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-   -   kip devile 9/2 vs. showing up 6/1 (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1010)

blackthroatedwind 06-20-2006 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
No good trainer goes asking clockers how their horse is doing. They know. I remember for the Derby my friend telling me how the clockers didn't even pick up one of Barbaro's works. These clockers are good at what they do, but unless they know what a trainer wants out of the work it is pointless. Also, clockers at belmont see a horse work over the turf one day a week, on Sunday mornings. If it was dirt I would say the clockers know their stuff, but turf works are so rare that no clocker could give an honest opinion on how a horse worked. Showing Up has completely different action on the turf, not the same horse as on the dirt.

You are flat out wrong. Like any business, there is a great disparity between the relative talents of different people doing the same thing, and there are many trainers ( many top trainers ) who are very interested in the opinions of SOME private clockers ( and some handicappers ). And, in the case of the person being discussed here, his opinions are valued by many. And, I say this not as his friend, because while we are very friendly, we are hardly what you would consider friends.

Trainers can be very interested in the opinions of outsiders whom they respect. The smart person knows enough to learn from those around him ( or her ).

boldruler 06-20-2006 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Better give Zito a call and explain to him that hes not a good trainer. Then call Kimmel, call Dutrow, call Frankel, etc. He was a trainer, thats why hes the best. he does understand everything.


I guess he just makes more as a clocker now, right? LOL.

blackthroatedwind 06-20-2006 03:33 PM

It was already stated that he USED to be a trainer...and a very good one at that.

boldruler 06-20-2006 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
You are flat out wrong. Like any business, there is a great disparity between the relative talents of different people doing the same thing, and there are many trainers ( many top trainers ) who are very interested in the opinions of SOME private clockers ( and some handicappers ). And, in the case of the person being discussed here, his opinions are valued by many. And, I say this not as his friend, because while we are very friendly, we are hardly what you would consider friends.

Trainers can be very interested in the opinions of outsiders whom they respect. The smart person knows enough to learn from those around him ( or her ).

Maybe clockers are more knowledgeable than my friend, but I rather have the $100K to put up for a stud fee than have $500 to bet on the third at Aqueduct. People that really know the horse business are on the breeding side, where all the money is. The money in the breeding game dwarfs the racing game.

boldruler 06-20-2006 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It was already stated that he USED to be a trainer...and a very good one at that.

Why is he now a clocker? Can't be more money in that than being a top trainer?

Cajungator26 06-20-2006 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
Maybe clockers are more knowledgeable than my friend, but I rather have the $100K to put up for a stud fee than have $500 to bet on the third at Aqueduct. People that really know the horse business are on the breeding side, where all the money is. The money in the breeding game dwarfs the racing game.

But what does that have to do with Showing Up at this point? :confused:

blackthroatedwind 06-20-2006 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
Maybe clockers are more knowledgeable than my friend, but I rather have the $100K to put up for a stud fee than have $500 to bet on the third at Aqueduct. People that really know the horse business are on the breeding side, where all the money is. The money in the breeding game dwarfs the racing game.

First of all, nobody said " clockers ", we are discussing one individual here, and it was simply stated that he is extremely knowledgable.

Secondly, because there is more money on the breeding side, does not make these people more knowledgable about the game.

boldruler 06-20-2006 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
No, I can assure you he does not know more. As a matter of fact, the clocker I refer to made close to 60 thousand dollars betting Barbaro that day and called him before the race to be the biggest cinch he ever saw in his life off his last work. Its only because he told me that that i used him on top in the trifecta(the 11,500 trifecta). In turn I helped him by telling him to make sure he used Stepp underneath.
I just called him right this minute toask him about the two grass works that he had and he said that they were very good and that he was a very live horse on saturday. I then asked him if off those workouts if he thought the horse compared to English Channel now(you said he was better) and he began to howl and laugh. He asked why i would ask that so I explained. He asked me where I find nuts like that.

60K is a lot of money to me, but to guys like my friend in the breeding game it is pocket change. They are dealing with that type of money, and often a lot more, just on one visit to the shed.

eurobounce 06-20-2006 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
But what does that have to do with Showing Up at this point? :confused:

I am with you Cajun. Maybe it was a personal decision he became a clocker. Who knows, but Showing Up in not going to win this race.

blackthroatedwind 06-20-2006 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
Why is he now a clocker? Can't be more money in that than being a top trainer?

Maybe he likes what he's doing. Maybe he isn't only in it for the money. Maybe, like many of us, he hasn't made the best choice for his talents.

Regardless, non of this takes away from his immense knowledge of the game or the great respect he has earned.

Equating money with success is more than just a slippery slope.

boldruler 06-20-2006 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
But what does that have to do with Showing Up at this point? :confused:

My friend, the guy who said Barbaro would win easily in the derby said Showing Up is just an easy a cinch here. That was the point. It somehow got into how Oracle knows everything and everyone and is the master of everything. Nothing new here. As usual, he had to start with his calling people idiots.

boldruler 06-20-2006 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Maybe he likes what he's doing. Maybe he isn't only in it for the money. Maybe, like many of us, he hasn't made the best choice for his talents.

Regardless, non of this takes away from his immense knowledge of the game or the great respect he has earned.

Equating money with success is more than just a slippery slope.

Sorry, but in horse racing money is success. Not in life, but definitely in horse racing.

Cajungator26 06-20-2006 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
My friend, the guy who said Barbaro would win easily in the derby said Showing Up is just an easy a cinch here. That was the point. It somehow got into how Oracle knows everything and everyone and is the master of everything. Nothing new here.

You brought up the breeding side of things though... I can definitely see how most of the money is in the breeding shed, but I will tell you this, without the egg, the chicken never hatches. Does that make any sense? Without the racing industry, the breeding doesn't survive. So, in a nut shell, you can't have one without the other. ;)

blackthroatedwind 06-20-2006 03:42 PM

Not necessarily. Many people are in this game for a whole variety of reasons and money is not one of them. Success is a very nebulous concept, and can mean a lot of different things to different people, and believe it or not, how much money one makes is not the measure of success for everybody.

boldruler 06-20-2006 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
You brought up the breeding side of things though... I can definitely see how most of the money is in the breeding shed, but I will tell you this, without the egg, the chicken never hatches. Does that make any sense? Without the racing industry, the breeding doesn't survive. So, in a nut shell, you can't have one without the other. ;)

My point was that people that really know horses tend to be more on the breeding/bloodstock side of things. They have to be, there is just much more money there. Someone like Demi Obyrne isn't a trainer, but a vet/bloodstock guy. Clockers are much less inclined to know how a horse will run first out on the turf than a guy who is on the breeding/bloodstock side of the game.

boldruler 06-20-2006 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Not necessarily. Many people are in this game for a whole variety of reasons and money is not one of them. Success is a very nebulous concept, and can mean a lot of different things to different people, and believe it or not, how much money one makes is not the measure of success for everybody.

There are purses and stud fees for a reason. They keep million dollar horses alive and send cheap horses off to be slaughtered because of money. Money runs the game.

Gander 06-20-2006 03:47 PM

Yes but lets be real, the majority of the people on this board are gamblers and are in this for the juice. Call it what you want and pretend to be into the breeding but what it comes down to is the juice :cool:

Cajungator26 06-20-2006 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
My point was that people that really know horses tend to be more on the breeding/bloodstock side of things. They have to be, there is just much more money there. Someone like Demi Obyrne isn't a trainer, but a vet/bloodstock guy. Clockers are much less inclined to know how a horse will run first out on the turf than a guy who is on the breeding/bloodstock side of the game.

Perhaps, but if you're comparing individuals, I would say it's a safe bet that Joe knows his stuff as well. Clockers as a general rule of thumb may not know as much, but I think that this guy Joe is more than your average clocker.

blackthroatedwind 06-20-2006 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
My point was that people that really know horses tend to be more on the breeding/bloodstock side of things. They have to be, there is just much more money there. Someone like Demi Obyrne isn't a trainer, but a vet/bloodstock guy. Clockers are much less inclined to know how a horse will run first out on the turf than a guy who is on the breeding/bloodstock side of the game.

Many of us in this game have high levels of expertise in very differing parts of the game. While using the generic term " clockers " there may be some truth to what you just wrote, but specifics are much more important, and relevent, to this conversation, and there are some, one specifically that comes to my mind, who probably has as good, and likely better, an idea of how a horse will handle the grass in a racing situation that almost anyone on the breeding/bloodstock side of things. Oddly, for that reason, many people on the other side are very interested in his opinions.

There are a lot of trainers who ask me my opinions of their horses, both generally and specifically. I don't presuppose to know anything close to what they know about training, but they also know that I may have a good idea about the relative chances of their horses, and I'm unbiased.

oracle80 06-20-2006 03:52 PM

Bold ruler,
I think I speak for many when I say we have tired, to say the least, hearing about your big friends in the breeding game. There isn't a person I have claimed to know or have done work for who i haven't. Not one. And as far as having friends in breeding, you are gona have to go real far to impress me. Knowing these people is part of being in the game. I have a friend who owns quite a presitigious farm in Ky, as in one of the best. I brought him a horse early in 2005 and told him I thought he should go after the breeding rights of this animal befoer anyone knew who he was. he did not. he called me last summer out of the blue after the horse had become "known" to say the least and asked me to go after his breeding rights for him as agent. I was stunned to say the least. I worked very hard with sleepless nights for over a week. I did not and will not disclose the client, the horse we went after, or any details. lets just say the only guy i shared it with was Steve(Kasept) just to see the look on his face when I showed him the offer and how many zeroes it had(steve would never tell anyone anything). Alas, we had the high bid, but the owner changed his mind and decided not to sell the breeding rights at that time.
I guess my point is that that does not make me any better than anyone, or make me anything for that matter. But if you think you are impressing all of us with your friendship with rich folk, think again. I'm quite sure that my breeding friend could pretty much buy and sell anyone you may be referring to unless you are down with tabor or the Arabs. I also know of at least one board member whose close friend could pretty much buy anyone you know, ANYONE!!!!!!!!!
The references to the rich and powerful people you know may not be intended to assert that you have privilege but they are certainly coming off that way. Its definitely not attractive.

oracle80 06-20-2006 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
My point was that people that really know horses tend to be more on the breeding/bloodstock side of things. They have to be, there is just much more money there. Someone like Demi Obyrne isn't a trainer, but a vet/bloodstock guy. Clockers are much less inclined to know how a horse will run first out on the turf than a guy who is on the breeding/bloodstock side of the game.

How is taht exactly? Thats utter nonsense. Pardon me but now you are really clueless!! How could a bloddstock agent know better than an experienced trainer/clocker who actually SEES the horse WORK!!!!?????

boldruler 06-20-2006 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Bold ruler,
I think I speak for many when I say we have tired, to say the least, hearing about your big friends in the breeding game. There isn't a person I have claimed to know or have done work for who i haven't. Not one. And as far as having friends in breeding, you are gona have to go real far to impress me. Knowing these people is part of being in the game. I have a friend who owns quite a presitigious farm in Ky, as in one of the best. I brought him a horse early in 2005 and told him I thought he should go after the breeding rights of this animal befoer anyone knew who he was. he did not. he called me last summer out of the blue after the horse had become "known" to say the least and asked me to go after his breeding rights for him as agent. I was stunned to say the least. I worked very hard with sleepless nights for over a week. I did not and will not disclose the client, the horse we went after, or any details. lets just say the only guy i shared it with was Steve(Kasept) just to see the look on his face when I showed him the offer and how many zeroes it had(steve would never tell anyone anything). Alas, we had the high bid, but the owner changed his mind and decided not to sell the breeding rights at that time.
I guess my point is that that does not make me any better than anyone, or make me anything for that matter. But if you think you are impressing all of us with your friendship with rich folk, think again. I'm quite sure that my breeding friend could pretty much buy and sell anyone you may be referring to unless you are down with tabor or the Arabs. I also know of at least one board member whose close friend could pretty much buy anyone you know, ANYONE!!!!!!!!!
The references to the rich and powerful people you know may not be intended to assert that you have privilege but they are certainly coming off that way. Its definitely not attractive.

Oh, ok Mrs. Lansdon Robbins III. If I had a dollar for every time you mentioned his name I would be retired by now. :) I work for a living and I talk about horses that I have met. I only mention my friend when talking about why I have heard about Showing Up. You are the insecure little man that needs to call everyone stupid. Trust me, I have you by a few IQ points.

Gander 06-20-2006 03:57 PM

Yes, talk of rich people is just completely boring and WE DONT CARE! I dont care if your friend has a yacht in the Bering Strait. Does it put milk on my cereal, nope.

We just want winners. Lets get back to talking about racing and horses in races, shall we. Save the boring talk of rich granny and her fancy english tea parties for people who actually care. :confused:

oracle80 06-20-2006 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
Oh, ok Mrs. Lansdon Robbins III. If I had a dollar for every time you mentioned his name I would be retired by now. :) I work for a living and I talk about horses that I have met. I only mention my friend when talking about why I have heard about Showing Up. You are the insecure little man that needs to call everyone stupid. Trust me, I have you by a few IQ points.

I'm not talking about Lansdon. Not even close. And he doesnt own a farm.

oracle80 06-20-2006 03:59 PM

Ruler the problem with people like you is that you tend to make judgements about people you know nothing about, or , to use the old cliche, you judge a book by its cover. Again, I won't talk about who this friend is, but its not lansdon.

boldruler 06-20-2006 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
How is taht exactly? Thats utter nonsense. Pardon me but now you are really clueless!! How could a bloddstock agent know better than an experienced trainer/clocker who actually SEES the horse WORK!!!!?????

Well considering they are looking to buy the horse when he retires, I think he knows a little more about him than some guy who saw him 2-3x in the morning.

oracle80 06-20-2006 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
Well considering they are looking to buy the horse when he retires, I think he knows a little more about him than some guy who saw him 2-3x in the morning.

LOL!!! You can only know what you SEE!!! Are you suggesting that some of these folks you know have super powers to enable them to see what everyone else hasn't?

SentToStud 06-20-2006 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
There are purses and stud fees for a reason. They keep million dollar horses alive and send cheap horses off to be slaughtered because of money. Money runs the game.

You slay me. I've read your three days of psychobabble about this horse and conclusively determined:
1. You're really upset you didn't bet Barbaro in the Derby.
2. You're also p.o.'d people like Oracle and me (I gave out my play two days before the race on ESPN) hit the Derby tri while you were ripping your tickets up (SNS? SNS?? You bet SNS?!?)
3. You missed the wedding with your friend on Barbaro and there's nothing that will keep you from the funeral with this horse (bad gamblier written all over this)
4. One day you say this horse will be 2-1, next day it's 4-1, finally it's 3-1.
5. You know some people with money. BFD.
6. Talk is cheap.... You want action? I'll give you even money your horse doesn't run 1-2-3. $5k tops. You say yes, I'll drive or fly to Colonial to meet you.

The obviously unfortunate worst part is you are chasing after your friend's friend's next horse after you didn't bet his Derby winner tout.

Get in the game. You sound ridiculous.

boldruler 06-20-2006 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
LOL!!! You can only know what you SEE!!! Are you suggesting that some of these folks you know have super powers to enable them to see what everyone else hasn't?

The great thing about this argument is that like the derby, some horse is going to win. If Showing Up romps I guess you and your clocker friends must be wrong on this one.

Cajungator26 06-20-2006 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
Well considering they are looking to buy the horse when he retires, I think he knows a little more about him than some guy who saw him 2-3x in the morning.

Ruler, as I'm sure you know, some of the greatest racehorses on the track didn't do diddly squat in the breeding shed. It would be my judgement that most breeding people are smart enough to look beyond a horse's race record and look at his conformation and bloodlines. Wouldn't you say that is correct?

Cajungator26 06-20-2006 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
The great thing about this argument is that like the derby, some horse is going to win. If Showing Up romps I guess you and your clocker friends must be wrong on this one.

You need to go back and read what his clocker "friend" said... he thought Showing Up and Roman Dynasty were BOTH live horses in this race. He liked Showing Up in this race.

oracle80 06-20-2006 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
The great thing about this argument is that like the derby, some horse is going to win. If Showing Up romps I guess you and your clocker friends must be wrong on this one.

there you go attemtping to twist words again, well I suppose it beats trying to impress me with "big breeders".
My clocker and friend specifically said that he thinks those two works were VERY good, and that he is a live horse. he ceratinly didn't say that he would not win. He said in his opinion the best two workers were Showing Up and Roman Dynasty and if put to th test he would take Dynasty.

boldruler 06-20-2006 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
You slay me. I've read your three days of psychobabble about this horse and conclusively determined:
1. You're really upset you didn't bet Barbaro in the Derby.
2. You're also p.o.'d people like Oracle and me (I gave out my play two days before the race on ESPN) hit the Derby tri while you were ripping your tickets up (SNS? SNS?? You bet SNS?!?)
3. You missed the wedding with your friend on Barbaro and there's nothing that will keep you from the funeral with this horse (bad gamblier written all over this)
4. One day you say this horse will be 2-1, next day it's 4-1, finally it's 3-1.
5. You know some people with money. BFD.
6. Talk is cheap.... You want action? I'll give you even money your horse doesn't run 1-2-3. $5k tops. You say yes, I'll drive or fly to Colonial to meet you.

The obviously unfortunate worst part is you are chasing after your friend's friend's next horse after you didn't bet his Derby winner tout.

Get in the game. You sound ridiculous.

1 YES.
2 Maybe deep down it is a possibility
3 No. His brother won me $14K last weekend once I finally got over the unfairness of using inside information and I no longer feel guilty taking money from people that had no chance.
4 I say he will be between 2-1 and 4-1
5 I have talked about my friend 1/1000 as much as Oracle and Lansdon Robbins III. If I was into impressing people I would just use their family name. The fact is everyone in the breeding business has money.
6 I will gladly take your $5K. In fact, I will send you a private message with my contact info and we can work something out.

boldruler 06-20-2006 04:14 PM

Senttostud, I just sent you my contact info. Fortunately I have the cash from last weekend. Showing Up finishing 1-3 is easy money. The horse is better on the turf and he has won every race except the derby, where he was on the lead with 1/8th to go.

oracle80 06-20-2006 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
1 YES.
2 Maybe deep down it is a possibility
3 No. His brother won me $14K last weekend once I finally got over the unfairness of using inside information and I no longer feel guilty taking money from people that had no chance.
4 I say he will be between 2-1 and 4-1
5 I have talked about my friend 1/1000 as much as Oracle and Lansdon Robbins III. If I was into impressing people I would just use their family name. The fact is everyone in the breeding business has money.
6 I will gladly take your $5K. In fact, I will send you a private message with my contact info and we can work something out.

You may have noticed that i don't courtsey when i say lans name. Thats because he is a friend. I sure don't refer to him in the mother******* third person as if he is some super elite top secret guy I am priviledged to draw air from in the same room. Kinda guy who has a lot but would rather dress in shorts and drink Coors light out a plastic cup behind Steves BBQ stand at saratoga than dress up in suit and tie like and hang out with phonies in the boxes. And I'm sur their name would impress me, but not as much as my friend's name who I made the offer for last summer would impress you. that just about cover it?

Scav 06-20-2006 04:19 PM

All I know is that you guys better watch out for Lewis Michael, word around Arlington is that he was having palette problems and they finally did the surgery. He is from Justenuffheart, who was a half to Kitten's Joy (Calabrese/Catalano also have Lewis Michael full sister, a 2 year old this year, Dreaming of Anna).....Horse is bred to run all day....odds won't be that good but Calabrese wouldn't be going if he wasn't going to run well. When Catalano ships for Calabrese, they usually run huge.....

boldruler 06-20-2006 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
You may have noticed that i don't courtsey when i say lans name. Thats because he is a friend. I sure don't refer to him in the mother******* third person as if he is some super elite top secret guy I am priviledged to draw air from in the same room. Kinda guy who has a lot but would rather dress in shorts and drink Coors light out a plastic cup behind Steves BBQ stand at saratoga than dress up in suit and tie like and hang out with phonies in the boxes. And I'm sur their name would impress me, but not as much as my friend's name who I made the offer for last summer would impress you. that just about cover it?

Most people in the horse business are like your friend. Not everyone is a Whitney or a Phipps (although there children really are nice people). The Jacksons are some of the nicest people I have ever met. Mr. Jackson can talk baseball for hours. In fact, almost all of the big names connected to Pennsylvania are down to earth people.

boldruler 06-20-2006 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
All I know is that you guys better watch out for Lewis Michael, word around Arlington is that he was having palette problems and they finally did the surgery. He is from Justenuffheart, who was a half to Kitten's Joy (Calabrese/Catalano also have Lewis Michael full sister, a 2 year old this year, Dreaming of Anna).....Horse is bred to run all day....odds won't be that good but Calabrese wouldn't be going if he wasn't going to run well. When Catalano ships for Calabrese, they usually run huge.....

He could be a problem if he wasn't running against a future turf star. In fact the concern at the barn is the won't get back on the dirt for the Travers because he is going to have to run in the Secretariat at Arlington. I will be at that race if he wins the first two, so hopefully we can meet and say hello.

Cajungator26 06-20-2006 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
All I know is that you guys better watch out for Lewis Michael, word around Arlington is that he was having palette problems and they finally did the surgery. He is from Justenuffheart, who was a half to Kitten's Joy (Calabrese/Catalano also have Lewis Michael full sister, a 2 year old this year, Dreaming of Anna).....Horse is bred to run all day....odds won't be that good but Calabrese wouldn't be going if he wasn't going to run well. When Catalano ships for Calabrese, they usually run huge.....

Thanks for the info, Scavs. I liked him in the Peter Pan. Looking forward to seeing him run on the grass too.

Gander 06-20-2006 04:27 PM

I think Rock Lobster runs real well in here. Not sure if he has ever run at Colonial but that shouldnt matter, most of these probably havent, especially the real contenders. I saw this horse's last race on KY Derby Day and I was very impressed.


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