i'm not "missing" the point, i'm just talking about a 3-2 shot that i envision having more than a 35% chance of winning. when i'm talking about it, i'm thinking big favorites who SHOULD win, meaning that you decide there is more than a "regular" favorites chance of winning (35%-ish).

I am acutely aware of the odds-board vs. perceived likelihood of winning like you've described above. we're just talking about seeing a 3-2 favorite in a different way. if i like a 3-2 favorite generally i'm talking about a horse that i don't see likely losing, if i don't like him on paper it's still going to be obvious without looking at the board that he's a huge favorite -- at which point i know in advance that he's a huge underlay, so it becomes a moot point because i don't need to look at the odds-board and the this entire situation is avoided in the first place. get what i'm saying?

In 2007 I will be a better capper by -

Listening 99% of the time on here when the select few speak and not posting something stupid on that thread

Limiting my action to win bets and pick 3's, no more juice plays on a Thursday evening at Meadowlands Harness or Northfield

When I am at the track / simulcast facility pulling the reins in and just saying no when I need the action that I did not plan on playing

Most important for me - learning everything I can about track bias, form cycle, all those things that can help me in the long run say 10 - 15 years from now become a knowledgable horse player. Today I consider myself a danger, I think I know more then I actually know. However, I get a reality check like clockwork at the windows bringing me back to reality

Well,this is easy.Look at the pick 3 at Turfway tonite in races 9-11

$1 pick 3=$520

$1 win parlay=$912

The pick 3 was roughly $500 short.

So,just by not playing a dime at a track like this will mean you won't get ripped off as much,and that would make you get paid more when you are correct(you need to get paid correctly,and so you need to discipline yourself to stay away from a track like this.)Picking winners is one thing.Getting paid what you deserve can be elusive.The pick 3 on races 10-12 paid exactly what it should(about $100 more for the $1 pick 3 than the $1 win parlay.)Problem would appear to be the 9th race winner.

$1 pick 4 races 9-12=$2,059

$1 win parlay races 9-12=$2,645

The pick 4 was roughly $800-$1,000 short.

Well said.

--Dunbar

You have to be careful with intepreting that statement. That sounds like you would always bet more on 20-1 horses than on 3-1 horses. I'd only do that if I thought my edge was something like 6 -7 times larger on the 20-1 horses than on the 3-1 horses, which is going to occur very rarely.

I'm pretty sure you are talking about how much you would bet on one horse once you've decide you like THAT horse. I'd agree with that; it makes sense to bet more on a particular choice, the higher the odds. But as a rule, as I'm sure you know, bets on 20-1 horses should be a lot less than bets on 3-1 horses.

--Dunbar

No, I don't get what you're saying. You still have to look at the board to make sure the horse isn't going off at 2-5.

Also, you are stretching a lot to put words into the original poster's mouth.

--Dunbar

2007
 

1. continue to work on money management.
2Learn about thorograph sheets.
3In2006 I went to the track about 8 times. This year i will get out more. I always do better when I am there.

I'm pretty sure you are talking about how much you would bet on one horse once you've decide you like THAT horse

Yes I think thats exactly what he is saying. A great example of this is a horse I think both of us liked last week- Bishops Court Hill. I looked at the field the night before and glanced at the morning line odds. He was 6/1 and I thought that would be an excellent overlay if indeed he happened to go off at 6/1, or 5/1 or 7/1 range.

I wasnt playing that day but I was interested in watching this race. Bishop Court Hill opened as the favorite at 2/1 which surprised me. He hung aroung that price for a fairly long time in the betting, and eventually drifted up and went off at 7/2 and won.

Now 7/2 on a horse you think has a great chance to win isnt bad but I wouldnt consider that an overlay or even good value considering his poor form since his win in the Carter, which was on a sloppy track.

Had I bet the race I wouldnt have bet as much to win on him at 7/2 as I would 6/1. That probably would have been a $100 win bet for me but if he was 6 or 7/1 I would have probably doubled that bet.

My first horseracing resolution for the New Year is to never play tri-boxes again.
My 2nd is to play a few pick 3s and 4s. Probably haven't played a half dozen of these in my life, but everyone says they are the best of the exotics.
My 3rd is to keep my own counsel. Have this peculiar habit occasionally of looking at some else's picks and trying to beat them, even if I know they are good picks.

i always look at the tote board before betting. i tend to go over the form the evening before, and i absolutely refuse to bet a horse i chose as one to possibly bet if his odds are low. i might play him in an exotic. but then, i don't generally place just a win bet anyway. if you can't beat the fave, try to find a play underneath to include him with. but i also look over the entire card and try to identify those few absolute sure winners, as i can never forget that the fave only wins about a third of the time. that leaves a lot of vulnerable faves to bet against.
couple years ago at oaklawn, there was a huge bridgejumpers bet on a horse that had run in the tc earlier that year. everyone hammered him only to watch him finish fourth.
i also hit a nice pick three that day, with private emblem being one of my 'sure faves'. he won for fun that day.
i also plan to hit at least one super, as every one i've played i've had three of my four horses in the top four spots, and invariably the last of the four comes fifth.

i have played a couple tris only to see my picks finish one, two, and fourth.

Going the other way and going to play less pic 3's,4's and more win or double bets. I'm going to stay out of races that are part of 3's and 4's that I have no interest in EXCEPT BC day when I usually have an opinion anyway. AND no more races for 20K claiming or less. NONE

well at least that's the plan....

I love that last part. Me too. Never met a new year's resolution I couldn't break.

I've been working on a project for my track for several months. I need to finish it by the opening of Calder in April '07.

I'm looking hard at owner intent/profiling. Stats are widely available regarding trainer performance and "intent," but I've long postulated that successful (and unsuccessful) class moves can be correlated to owner at lower class levels, specificaly limited winner claiming races.

I have a good level of success betting races for claiming non-winners or limited winners from $10k to $25k. I've gotten through my work for 2005 and 2006 in terms of owner impact on performance in these class categories, especially with respect to class drops/raises and race timing (ie, 2nd race at current class after a lower class win 2 back).

The results so far are interesting and very useful. I'm busy working on 2004 now and gathering what I need for 2003.

Unfortunately, I'm missing 3 months of 2003 Calder PPs and charts. That's making it a bit tougher. If anyone has June-Aug 2003 Calder PPs or charts I'd be willing to pay for the package.

good luck in 2007. time flies.

I totally understand that the tote board is very important and can actually be used as a tool. The point that I was trying to make was, that if I look at a race and the horse I like is 3-2 don't go back into the form and try talk myself into a 8-1 shot that all of a sudden looks better. (because he is not 3-2) If I look at a race and the horse I like is 25-1, I don't go back into the form to try to beat him. So why should I do it if the horse is 3-2? I should try to be more creative with my betting and get the most out of the 3-2 shot as possible. Maybe I could single him in a pick 3 or 4. I usually do not bet them but maybe I should start. Most of you people seem like very educated horse players and most of you probably are at the track or OTB every weekend. These days if I get to the track once a month it is alot. So not betting the race is really not an option for me, just because I don't get the opportunity that much. Also I go with a very limited bankroll. So I mainly bet exoctics, mostly exacta's. That's were I feel I could make the most money. The easiest way for me to put it is, I should not try to hit a triple or a homerun every race by tossing or using the 3-2 shot underneath instead of using it as my key horse. If I like that much make a win bet or use him soley on top and be happy with a base hit. Take my small profit and look for another spot. I am tired of ripping up would coulda shoulda tickets and start cashing the ones I should have bet in the first place!

Merry X-mas & Happy New Year

basically, original poster explains it exactly how i've been trying to explain it. perhaps i've worded it poorly, but i've been saying the same thing that the original poster was. don't talk yourself out of the horse you think is going to win just because of the price...find creative ways (like i've been saying, using that horse as a key in exotics to cash in on it) to bet that horse instead of talking yourself out of it for the sake of not playing chalk.

I understand what you're saying but I disagree.

If you're willing to bet a horse at, say, 2-1 and it goes off at 3/2, you really do need to pass the race unless one of the other horses you believe can win is going off at odds significantly higher than your handicaped line.

You can use the Exacta pool to "validate" win odds and spot potential win pool overlays but you are far less likely to such a bet on a short priced hrse than you are for horses in the 6-1 to 10-1 range.

I think the best and only way to win wager is to bet your horse only when it is at some minimum level above what you think "fair" odds are. And as your horse's odds go up further relative to that minimum level, bet more.

If I think a horse's "fair odds" to win are 4-1, I would need 6-1 to wager $1X . If the same horse goes off at 8-1, I would wager $1.1, etc.

If you go to the track infrequently and recreationally and just want some action, just stay within your budget and enjoy the day. There is certainly nothing wrong with that and I still have those kind of days (ie, family day at the track, business lunch at the track, etc...)

But if you wager seriously, you have to be able to wait for the opportunities when your horse is going off at least at the minimum odds level you need to wager. And, more importantly, to increase your wager level when the odds are higher relative to that minimum.

More than how many winners someone catches, it's really about pressing your percieved advantage and bettting larger amounts when your selection is going off at increasingly higher odds.

just one man's opinion.

1. I need to bet only the turf because I'm above average I think in picking them.
2. Stop betting $1 to $5 on races just to watch them run.
3. When I think I have a chance to get a Big One go for it. I've had countless times where if I'd just thrown a little more money into the Kitty I'd be signing.
4. Listen to the wifey more often. I know I'm whipped but she's had some tips and I never listen as much as I should.