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-   -   i have a question about a show (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64658)

blackthroatedwind 07-15-2018 08:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1112561)
The argument about the math only holds water if players didn't change their ticket structure and simply bet half as much as before or hit the old ticket stucture twice. We all can agree that this simply isn't happening from just our own play along thread. They are not all of a sudden better players, they are able to cover more horses and not only high end but mid range you know the 3rd choice that wins when it looks like the top 2 are mortal locks. The algo players exacerbate as it is cheaper for them to cover their combinations which include the longest shots and cheaper for them to bang their shorter plays many multple times.

Think about it like you are a fisherman and all of a sudden all boats are 50% off. You can either buy the same boat at a 50% discount or buy a bigger boat at the same spend. The new boat will allow you to stay on the water longer cover more ground reach fertile fishing grounds.. You buy the bigger boat but alas everyone else did also and suddenly those fertile grounds arent so fertile anymore and the grounds your old boat could reach are barren.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Set_(mathematics)

You do understand that under your example, when they win, they often have the sequence for half as much as they did before....right?

Alabama Stakes 07-15-2018 09:09 AM
Looking for honest answers here
 
Does anyone play the triple in New York way less than they used to because of the paltry payouts ?
Does anyone remember the days of the $2 triple ? Of what it meant when you hit the triple in the last?
To me, if you hit the triple when it was for $2 the payoff was nearly double of what it would be now if you had it 4 times for half a buck. At least the pick 3 is a buck . At keeneland and others where it is fifty cents, they all pay terrible. The dime super is a joke. It's refreshing that on oaks and derby day they make it a buck and offer real value. Does anyone think the super in the derby would have paid so well all these years if you could bet it for a dime ?

$10 clubhouse admission and another $10 for a racing form but only a dime to bet the super and fifty cent triples at Saratoga. This only bothers me and no one else ?

jms62 07-15-2018 09:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1112570)
You do understand that under your example, when they win, they often have the sequence for half as much as they did before....right?
And you fail to acknowledge that folks are playing th same dollar amount tickets covering more combinations causing the split to be lowered. The effect are more people are splitting the pie but you are saying that is the cause they are better players. What would convince you otherwise? If I was able to easily get my hands on data I would do the study but my data only goes back 3 years.

blackthroatedwind 07-15-2018 12:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1112572)
And you fail to acknowledge that folks are playing th same dollar amount tickets covering more combinations causing the split to be lowered. The effect are more people are splitting the pie but you are saying that is the cause they are better players. What would convince you otherwise? If I was able to easily get my hands on data I would do the study but my data only goes back 3 years.
I was responding to YOUR example. Nothing more.


I believe in the laws of mathematics. Nothing is going to change that.

jms62 07-15-2018 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1112581)
I was responding to YOUR example. Nothing more.


I believe in the laws of mathematics. Nothing is going to change that.
Sorry you won’t come to terms that this isn’t a linear mathematical problem. It is now basically a typical Internet argument. You agree with my main argument but have turned it around to be the cause of the issue. My point is and will be forever be that at lower dollar amounts allow players to cast a wider net for their set. Seems to me that you dismiss this and your math issue is based on people betting $75 now all of a sudden bet 37.50 and and getting the same coverage. If that was the case your math would be 100% RIGHT. It isnt the case and we both know it. Please submit any links to any studies that disprove what I am saying. I will gladly pivot if presented with hard evidence showing that I am wrong. Good luck at Saratoga. I will gladly send a drink or 2 in your direction if we wind up in the same place.

blackthroatedwind 07-15-2018 04:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1112585)
Sorry you won’t come to terms that this isn’t a linear mathematical problem. It is now basically a typical Internet argument. You agree with my main argument but have turned it around to be the cause of the issue. My point is and will be forever be that at lower dollar amounts allow players to cast a wider net for their set. Seems to me that you dismiss this and your math issue is based on people betting $75 now all of a sudden bet 37.50 and and getting the same coverage. If that was the case your math would be 100% RIGHT. It isnt the case and we both know it. Please submit any links to any studies that disprove what I am saying. I will gladly pivot if presented with hard evidence showing that I am wrong. Good luck at Saratoga. I will gladly send a drink or 2 in your direction if we wind up in the same place.

I would love to talk about it over drinks. Much easier. Hopefully we can do that this Summer.

Thanks!

taxicab 07-15-2018 09:25 PM
Sort of off subject a bit.....
At the Los Al thoroughbred meet that concluded today, the min wager for the P-4 was raised to $1.00 from .50.
I'm curious if the handle for the P-4 went up or down noticeably...……..I would guess the handle went down.
In the past when tracks have lowered the min's on their multi-slotted wagers the handle has always gone up.
It might be a bit of a tricky read because Calif overall handle has gone up in the last year.
In terms of the .50 mins on P-3's and such, I always thought the reduced number brought in more chalkish type players...….strictly a guess,and I'm not really sure what that would mean for payoffs.
Maybe if the wager had three non double digit winners the under-pay would appear.
But if three healthy priced winners kick in I would guess the payouts would be more than fair.

taxicab 07-15-2018 09:45 PM
Just read this @ Bloodhorse:
Los Al handle +4%.
P-4 handle +2.7%.
Not much of a difference considering Calif has more money going through the windows overall.

Seattleallstar 07-16-2018 12:29 AM
The $.50 pk 4 and pk 5 wager are the best values in racing, especially on big racing days or when there are full competitive fields. I especially love the $.20 pk 4 at woodbine and has paid out rather well imo. For some reason the $1 pk 4 makes sense at Los Al and works best than at any other track.

As far as Trifectas go I am not a fan of the $.50,

I would be in favor of a super5 bet for $.10


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