINGO..BINGO.....

Cajungator26 03-12-2007 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan
You are missing the point. This was about as blatant a redboard as ever about a 35-1 shot. All I said was, why didn't you give it out. He seems to come on here and bellyache about redboarding, but then he goes and does it. I don't doubt some feel he is a good handicapper or that he hit a 35-1 shot. Just give it out ahead of time or don't post it at all. As for paying for picks.....Oracle is that you? LOL!

Hardly... get a clue, bud.

10 pnt move up 03-12-2007 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan
You are missing the point. This was about as blatant a redboard as ever about a 35-1 shot. All I said was, why didn't you give it out. He seems to come on here and bellyache about redboarding, but then he goes and does it. I don't doubt some feel he is a good handicapper or that he hit a 35-1 shot. Just give it out ahead of time or don't post it at all. As for paying for picks.....Oracle is that you? LOL!

Isnt it a bit different using a story to support your point and that you offer it up 2 months after it happened?

"I dont doubt some feel he hit the 35-1 shot"........is it your contention that he did not? Let me guess you need proof, Fastracehorses is that you?

Holland Hacker 03-12-2007 11:39 AM

Thanks for all of the replies. I guess the take away for me is that work out times should be taken with a grain of salt, and not gospel. I will focus more on the work out pattern instead of the speed of the workouts. This should be helpful as more 3 YO make their debuts and the start of the 2 YO arrived later in the year.

I guess the fact that this happend in the third leg of the pick 4 is what really upset me. I guess I should have capitalized on the exacta and tri in the race itself. Oh well chalk it up to a valuable lesson learned.

With respect to Andy not giving out his picks here that is his choice. I know I have profited from his "gracious" comments and the back and forth we have had on some of the picks I have posted on this forum.

I guess my point is that I would rather of have done the handicapping myself and made some adjustments based on some of his or Steve's insights. That is afterall how I am going to learn and get better at this game. Not by betting someone elses picks blindly, not that I haven't done that. I think the learning process is what has drawn me in and kept me on this forum.

Hopefully some day I will be able to hadnicap half as well as either Steve and Andy do today.

ArlJim78 03-12-2007 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan
You are missing the point. This was about as blatant a redboard as ever about a 35-1 shot. All I said was, why didn't you give it out. He seems to come on here and bellyache about redboarding, but then he goes and does it. I don't doubt some feel he is a good handicapper or that he hit a 35-1 shot. Just give it out ahead of time or don't post it at all. As for paying for picks.....Oracle is that you? LOL!

I disagree entirely with your "give it out ahead of time or don't post it at all" suggestion and that was not a blatant redboard. That play was given as part of an anecdote explaining how you need to pay attention to a stables actions in order to make a nice score. It was a historical account. If we can't come on here and discuss good or bad plays we've made in the past what kind of forum is this?

We've all seen red-boarding in action. Andy most assuredly has no appetite for that type of thing.

Cajungator26 03-12-2007 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Holland Hacker
Thanks for all of the replies. I guess the take away for me is that work out times should be taken with a grain of salt, and not gospel. I will focus more on the work out pattern instead of the speed of the workouts. This should be helpful as more 3 YO make their debuts and the start of the 2 YO arrived later in the year.

I guess the fact that this happend in the third leg of the pick 4 is what really upset me. I guess I should have capitalized on the exacta and tri in the race itself. Oh well chalk it up to a valuable lesson learned.

With respect to Andy not giving out his picks here that is his choice. I know I have profited from his "gracious" comments and the back and forth we have had on some of the picks I have posted on this forum.

I guess my point is that I would rather of have done the handicapping myself and made some adjustments based on some of his or Steve's insights. That is afterall how I am going to learn and get better at this game. Not by betting someone elses picks blindly, not that I haven't done that. I think the learning process is what has drawn me in and kept me on this forum.

Hopefully some day I will be able to handicap half as well as either Steve and Andy do today.

I couldn't have said this any better myself. This is PRECISELY why I'm on this board as well. The bantering back and forth amongst members of this forum is priceless, and the knowledge one can learn just by reading is unbelievable.

dellinger63 03-12-2007 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thoroughbred Fan
You are missing the point. This was about as blatant a redboard as ever about a 35-1 shot. All I said was, why didn't you give it out. He seems to come on here and bellyache about redboarding, but then he goes and does it. I don't doubt some feel he is a good handicapper or that he hit a 35-1 shot. Just give it out ahead of time or don't post it at all. As for paying for picks.....Oracle is that you? LOL!

God I thought you got the PM like the rest of us did from BTW saying it was the 2000 star play of the day. LOL

Antitrust32 03-12-2007 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
I couldn't have said this any better myself. This is PRECISELY why I'm on this board as well. The bantering back and forth amongst members of this forum is priceless, and the knowledge one can learn just by reading is unbelievable.

oh really...?

:rolleyes:

Sightseek 03-12-2007 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dellinger63
God I thought you got the PM like the rest of us did from BTW saying it was the 2000 star play of the day. LOL

but wasn't he supposed to take us all by the hand one by one and lead us up to the window too?

Cajungator26 03-12-2007 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32
oh really...?

:rolleyes:

Here we go again... :p You know I'm only on here for you, dawlin'.

Antitrust32 03-12-2007 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Here we go again... :p You know I'm only on here for you, dawlin'.

that's right ;)

lol... we cant get going again though.. not like yesterday at lunch.. we'd be banned in 5 seconds! poor gales..

:eek:

SCUDSBROTHER 03-12-2007 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
I couldn't have said this any better myself. This is PRECISELY why I'm on this board as well. The bantering back and forth amongst members of this forum is priceless, and the knowledge one can learn just by reading is unbelievable.


Be much better if you didn't delete half the posts that you deem negative about your friends.You gunna turn this into a f'n Mickey Mouse Club?


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