I enjoy the race when I have a betting interest. Even if my horse doesn't win I still get excited when it comes off the turn and either is in front and I'm hoping it holds on or is off the pace and I'm hoping it will fire. So if I'm going to lose a bet I'd much prefer it be that way where I at least get that moment of excitement as opposed to picking up a DRF and seeing the horse I bet was injured and off the Derby trail.

Dumb question: Where do you go to bet future pools? In other words, does this bet go "strictly through Vegas"?

Thanks, I never really have thought much about the futures, but if I can bet them at the track, I might give it a shot.

From 2000 - 2006, the percentage of Pool 1 horses that actually make the starting gate is 38.5% (62 of a possible 161).

Keep in mind that the maximum that could reach the starting gate is 14/23, or 61%.

The horses that do not reach the starting gate are either injured or have shown they are not good enough, or, less likely, have failed to earn enough money to get in. These are all factors which can be capped.

Betting a parimutual future is very similar to betting a race. Aside from the time value of money that Sniper mentioned, the only real question is whether you can make use of the available info better than the other bettors. This is the same question you should be asking yourself with every bet.

--Dunbar

You are quoting odds on loosers. The object is to pick winners.If tou use the math there are always more bad odds loosers. Im not promoting future bets but your logic is a bad comparison.

Capital OTB allows you to bet at the parlors themselves

20/23, 87%.
Hell would freeze over before that happens, of course.

Oops, thanks for the correction, Phil. I forgot about the stampede.

--Dunbar

Futures bets is a sucker bet, or a gimmick bet, but I still enjoy making some every year. I know all the disadvantages of making them, but I still consider it "entertainment money" when making a few wagers in Vegas on possibe Derby contenders.
It's more of something fun to do, rather than something where you're only enjoyment is a positive ROI.
I made the following bets in NOV. and DEC. this year (and one in January).
I try to only take a horse that's over 50-1, knowing I could probably get 15-30-1 on a horse with an equal chance of winning on Derby day.
Notional 75-1
Sam P 125-1
Dilemma 75-1
Any Given Saturday 40-1
Officer Rocket 150-1
Mercantile 150-1
Day Pass 60-1
Great Hunter 40-1
EZ Warrior 60-1
Les Grand Trios 75-1
Came to Pass 100-1
At $10 each, that's $110 I'll probably never see again. But it's still fun to follow the horses the next couple months, and hopefully, have a few on Derby day that would cash big if I win.

Keep in mind that this year, because of internet ban, these pools should grow tremendously......not a huge fan of it but I might throw a couple wagers down on it

A little more info for you:

There will be 3 chances to bet on the Derby future pool at your local racetrack/OTB.

Pool 1 Feb 8 (opens at 12 pm EST) - Feb 11 (closes at 6 pm EST)
Pool 2 Mar 8 (opens at 12 pm EST) - Mar 11 (closes at 6 pm EST)
Pool 3 Apr 12 (opens at 12 pm EST) - Apr 15 (closes at 6 pm EST)

These are the only days to place a future wager at your local racetrack/OTB. The final odds for each pool are set after betting closes on the final day of each pool. If you place your bet on Saturday and the odds are 25-1 on your horse, you are not assured of getting 25-1 odds. The final odds are displayed Sunday after the pool closes. Those odds will not change from that point on.

Each pool contains 23 individual betting interests, and a 'field' which includes every horse not listed (#24). The 'field' is a very popular wager, especially in Pool 1, since you get about 300 some horses. The field (#24) is the likely favorite in Pool 1.

As you get closer to the Derby (i.e. Pool 3), most of the horses likely to run in the Derby are identified. Generally speaking, it is less likely that a 'field' entry from Pool 3 will run in the Derby than from Pool 1 or 2.

If your horse does not run in the Derby (a very likely scenario), you lose. You do not get a refund. There is no cancelling your bet once it is placed.

It is possible to cancel a ticket if an error is made, but Churchill Downs is getting very selective in what is cancelled and why - basically if the teller screws up and you notice it immediately you stand a chance of getting a cancellation. If you walk away from the window, the ticket is yours.

Here is a link to the 'official' site of the 2007 Derby:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/

There you can find 'real time' odds, the final odds once the pool closes, and info on some of the top horses.

What are people's thoughts on Street Sense breaking 'the Curse'?

That BC Juvenile race still looks like the best race any of these horses has run. We haven't seen him yet this year. Sounds like he will point for the Hutcheson and the Bluegrass.

I'm not exactly drooling over the 12-1 morning line.... but come Derby day that could look like a bargain.

He might be vulnerable in the 7 1/2 f Hutcheson. Not sure that distance is going to play to his running style. Perhaps there are better odds to be had in Pool 2?

free PP's are available at DRF for the 23 individual entries:

http://drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2007...y_23_pool1.pdf

--Dunbar

i am going with $20 on great hunter, and $20 on circular quay.

I can't seem to find the live odds anywhere on the Derby website.

Pool isn't open yet.

Agreed. Throwing $40 on Great Hunter as I think he might develop this spring and hoping to get a better price than I will in May. Wish CP West was a single entry instead of field. Thats my bomb