Derby Trail Forums - Yesterday, did anybody

Quote:

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

I wasn't going to bring this up because I know u should never do this, but I need someone to talk sense into me. I was getting killed at the window, and was gonna leave and place a few bets. I loved Perfect Drift, but wasn't sure if PD was good for the win. I decided to do a 1 dollar exacta PD/all and another 1 dollar exacta all/PD. I cancelled because all I could see was a PD, BB, and BH finish which was chalky. I cancelled those two bets and put 40 bucks total to win on Perfect Drift only to get an empty feeling inside, it sucks!

You are only going to remember the "cancels" that end up paying. There have probably been lots of bets you almost made that ended up losing. If not, there certainly will be in the future.

The same thing happens in other types of betting. Poker players toss in a marginal pre-flop hand and grimace when the flop would have given them the nut flush or a freakish full house. They forget all the money they saved by throwing in other marginal hands that hit nothing on the flop.

Was there anything wrong in your logic? If you really liked PD and thought the rest of the field all had a chance, then PD/ALL and ALL/PD might make sense. But I don't see anything wrong with deciding that BB and BH dominated the rest of the field. You were getting almost 11-1 on PD. There's nothing wrong with deciding that a win bet was your best value.

btw, I lost my biggest bet of the weekend on that race: I took the matchup of Brass Hat + Love Of Money over BB. Lost my bet when BB got his nose in front of BH's nose at the wire.

--Dunbar